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February 28, 2026
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Oil supply disruption could trigger sharp global price swings as Middle East strikes raise market uncertainty and transit risks.
Oil supply uncertainty from recent strikes threatens significant market volatility: a contained campaign may cause a short-lived price spike if shipping and infrastructure remain intact, while broader disruption of pipelines, terminals or tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would force buyers-particularly China-to seek alternative supplies, amplifying sustained upward pressure on global oil prices.
February 28, 2026
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Supply chain disruption threatens longer routes and higher shipping and insurance costs for exporters in western markets.
Exporters expect logistical and insurance-cost disruptions from Middle East hostilities: altered air routes and uncertainty through the Red Sea and Gulf straits may force rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding substantial transit time. Heightened geopolitical risk is likely to raise marine insurance premiums and container freight rates, increasing shipping costs; prolonged instability could also push up global energy-related input costs and exert currency pressure, prompting exporters to seek calibrated government support to sustain competitiveness.
February 28, 2026
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Investment fraud: man arrested for allegedly inducing funds via a false export venture and issuing dishonoured cheques.
The accused is alleged to have induced investment by falsely portraying a large meat export venture, obtained funds through bank transfers and arranged foreign payments via associates, and issued cheques despite insufficient funds; he absconded after committing the offence, was later arrested, and investigations aim to trace co accused and recover the cheated amount.
February 28, 2026
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Organic export compliance reinforced to boost traceability and market access following Sikkim supply chain and export readiness roadmap.
APEDA organised an Organic Conclave in Sikkim and released a Knowledge Report proposing a roadmap of infrastructure upgrades, streamlined processes, aggregation, price discovery and strategic positioning to improve export competitiveness while ensuring sustainability and traceability. The event included international buyer engagement and a technical session on the 8th Edition of the NPOP to raise compliance awareness among exporters, FPOs and certification bodies, and featured field visits to certified production clusters to strengthen farm to market linkages and buyer confidence in export readiness.
February 28, 2026
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Critical mineral security: Andhra Pradesh opens coastline to build a domestic rare earth and titanium value chain.
Andhra Pradesh seeks to open its coastline to large-scale beach sand mining to build an integrated domestic value chain for titanium minerals and rare earths. APMDC has identified and secured approvals for multiple ilmenite, rutile, zircon and monazite deposits and plans extraction, separation, refining and downstream manufacturing near ports and industrial corridors to reduce import dependence and supply-chain vulnerability.
February 28, 2026
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Government bank oversight reforms: standardized manual and real time dashboard to strengthen compliance and accountability.
Launch of a regulatory framework comprising the Government Bank Manual and Government Bank Dashboard to standardize bank handling of government transactions. The Manual prescribes operational procedures, reporting obligations, reconciliation timelines, and compliance requirements to reduce risk and strengthen accountability. The Dashboard provides real time monitoring of remittance timelines, scroll compliance, reconciliation status, transaction success rates, and service level adherence, enabling proactive oversight and performance management while supporting further digital integration and cybersecurity enhancements.
February 28, 2026
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Wrongful availment of input tax credit exposed; GST practitioner arrested and probe launched under CGST provisions.
A tax enforcement operation exposed an organised network issuing fake invoices and e way bills to wrongfully avail input tax credit through numerous GST registrations and shell entities. A registered GST practitioner was identified as the coordinator, arrested under provisions of the CGST Act, and remanded; investigators are tracing beneficiaries and quantifying the fraudulent input tax credit claims.
February 27, 2026
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Model mediation procedures enable mutually agreed mediation with a mediator and a time bound effort to reach a solution.
An annexure on model mediation procedures permits a Party to request mediation against a measure alleged to adversely affect trade, requires sufficiently detailed requests identifying the measure and effects, and makes mediation subject to mutual agreement. The annexure governs mediator selection, locations and modalities, provides that failure to agree on a mediator within the specified time results in rejection of the request, encourages a time bound endeavour to reach a mutually agreed solution after mediator appointment, and allows consideration of interim solutions.
February 27, 2026
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Tax revenue review urges accelerated compliance measures and AI-driven enforcement to strengthen state tax collection.
The Chief Minister reviewed tax and non-tax receipts, identified a shortfall versus annual tax targets, and directed departments to accelerate collection through transparency, efficiency and innovation. The meeting highlighted strengthened compliance measures-GST 2.0, AI-based risk analysis, extensive taxpayer scrutiny, e-invoicing and e-way bill monitoring-resulting in targeted investigations, control of fake input tax credit claims, and recovery actions; the Chief Minister also ordered enhanced excise vigilance during festivals.
February 27, 2026
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Political accountability: Opposition criticised for AI Summit protest, while government affirms focus on national development and institutional strengthening.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi criticised the opposition for a shirtless protest at an AI summit as evidence of its decline, emphasising that the government will continue its development agenda. He argued that an opposition's democratic role is to offer alternatives rather than reflexive opposition, cited millennials and Gen Z voter shifts as eroding the opposition's support, and linked recent trade deals to strengthened national institutions and reclaimed capability.
February 27, 2026
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Border management measures: intensified vigilance and financial scrutiny to prevent illegal migration and secure identity records.
Directives mandate intensified vigilance, inter-agency coordination and stricter financial scrutiny in India-Nepal border districts to counter illegal migration. Authorities will verify reported migrants and death cases, update or delete identity records upon confirmation, and conduct door-to-door verification while safeguarding genuine voters. A zero-tolerance stance on illegal construction and encroachments is paired with verification of business financing. District magistrates must ensure bank compliance with RBI reporting and PAN linkage, and sub-registrar offices face accountability for defective reporting of high-value property transactions.
