Geneva, Apr 14 (AP) The bling is back, but the war in the Persian Gulf has tarnished the outlook for the luxury watch industry — the ultimate in bling.

Starting Tuesday, Geneva hosts the annual “Watches and Wonders” fair, a premiere gathering in an industry eager for a rebound after two years of market contraction, hopefully including sales in oil-rich Gulf Arab countries.

The US and Israeli war against Iran that began February 28, however, has had a sweeping impact on the global economy: Driving up energy prices, stalling shipments of fertiliser, disrupting air travel, among other things. High-end watches have not been spared.

Soaring prices for precious metals like gold and silver over the last year and US President Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariffs launched a year ago — while down from peak levels — already affected the market.

Now, renewed inflation pressures and doubts about consumer confidence are throwing new uncertainty into the market that generates tens of billions of dollars in revenue each year.

Philippe Pegoraro, chief economist at FH — the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry — said official exports figures for March won't be finalised until later this month.

“At this point, we're expecting a sharp drop” in part because of logistical issues and sagging demand, Pegoraro said.

Purchases from residents in the United Arab Emirates, for example, appear to be holding up, but tourist traffic that drives sales in places like the Dubai airport has taken a hit due to Iranian strikes on the country, he said.

“Rebuilding confidence is going to take some time,” Pegoraro said.

A cloud over Watches and Wonders ========================= The show is a rarefied, elite gathering that showcases innovations, drums up deals, and hosts some 65 exhibiting brands from around the world: That's just a sliver of an industry that counts some 450 watchmakers in Switzerland alone. About 60,000 visitors are expected to attend.

Morgan Stanley, in the 9th Annual Swiss Watcher report put together with independent consultancy LuxeConsult, said in February that Swiss watch exports declined 1.7 per cent last year in value terms — a year when Switzerland's franc was relatively strong compared with the US dollar and the euro.

It was a second straight year of market contraction, the report said.

“When you look back at a year ago, the sort of theme was: The tariffs and the uncertainty," said industry analyst Ming Liu. “Unfortunately, we aren't anywhere closer to certainty, probably even less with what's happening in the Middle East." “That's obviously going to have a cloud over Watches and Wonders,” she said. ”But it has a cloud over everything, right?" Similar to the luxury goods sector as a whole, the biggest brands have been gaining market share: Four of Switzerland's 450-odd watch brands — Rolex, Cartier, Patek Philippe and Omega — make up over half the total Swiss retail market share, the report said.

And the upper-end segment has been growing: hand-crafted watches priced at more than 50,000 francs (more than USD 63,000) apiece made up 37 per cent of the total value of Swiss watch exports last year — up from 33.5 per cent in 2024, it said.

Switzerland still stands out in the luxury watch business ============================ The Morgan Stanley report said Swiss-made watches represent about 96 per cent of the global luxury watch market, or those that retail for at least 2,000 francs each (more than USD 2,200).

Japan's Grand Seiko is the “most credible non-Swiss challenger” and India's Titan is making a run at the top tier, the report said. The Swiss are coming off a turbulent year.

Trump imposed exceptionally high US tariffs on goods from Switzerland last year, hitting a peak of 39 per cent — the highest faced by any developed Western country.

A delegation of Swiss business executives travelled to the White House and offered Trump gifts, including a Rolex clock in November. The following month a deal was announced that sharply lowered US tariffs on Swiss products. (AP) PY PY