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    Fitch ups India's GDP growth estimate for FY26; projects USD 70/barrel oil in 2026
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March 13, 2026
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Monetary policy stance maintained; rates expected steady while inflation risk rises amid higher oil prices and trade shifts.
Fitch raised India's near-term GDP forecasts, attributing growth to domestic demand and investment, noted national accounts rebasing that smooths GDP estimates, and projected a short-term easing then recovery in investment linked to looser financial conditions. The report warns that higher global oil prices raise inflation risk while the Reserve Bank's neutral stance and expectation of unchanged policy rates are likely to persist. It also highlights that weaker domestic demand may boost net trade contribution and that external legal/regulatory changes, including a lower US effective tax rate and Section 122 tariffs, will affect external demand.
March 13, 2026
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Trade investigations drive continued India-US engagement on a bilateral trade pact amid parallel tariff measures and policy scrutiny.
India's commerce ministry has denied reports of a pause in bilateral talks with the United States, confirming continued engagement toward a mutually beneficial trade agreement. This diplomatic position arises as the US launches new Section 301 trade investigations into policies of several economies, including India, and implements broad tariff measures following a domestic court decision, creating the policy context for negotiations.
March 13, 2026
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Emergency fuel measures temporarily reintroduce kerosene and permit alternate fuels for hospitality to protect household cooking supplies.
India has introduced temporary emergency measures to manage an energy supply shock from disrupted Strait of Hormuz transit: additional kerosene allocations for households, temporary permission for hotels and restaurants to use biomass, RDF and coal, limited commercial LPG allocation, extended LPG refill intervals, expanded delivery authentication to curb hoarding, and a committee to assess genuine commercial demand, while sourcing cargoes from diverse suppliers and increasing domestic LPG output.
March 13, 2026
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Supplementary demands approval permits additional government expenditure while keeping the fiscal deficit within revised estimates.
Passage of the second batch of supplementary demands for grants authorises additional net cash expenditure for the current fiscal year by increasing gross authorised outlays while offsetting part of that increase through estimated additional receipts, yielding a stated net additional cash requirement. The government states the additional authorised spending will be managed within the fiscal deficit projected in the Revised Estimates and does not raise total expenditure above the original Budget Estimates.
March 13, 2026
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Economic Stabilisation Fund created to provide fiscal headroom and buffer for global shocks; supplementary spending approved.
An Economic Stabilisation Fund of one lakh crore is proposed as a contingency buffer to provide fiscal headroom and absorb unforeseen global shocks; its allocation is included in the second batch of supplementary demands for grants alongside additional spending on fertiliser subsidies, PMGKAY, defence and other heads. The Finance Minister affirmed that the fiscal deficit for 2025-26 will remain within the Revised Estimates and that the supplementary does not increase total expenditure beyond the Budget Estimates.
March 13, 2026
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Tariffs under trade statutes shift import costs to consumers, increasing household burdens and prompting broad trade investigations.
The administration is replacing invalidated emergency tariffs by pivoting to alternative statutory authorities to sustain tariff revenue, using short-duration emergency levies, broader trade-investigation powers to target unfair or excessive foreign production, and national-security based tariffs after Commerce inquiries. Procedural limits and legal challenges constrain some measures, while analysts and Democratic reports conclude tariff costs will be passed to consumers-through importer pass-through and higher domestic prices-so households will bear the economic burden.
March 13, 2026
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Energy strategy emphasizes infrastructure expansion and self reliance to mitigate war driven supply shocks and strengthen strategic reserves.
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March 13, 2026
