India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in April-October 2019-20* are estimated to be USD 310.23 billion, exhibiting a positive growth of 1.51 per cent over the same period last year. Overall imports in April-October 2019-20* are estimated to be USD 359.68 billion, exhibiting a negative growth of 4.61 per cent over the same period last year.

 

*Note: Services data pertains to April-September 2019-20 as September 2019 is the latest data available as per RBI’s Press Release dated 15^thNovember 2019. It is arrived at by adding quarterly data of RBI for Q1 of 2019-20 with Month-wise QE data of RBI’s press release for July, August and September 2019-20. This data is provisional and subject to revision by RBI. In addition, it may be noted that data for October 2019 is estimated and added to the April-September 2019-20 data of RBI to calculate the Overall Trade Deficit for April-October 2019-20. It will be revised based on RBI’s next press release for October 2019.

I. MERCHANDISE TRADE

EXPORTS (including re-exports)

Exports in October 2019 were USD 26.38 billion, as compared to USD 26.67 billion in October 2018, exhibiting a negative growth of 1.11 per cent. In Rupee terms, exports were ₹ 1,87,382.29 crore in October 2019, as compared to ₹ 1,96,406.43 crore in October 2018, registering a negative growth of 4.59 per cent.

In October 2019, major commodity groups of export showing positivegrowth over the corresponding month of last year are

Cumulative value of exports for the period April-October 2019-20 was USD 185.95 billion (₹ 13,04,149.06 crore) as against USD 190.15 billion (₹ 13,17,881.40 crore) during the period April-October 2018-19, registering a negative growth of 2.21 per cent in Dollar terms (negative growth of 1.04 per cent in Rupee terms).

Non-petroleum and Non Gems and Jewellery exports in October 2019 were USD 19.04 billion, as compared to USD 18.93 billion in October 2018, exhibiting a positive growth of 0.59 per cent. Non-petroleum and Non Gems and Jewellery exports in April-October 2019-20 were USD137.45 billion, as compared to USD137.93 billion for the corresponding period in 2018-19, a decrease of 0.35 per cent.

 

IMPORTS

Imports in October 2019 were USD37.39 billion (₹ 2,65,628.46 crore), which was 16.31 per cent lower in Dollar terms and 19.26 per cent lower in Rupee terms over imports of USD 44.68 billion (₹ 3,28,973.56 crore) in October 2018. Cumulative value of imports for the period April-October 2019-20 was USD 280.67 billion (₹ 19,67,625.73 crore), as against USD 306.31 billion (₹ 21,23,857.76 crore) during the period April-October 2018-19, registering a negative growth of 8.37 per cent in Dollar terms (negative growth of 7.36 per cent in Rupee terms).

Major commodity groups of import showing negative growth in October 2019 over the corresponding month of last year are:

CRUDE OIL AND NON-OIL IMPORTS:

Oil imports in October 2019 were USD 9.63 billion (₹ 68,400.14 crore), which was 31.74 percent lower in Dollar terms (34.15 percent lower in Rupee terms), compared to USD14.11 billion (₹ 1,03,864.85 crore) in October 2018. Oil imports in April-October 2019-20 were USD 73.93 billion (₹ 5,18,270.66 crore) which was 12.16 per cent lower in Dollar terms (11.31 percent lower in Rupee terms) compared to USD 84.17 billion (₹ 5,84,362.56 crore), over the same period last year.

In this connection it is mentioned that the global Brent price ($/bbl) has decreased by 26.22% in October 2019 vis-à-vis October 2018 as per data available from World Bank.

Non-oil imports in October 2019 were estimated at USD27.76billion (₹ 1,97,228.32crore) which was 9.19per cent lower in Dollar terms (12.39percent lower in Rupee terms), compared to USD30.57billion (₹ 2,25,108.71crore) in October 2018. Non-oil imports in April-October 2019-20 were USD206.74billion (₹ 14,49,355.07 crore) which was 6.93per cent lower in Dollar terms (5.86 percent lower in Rupee terms), compared to USD222.14 billion (₹ 15,39,495.20crore) in April-October 2018-19.

Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports were USD25.92billion in October 2019, recording a negative growth of 10.04 per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports of USD 28.82 billion in October 2018. Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports were USD189.10 billion in April-October 2019-20, recording a negative growth of 6.73 per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports USD 202.74 billion in April-October 2018-19.

