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March 2, 2026
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Rupee depreciation driven by crude price surge, dollar strength and foreign fund outflows pressures local currency lower.
Rupee depreciation in early trade reflected external pressures-higher crude prices, a stronger US dollar, and escalated Middle East tensions-compounded by negative domestic equity sentiment and significant foreign institutional outflows. Market indicators included a firmer dollar index, rising Brent crude futures, and a recent dip in forex reserves, while analysts warned of increased import bill risk due to India's reliance on fuel imports.
March 2, 2026
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Energy supply disruption threatens global oil flows, driving sharp price increases and straining fuel and goods markets worldwide.
Attacks and retaliatory strikes in the Middle East disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz and regional export infrastructure, triggering sharp crude price rises and heightened risk of sustained supply constraints; OPEC+ announced production increases, but analysts stress that constrained export routes limit the immediate effectiveness of added output.
March 2, 2026
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Maritime chokepoint security threatened, risking oil export disruptions and limiting the relief from increased production.
Attacks and military strikes in the Middle East disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, risking restrictions on regional crude exports and driving upward pressure on oil and gasoline prices. Because the strait is a critical global oil chokepoint, market concerns focus on whether barrels can physically move; consequently, OPEC+ announcements of increased production may provide limited immediate relief if export routes remain constrained.
March 2, 2026
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Oil supply security: production increases meet limited relief when export routes through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted.
OPEC+ announced an April increase in crude production intended to augment available supply while regional military attacks and disruptions to tanker movements - particularly through the Strait of Hormuz - threaten export routes. The notice underscores that interruptions to transit can limit the relief additional output provides and that access to export channels will be decisive for near-term market stability and price direction.
March 1, 2026
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Energy security measures cushion supply shocks but elevate price volatility and macroeconomic pressures for oil importers.
Escalating tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz create near-term energy security risks for India manifested chiefly as price volatility and macroeconomic pressure rather than immediate physical shortages. Layered inventory buffers - commercial stocks, in transit cargoes and Strategic Petroleum Reserves - combined with diversified sourcing options (including Atlantic suppliers and Russian optionality) reduce the likelihood of sustained supply disruption, though longer transit times and LNG contractual rigidity limit rapid substitution and increase vulnerability to prolonged closures.
March 1, 2026
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GST revenue growth signals strengthened tax receipts driven by import collections and improved domestic sales affecting fiscal enforcement.
A court ordered continued judicial custody for eight alleged Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives accused of illegal entry and procuring forged identity documents while another court directed the immediate release of 14 student protesters arrested after a campus demonstration. Separately, gross Goods and Services Tax collections rose year-on-year, led by higher import receipts and improved domestic sales, reflecting stronger enforcement and compliance dynamics within the indirect tax regime.
March 1, 2026
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SGST growth reflects strengthened tax administration and compliance following GST rate rationalisation, bolstering state revenues.
Haryana reports marked year on year expansion in State Goods and Services Tax (SGST) receipts for 2025-26, attributing the improvement to strengthened tax administration, enhanced compliance stemming from departmental reforms and better tax analysis, facilitation via district GST Suvidha Kendras, and the GST Council's September 2025 rate rationalisation as complementary drivers of revenue growth.
March 1, 2026
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GST revenue growth maintained despite rate reductions; enhanced compliance and AI-driven analytics strengthened state collections effectively.
Andhra Pradesh achieves record net Goods and Services Tax receipts for February, with SGST and IGST growth offsetting marginal gross GST decline. Revenue momentum is supported by higher professional tax and petroleum VAT receipts. The state credits strengthened compliance-targeted audits, stricter return filing, coordinated IGST settlements, and performance based officer deployment-and advanced data analytics and AI oversight that detect evasion and reverse ineligible input tax credit claims for measurable recoveries.
March 1, 2026
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Shipping risk allocation: exporters urged to avoid CIF and prefer FOB as geopolitical risks raise freight and insurance exposure.
Advises exporters to avoid new Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) commitments to Iran and Gulf destinations and to conclude sales on Free-On-Board (FOB) terms where feasible so freight, insurance and related risks rest with the buyer. Notes that West Asia instability may sharply increase bunker prices, disrupt vessel availability, raise freight and insurance premiums, and produce price volatility; urges restraint, avoidance of open-ended unhedged positions, and monitoring of consignments in transit or awaiting clearance.
March 1, 2026
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GST rate restructuring boosts revenues as import and domestic consumption support post cut recovery in collections.
GST collections rose year on year following a statutory GST rate restructuring that reduced rates on numerous items and consolidated slabs; import revenue and domestic consumption supported recovery after an initial post cut dip. The pattern includes higher refunds, lower cess receipts, and divergent state level growth, raising considerations for revenue forecasting, state fiscal impacts, and the operational stability of the restructured indirect tax framework.
March 1, 2026