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Illicit manufacture of psychotropic drugs exposed, large-scale seizure and arrests disrupt organised production and supply networks.
Operation White Hammer uncovered an organised clandestine industrial facility manufacturing Alprazolam, a psychotropic substance under the NDPS Act, 1985, disguised as a chemical unit. Searches recovered a large commercial quantity of finished Alprazolam, extensive precursor chemicals and industrial-scale processing equipment, evidencing systematic production and distribution capabilities and supporting investigation of offences including manufacture and possession for supply.
March 13, 2026
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Regulatory engagement with NBFCs to coordinate interagency solutions and strengthen KYC and sector reforms.
Department of Financial Services convened NBFCs with RBI, Department of Revenue and UIDAI to discuss operational issues and pursue stakeholder consultation for practical solutions. The Secretary urged NBFCs to enhance financial robustness and serve underserved customers, proposed a workshop with UIDAI and NPCI on effective KYC, and requested SROs to design a reform framework to strengthen the sector and coordinate interagency responses.
March 12, 2026
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Tourist tax imposed on hotel stays linked to GST status, applying distinct rates for domestic and foreign travellers.
The Jharkhand City Tourist Tax Rules, 2025 impose a tourist levy on travellers staying in urban hotels, calculated on the total invoice value, with differentiated rate bands tied to a hotel's GST status and separate rates for domestic and foreign tourists, establishing a GST-linked municipal tax on hotel stays within urban areas.
March 12, 2026
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Budgetary transparency concerns allege fiscal mismanagement and contested tax attribution, challenging infrastructure and employment claims.
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March 12, 2026
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Director disqualification for persistent non filing bars reappointment and requires state action and regulatory penalties.
The court ruled that non filing of financial statements and annual returns for consecutive years triggered statutory disqualification under the Companies Act and barred reappointment, and that absence of valid Director Identification Numbers constituted an independent disqualification. It quashed the prior administrative finding that excused disqualification for certain years, directed the state to facilitate appointment of directors and immediate elections, and instructed the Inspector General of Registration to take action including statutory penalties; the court held that an amnesty scheme did not remove disqualification.
March 12, 2026
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Asset attachment under PMLA triggers provisional seizure of properties linked to alleged diversion of public funds.
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March 12, 2026
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March 12, 2026
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Inflation target band preserved as CPI edges higher due to food-led pressures, keeping rate policy pause plausible.
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March 12, 2026
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NBFC registration: RBI-registered gold-loan lender reports strong AUM growth and emphasizes disciplined underwriting and technology investments.
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March 12, 2026
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Priority supply of domestic LPG sought to enforce export restrictions and secure household allocations amid supply disruption.
Six LPG distributors allege a supplier refused to reallocate LPG from export channels to the domestic market despite Ministry directions prioritising household supplies; they seek orders compelling the supplier to halt exports and increase domestic allocations, identifying the petroleum ministry as policy authority and the trade directorate as competent on export restrictions.
March 12, 2026
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FDI relaxation for land-border ownership reduces mandatory approval requirements, enabling limited bordering-country stakes to invest.
India amended its FDI rules to exempt from mandatory approval overseas firms incorporated outside land-bordering countries that have non-controlling beneficial owners from those countries below a specified threshold, while continuing mandatory approval for entities domiciled in bordering countries; sectoral caps and entry routes remain applicable and large-scale or controlling investments follow the previous approval process, with a limited fast-track approval available for certain sectors.

