New Delhi, Sep 1 (PTI) The Congress on Monday slammed the government over the GDP numbers for April-June 2025, saying they have led to "irrational exuberance" and the “Trump tariff shock” is simply not reflected in them as its real consequence will begin to get felt in the second quarter.

Congress general secretary in-charge communications Jairam Ramesh said the front-loading of exports to the US by exporters attempting to escape tariffs has actually boosted export growth and therefore the headline GDP number.

“The GDP numbers for the period April-June 2025 have led to irrational exuberance. They do present some contradictions that have been highlighted by a respected bank report and that cannot be brushed aside,” Ramesh said on X.

“Urban consumption is still considerably weak and rural consumption still faces structural constraints,” he claimed.

The nominal GDP growth rate, that is, without adjusting for inflation, is still subdued and is, in fact, markedly lower than in the January-Match 2025 quarter, Ramesh said.

“Consumption, investment and trade are the determinants of GDP growth. But mysteriously a full 1.8 percentage points of the quarterly growth rate is NOT accounted for by these three determinants. This discrepancy is very substantial and needs to be explained,” he said.

Sales growth in the manufacturing sector, as opposed to profits growth, has continued to slow down, Ramesh said.

“The Trump tariff shock is simply not reflected in the first quarter of this financial year - in fact, the front-loading of exports to the US by exporters attempting to escape tariffs has actually boosted export growth and therefore the headline GDP number,” the Congress leader said.

The real consequence of the tariffs will begin to get felt in the second quarter for sure, Ramesh said.

India's economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 7.8 per cent in April-June, its fastest pace in five quarters, before US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs that now cloud the outlook, threatening key exports like textiles.

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of the ongoing fiscal year was mainly driven by good showing by the farm sector, and also helped by services like trade, hotel, financial and real estate, according to the latest government data released on Friday. PTI ASK DV DV

Tariff shock not reflected: front loaded exports mask true impact on GDP composition and consumption, raising accountability questions. The article contends that headline first quarter GDP growth is overstated because front loading of exports to the US has temporarily boosted figures, so the tariff shock is not yet reflected; it notes weak urban and rural consumption, subdued nominal GDP growth, a substantial unexplained portion of quarterly growth not accounted for by consumption, investment and trade, and slowing manufacturing sales.