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Export disruptions to Iran risk shipment halts and payment delays for rice exporters amid regional conflict.
Shipments to Iran and consignments to Afghanistan via Bandar Abbas have been held up following military strikes, causing immediate shipment disruptions and likely payment delays until the security situation improves; exporters warn the impact depends on conflict duration and note heightened commercial risk from lack of war-risk insurance for vessels.
March 1, 2026
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Goods and Services Tax collections rose driven by import revenue growth, with higher refunds and lower cess receipts.
Gross collections under the Goods and Services Tax increased year on year, driven mainly by a stronger rise in import related GST receipts; domestic GST rose more modestly. Total refunds increased, and net GST receipts were higher year on year, while cess receipts declined markedly compared with the prior year period.
March 1, 2026
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Energy supply resilience mitigates immediate oil disruption risk, though prolonged Hormuz closure heightens price and supply concerns.
India's layered inventory buffers - commercial stocks, in-transit crude and strategic petroleum reserves - and full refinery tanks reduce the likelihood of immediate physical disruption from a short-term Strait of Hormuz closure, shifting the principal near-term impact to price, freight and insurance volatility; prolonged closure would more severely affect LNG and LPG due to contract rigidity and transit dependence, prompting reliance on diversified sourcing, Russian optionality, longer transit planning and strategic reserve drawdowns.
March 1, 2026
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Bail parity: Former CMO official released after court found investigation substantially complete and parity with other accused.
The court evaluated bail petitions in parallel Economic Offences Wing and Enforcement Directorate inquiries alleging a syndicate diverted liquor to government shops and laundered proceeds; it found the investigation substantially complete, trial unlikely to conclude soon, and that continued detention would not serve justice. Prosecution relied on asserted digital communications and co-accused statements alleging supervisory role and receipt/handling of proceeds; defence disputed incriminating material, reliance on statements, selective arrests and urged parity and repeated prior incarcerations. The court held evidentiary weight requires trial testing and noted parity with other released accused.
February 28, 2026
Show AI Summary
Bail parity principle applied where investigational delay and statement based evidence affect custodial necessity in money laundering cases.
High Court review of bail in concurrent EOW criminal and ED money laundering investigations centred on investigational stage, evidentiary weight of digital material and co accused statements, and parity with released principal accused. The court noted protracted investigation timelines, contested allegations about supervisory involvement and receipt of alleged proceeds, and held that inferential and statement based evidence must be evaluated at trial, making the stage of probe and likelihood of prolonged proceedings relevant to custodial decisions.
February 28, 2026
Show AI Summary
AI policy implementation: ensure agricultural AI delivers to farmers via infrastructure, governance and data protection.
Maharashtra's agricultural AI policy promises institutional development, digital public infrastructure, financial support and capacity building, but implementation is lagging: allocated funds remain unspent, innovation centres and leadership appointments are pending, and summit activities have not translated into grassroots adoption. Addressing the rural digital divide, establishing data protection safeguards, auditing the crop insurance scheme, stabilising price support and export policy, and creating a concrete roadmap with oversight are identified as necessary to ensure AI tools benefit ordinary farmers.
February 28, 2026
Show AI Summary
Oil supply disruption could trigger sharp global price swings as Middle East strikes raise market uncertainty and transit risks.
Oil supply uncertainty from recent strikes threatens significant market volatility: a contained campaign may cause a short-lived price spike if shipping and infrastructure remain intact, while broader disruption of pipelines, terminals or tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would force buyers-particularly China-to seek alternative supplies, amplifying sustained upward pressure on global oil prices.
February 28, 2026
Show AI Summary
Supply chain disruption threatens longer routes and higher shipping and insurance costs for exporters in western markets.
Exporters expect logistical and insurance-cost disruptions from Middle East hostilities: altered air routes and uncertainty through the Red Sea and Gulf straits may force rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding substantial transit time. Heightened geopolitical risk is likely to raise marine insurance premiums and container freight rates, increasing shipping costs; prolonged instability could also push up global energy-related input costs and exert currency pressure, prompting exporters to seek calibrated government support to sustain competitiveness.
February 28, 2026
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Investment fraud: man arrested for allegedly inducing funds via a false export venture and issuing dishonoured cheques.
The accused is alleged to have induced investment by falsely portraying a large meat export venture, obtained funds through bank transfers and arranged foreign payments via associates, and issued cheques despite insufficient funds; he absconded after committing the offence, was later arrested, and investigations aim to trace co accused and recover the cheated amount.
February 28, 2026
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Organic export compliance reinforced to boost traceability and market access following Sikkim supply chain and export readiness roadmap.
APEDA organised an Organic Conclave in Sikkim and released a Knowledge Report proposing a roadmap of infrastructure upgrades, streamlined processes, aggregation, price discovery and strategic positioning to improve export competitiveness while ensuring sustainability and traceability. The event included international buyer engagement and a technical session on the 8th Edition of the NPOP to raise compliance awareness among exporters, FPOs and certification bodies, and featured field visits to certified production clusters to strengthen farm to market linkages and buyer confidence in export readiness.