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Govt cuts excise duty on petrol, diesel; windfall tax on fuel export back

March 27, 2026

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New Delhi, Mar 27 (PTI) The government has slashed excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre each, a move aimed at shielding domestic consumers from a surge in global oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict, at an estimated revenue cost of Rs 1.75 lakh crore.

Alongside, the government brought back duties on export of diesel and aviation turbine fuel (ATF).

Special additional excise duty on petrol has been cut from Rs 13 a litre to Rs 3 and the same on diesel from Rs 10 per litre to nil, according to a notification issued late on Thursday.

Alongside, the government imposed an export duty of Rs 21.5 per litre on diesel and Rs 29.5 per litre on aviation turbine fuel (ATF), reinstating a levy first introduced in July 2022 to curb windfall gains by refiners following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and later withdrawn in December 2024.

However, unlike last time, there is no windfall tax that has been levied on domestic crude oil producers like ONGC.

After the reduction in excise duty, the incidence of excise duty on petrol will be Rs 11.9 per litre (Rs 1.40 basic excise duty, Rs 3 special additional excise duty, Rs 2.50 agriculture infrastructure and development cess and Rs 5 road and infrastructure cess).

On diesel the incidence will be Rs 7.80 per litre (Rs 1.80 basis excise duty, Rs 4 agriculture infrastructure and development cess and Rs 2 road and infrastructure cess).

Considering 175 billion litre of auto fuel sales annually (115 billion litres of diesel and 60 billion litres of petrol), the impact of the duty cut would be Rs 1.75 lakh crore annually.

The excise duty cut follows record losses that oil companies suffered from the surge in international oil prices. Prices of crude oil, the raw material for making petrol and diesel, have surged almost 50 per cent this month as the US and Israel attack on Iran and Tehran's sweeping retaliation disrupts global supply.

Despite oil prices rising above USD 100 per barrel, retail pump rates had remained on freeze. This had led to oil companies incurring record losses which had even started impacting their working capital.

To ease the pain, the government cut excise duty. The reduction will be adjusted against the Rs 24 a litre required increase in petrol and Rs 30 per litre hike in diesel rates warranted due to the rise in international oil prices.

Rating agency ICRA, in a note on Thursday, had said if the average crude oil price goes up to USD 100-105 per barrel, fuel retailers would incur a loss of Rs 11 per litre on petrol and Rs 14 per litre on diesel, respectively.

International oil prices touched USD 119 per barrel earlier this month on the intensifying Iran war, before pulling back to around USD 100 a barrel.

The first signs of stress came when Nayara Energy, the country's largest private fuel retailer, raised petrol price by Rs 5 per litre and diesel by Rs 3 a litre on Thursday. Petrol at Nayara pumps now costs Rs 100.71 a litre and diesel costs Rs 91.31 per litre.

State-owned fuel retailers, who control about 90 per cent of the market, continue to keep rates frozen. A litre of normal petrol in Delhi continues to cost Rs 94.77 at their outlets, while the same grade diesel comes for Rs 87.67 a litre.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in a post on X said the reduction in excise duty "will provide protection to consumers from rise in prices".

The government, she said, has always ensured that citizens are protected from vagaries of supply and costs of essential goods.

"Further, duties have been imposed on exports of diesel at Rs 21.5 per litre and on ATF at Rs 29.5 per litre. This will ensure adequate availability of these products for domestic consumption," she added.

Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said international crude prices have gone through the roof in the last one month from around USD 70 dollars per barrel to around USD 122.

"Consequently, petrol and diesel prices for consumers have gone up all over the world. Prices have increased by around 30-50 per cent in Southeast Asian countries, 30 per cent in North American countries, 20 per cent in Europe and 50 per cent in African countries," he said, adding that the government had two choices -- either increase prices drastically or bear the brunt on its finances.

In keeping with the commitment of the last four years since the conflict in Russia-Ukraine started, the government decided to take a hit on its own finances again to safeguard the Indian citizens.

"The government has taken a huge hit on its taxation revenues to ensure very high losses of oil companies (approximately Rs 24 per litre for petrol and Rs 30 a litre for diesel) at this time of sky high international prices are reduced," he said.

"At the same time, export tax has been levied as international prices of petrol and diesel have skyrocketed and any refinery exporting to foreign nations will have to pay export tax." Puri said the global situation remains in flux, and the government is closely monitoring developments across energy, supply chains, and essential commodities on a real-time basis.

"All necessary steps are being taken to ensure uninterrupted availability of fuel, energy, and other critical supplies for our citizens. We are fully prepared to handle emerging challenges," he said.

India, he said, has consistently demonstrated resilience in the face of global uncertainties, and we will continue to act in a timely, proactive, and coordinated manner.

"Rumours of a lockdown in India are completely false. Let me state this clearly, there is no such proposal under consideration by the Government of India," he said. "In such times, it is important that we remain calm, responsible, and united. Attempts to spread rumours and create panic in such a situation are irresponsible and harmful." PTI JD ANZ TRB

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