 

II. TRADE IN SERVICES

EXPORTS (Receipts)

As per the latest press release by RBI dated 15^th November 2019, exports in September 2019 were USD 17.54 billion (₹ 1,25,090.78 crore) registering a positive growth of 7.05 per cent in dollar terms, vis-à-vis September 2018. The estimated value of services export for October 2019* is USD 17.22 billion.

IMPORTS (Payments)

As per the latest press release by RBI dated 15^th November 2019, imports in September 2019 were USD 11.10 billion (₹ 79,151.87 crore) registering a positive growth of 11.56 per cent in dollar terms, vis-à-vis September 2018. The estimated value of service Import for October 2019* is USD 10.92 billion.

III.TRADE BALANCE

MERCHANDISE: The trade deficit for October 2019 was estimated at USD 11.01 billion as against the deficit of USD 18.00 billion in October 2018.

SERVICES: As per RBI’s Press Release dated 15^th November 2019, the trade balance in Services (i.e. Net Services export) for September, 2019 is estimated at USD 6.44 billion.

OVERALL TRADE BALANCE: Taking merchandise and services together, overall trade deficit for April-October 2019-20* is estimated at USD 49.45 billion as compared to USD 71.45 billion in April-October 2018-19.

 *Note: Services data pertains to April-September 2019-20 as September 2019 is the latest data available as per RBI’s Press Release dated 15^th November 2019. It is arrived at by adding quarterly data of RBI for Q1 of 2019-20 with Month-wise QE data of RBI’s press release for July, August and September 2019-20. This data is provisional and subject to revision by RBI. In addition, it may be noted that data for October 2019 is estimated and added to the April-September 2019-20 data of RBI to calculate the Overall Trade Deficit for April-October 2019-20. It will be revised based on RBI’s next press release for October 2019.

MERCHANDISE TRADE 

EXPORTS & IMPORTS  : (US $ Billion)
(PROVISIONAL)
	OCTOBER	APRIL-OCTOBER
EXPORTS(including re-exports)
2018-19	26.67	190.15
2019-20	26.38	185.95
%Growth 2019-20/ 2018-19	-1.11	-2.21
IMPORTS
2018-19	44.68	306.31
2019-20	37.39	280.67
%Growth 2019-20/ 2018-19	-16.31	-8.37
TRADE BALANCE
2018-19	-18.00	-116.15
2019-20	-11.01	-94.72
EXPORTS &IMPORTS: (Rs. Crore)
(PROVISIONAL)
	OCTOBER	APRIL-OCTOBER
EXPORTS(including re-exports)
2018-19	1,96,406.43	13,17,881.40
2019-20	1,87,382.29	13,04,149.06
%Growth 2019-20/ 2018-19	-4.59	-1.04
IMPORTS
2018-19	3,28,973.56	21,23,857.76
2019-20	2,65,628.46	19,67,625.73
%Growth 2019-20/ 2018-19	-19.26	-7.36
TRADE BALANCE
2018-19	-1,32,567.13	-8,05,976.35
2019-20	-78,246.17	-6,63,476.67

  SERVICES TRADE 

EXPORTS & IMPORTS (SERVICES) : (US $ Billion)
(PROVISIONAL)	September 2019	April-September 2019-20
EXPORTS (Receipts)	17.54	107.06
IMPORTS (Payments)	11.10	68.10
TRADE BALANCE	6.44	38.96
EXPORTS & IMPORTS (SERVICES): (Rs. Crore)
(PROVISIONAL)	September 2019	April-September 2019-20
EXPORTS (Receipts)	1,25,090.78	7,49,213.20
IMPORTS (Payments)	79,151.87	4,76,546.62
TRADE BALANCE	45,938.90	2,72,666.58
Source: RBI Press Release dated 15thNovember 2019

 Note: Services data pertains to April-September 2019-20 as September 2019 is the latest data available as per RBI’s Press Release dated 15^thNovember 2019. It is arrived at by adding quarterly data of RBI for Q1 of 2019-20 with Month-wise QE data of RBI’s press release for July, August and September 2019. This has been used along with the estimate of service exports and imports for August 2019, as explained in page-1 for the purpose of this Press note

*Link for Quick Estimates

Trade deficit narrows as imports fall and services exports grow, based on provisional RBI-derived estimates. Overall trade shows a reduced combined trade deficit for April-October 2019-20 driven by a pronounced contraction in merchandise imports and modest export performance. Oil import reductions, linked to lower global Brent prices, and declines in non-oil and non-gold imports underlie the import fall. Services receipts grew in the latest available data, producing a positive net services surplus. Aggregate figures rely on provisional RBI estimates for services, with October values estimated and subject to revision on future RBI releases.