<h1>State-based armed conflict risk rising, with misinformation and environmental threats compounding geopolitical fragmentation and instability.</h1> State-based armed conflict is identified as the primary immediate global risk for 2025, with misinformation and disinformation as leading short-term threats that undermine social cohesion and governance. Short-term risks also include extreme weather, societal polarization, cyber-espionage and pollution. Over a ten-year horizon, environmental threats-extreme weather, biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and resource shortages-dominate alongside technological risks from AI and persistent disinformation, all occurring within an increasingly multipolar or fragmented global order that strains international cooperation.