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Customs & Trade

EXPLAINER: Why kerosene and coal are making a temporary comeback in India

March 13, 2026

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New Delhi, Mar 13 (PTI) India has temporarily reintroduced kerosene for household use and permitted the use of coal and other alternate fuels for hotels and restaurants as the escalating West Asia crisis disrupts the country's energy supply chains.

The move comes after the conflict effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of India's crude oil, LPG and LNG imports normally pass.

Why is India facing fuel supply pressure? -------------------------------------------- The Strait of Hormuz - a narrow passage of water between Iran and Oman - is one of the world's most critical energy transit routes. The 21-mile-wide choke point, where shipping lanes for incoming and outgoing traffic are restricted to just 2 miles wide each, separated by a 2-mile buffer zone, is the only sea exit for oil- and gas- producing countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The narrow, 50-mile-long passage that connects the Gulf with the Arabian Sea carries about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

India imports roughly 88 per cent of its crude oil, 50 per cent of its LNG needs and 60 per cent of its LPG requirement, most of which transits through the strait.

The widening conflict in West Asia, which began on February 28 when the United States and Israel carried out strikes on Iran, followed by retaliatory attacks from Tehran, has stopped energy flows through the strait.

For India, the route is particularly important: ------------------------------------------------ * More than half of India's crude oil imports pass through the strait.

* About 55 per cent of LPG supplies used for cooking arrive through the route.

* Nearly 30 per cent of LNG imports also move through the corridor.

India consumed 31.3 million tonnes of LPG in 2024-25, of which only 12.8 million tonnes were produced domestically, with the remainder imported. 85-90 per cent of imports came from countries, like Saudi Arabia, that rely on the strait for transit.

While there is enough crude oil available from alternative sources, such as Russia, replacing any loss of LPG supplies is more time-consuming, as other alternative sources are largely located in the United States and Canada.

The disruption has forced oil companies to prioritise household cooking gas supplies, leading to restrictions on commercial users, such as hotels and restaurants.

Measures taken by the government --------------------------------------- To manage the supply disruption, the government has introduced a series of temporary measures: * Additional kerosene allocation: States have been given 48,000 kilolitres of additional kerosene, over and above the regular monthly quota of about 1 lakh kilolitres, for household cooking needs.

* Alternate fuels for hospitality sector: Environmental regulators have been asked to permit biomass, refuse-derived fuel (RDF) pellets and coal as alternate fuels for hotels and restaurants for one month.

* Limited commercial LPG supply: Oil marketing companies will allocate 20 per cent of the average monthly commercial LPG demand to ensure essential businesses continue to receive supplies.

* Demand management: The minimum refill interval for LPG cylinders has been increased to 25 days in urban areas and 45 days in rural areas.

Why is kerosene being used again? ------------------------------------- The increase in kerosene allocation is notable because India has spent the past decade attempting to phase out the fuel due to pollution concerns and its misuse for adulterating petrol.

Delhi was officially declared the first kerosene-free city in India on June 17, 2014. The initiative, launched in 2012, replaced kerosene usage with LPG connections for households, aiming to reduce pollution and fire risks.

Mass roll-out of LPG through grant of free connections to the poor under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana was intended to cut the usage of firewood and coal for cooking, especially in rural households.

However, with LPG supplies under pressure, officials said kerosene is being temporarily reintroduced to ensure households continue to have access to cooking fuel.

Is there a fuel shortage? -------------------------- The government says the country is not facing a shortage of petrol or diesel despite the global disruption.

* Refineries are operating at high capacity utilisation, in some cases exceeding 100 per cent.

* No petrol pump or LPG distributor has run dry.

* Crude oil supplies have been secured from multiple sources. India has diversified its crude sources to around 40 countries from 27 previously.

Why are LPG supplies under pressure? ---------------------------------------- Before the crisis, about 60 per cent of LPG imports came from Gulf countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait. Those supplies are blocked.

The government says LPG cargoes are now being sourced from the United States, Norway, Canada, Algeria and Russia, in addition to available Gulf supplies.

Domestic LPG production has also been increased by 28 per cent by redirecting refinery output.

How the government is preventing hoarding ----------------------------------------------- Officials say a surge in LPG bookings has largely been driven by panic buying rather than actual supply shortages.

To curb hoarding and diversion, delivery authentication codes will be expanded to 90 per cent of consumers, requiring confirmation before cylinders are marked delivered.

A three-member committee will assess genuine commercial demand across sectors and regions.

Commercial LPG sales are being regulated temporarily to prevent black-market diversion.

What Next? ------------ Officials say the measures are temporary responses to an extraordinary global energy disruption.

The government is monitoring supply flows and alternative import routes while prioritising household cooking fuel and essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions.

The Strait of Hormuz has remained disrupted for nearly two weeks, making the current situation one of the most severe energy supply shocks in recent decades. PTI ANZ BAL BAL

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