February 27, 2026
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GST reform underscores tax policy's role in inclusive sustainable development and strengthening cooperative federalism and accountability.
Tax policy is described as the foundation for mobilising resources and promoting inclusive, sustainable development through an equitable tax framework. Goods and Services Tax is identified as a historic unifying reform that simplifies the indirect tax regime, strengthens cooperative federal relations, and aligns taxation with trust, accountability and welfare oriented objectives to promote production and shared prosperity.
February 27, 2026
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Creditor-driven decision-making upheld: courts must limit review to statutory confines to preserve insolvency speed and finality.
The IBC privileges creditor-driven decision-making, speed and certainty by confining judicial review to narrow statutory compliance, thereby protecting commercial choices of the Committee of Creditors as matters of commercial wisdom. Expansive judicial scrutiny is value-destructive-lengthening timelines, raising transaction costs, encouraging strategic litigation and undermining predictability and finality-so respect for statutory limits preserves timely reorganisation of viable firms and swift exit of non-viable businesses.
February 27, 2026
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Rupee depreciation driven by foreign outflows and rising oil prices puts pressure on currency and equity markets.
Rupee declined against the US dollar due to large foreign fund outflows, higher global crude oil prices and weakening domestic equity markets; foreign institutional investors sold heavily and forex reserves fell in the reporting week, even as a GDP calculation revision raised the growth estimate, highlighting resilience amid external pressures.
February 27, 2026
Show AI Summary
Fugitive economic offender arrested abroad; extradition sought under Fugitive Economic Offenders Act and PMLA measures.
A fugitive alleged to have run an extensive investment fraud was arrested in Dubai after an Interpol Red Notice; the Enforcement Directorate submitted an extradition request and dossier through the Ministry of External Affairs citing a prior declaration under the Fugitive Economic Offenders Act and ongoing PMLA investigations. ED actions include filing two chargesheets, arresting associates, attaching assets, and securing court-ordered confiscation, while coordinating with UAE authorities to effect provisional arrest and repatriation for prosecution.
February 27, 2026
Show AI Summary
Base year revision updates GDP measurement using new data and methods to better capture household and digital economy activity.
The government implemented a revised national accounts series with a new base year revision to update GDP measurement using contemporary data sources and methods. The revision addresses pandemic and tax system disruptions, will be extended into back series under the new methodology, and incorporates administrative and survey data to improve household sector measurement, private corporate allocation and new economy sectors, plus methodological shifts such as segregation of multi activity corporations and adoption of double deflation where appropriate.
February 27, 2026
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Prima-facie evidence assessment dictates whether complex corruption prosecutions can be sustained on available investigative material.
Prima-facie assessment of available evidence was central to the judge's review of the excise-policy prosecution: the court found the prosecution's material lacked concrete proof and relied on conjecture, and accordingly declined to sustain charges against the accused. The judge's prior decisions emphasize insistence on statutory preconditions for money laundering allegations and close scrutiny of magistrate and summons orders.
February 27, 2026
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Priority sector credit projections guide bank annual plans, prioritising agriculture, MSME lending and rural infrastructure financing.
Projection of priority sector credit potential quantifies exploitable lending needs across agriculture, MSME and other priority segments for the State, with agriculture accounting for the largest share and MSME receiving substantial allocation. Component estimates include crop and term loans, ancillary activities, housing, education, export credit, social infrastructure, renewable energy and agri infrastructure. The assessment is a consultative planning tool to guide banks' Annual Credit Plans and district credit strategies, signalling increased credit absorption capacity and alignment with sectoral priorities and infrastructure requirements to support rural resilience and enterprise development.
February 27, 2026
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Foreign influence allegations challenge political credibility as historic funding and security ties are used to rebut trade criticism.
Allegations claim the Congress accepted funds from the CIA and KGB during Indira Gandhi's tenure, producing policy effects such as an exchange-rate adjustment favoring Soviet imports and the decision not to pursue a proposed covert operation against a foreign nuclear facility; these claims are presented to rebut current criticisms of an interim bilateral trade framework by portraying past governance as compromised by foreign influence.
February 27, 2026
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GDP growth projection revised upward; nominal growth strong and economy expected to expand markedly next fiscal year.
GDP growth for the next fiscal year has been revised upward and nominal GDP outlook strengthened, with officials forecasting the economy will cross the four trillion dollar threshold. The upward revision follows a national accounts base-year update to 2022-23 that integrates new data sources and methodological changes to reflect structural shifts, and it alters nominal GDP levels with consequential effects on fiscal-deficit ratios while leaving key fiscal indicators like primary and revenue deficits and capital expenditure ratios broadly unchanged.

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Customs & Trade

US starts Section 301 probe against India, 15 other economies: An explainer

March 12, 2026

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New Delhi, Mar 12 (PTI) The US Trade Representative (USTR) on March 11 said it has launched a fresh round of Section 301 trade investigations targeting policies and industrial practices of 16 economies, including India and China.

Following a decision of the US Supreme Court striking down sweeping tariffs of the Trump administration, US President Donald Trump has announced 10 per cent tariffs on all countries for 150 days from February 24.

Now, initiation of this probe marks a significant escalation in trade scrutiny. Here are a few questions and answers to understand the issue.

WHAT IS THIS INVESTIGATION? ----------------------------------- The United States Trade Representative (USTR) has announced that it has initiated investigations against its trading partners, including India, China, Japan, and the European Union (EU), to look into and address unfair foreign practices that are adversely affecting American manufacturing.

The probe targets policies and industrial practices of 16 economies.

The probe covers sectors, including steel, aluminum, automobiles, batteries, electronics, chemicals, machinery, semiconductors, and solar modules.

WHICH 16 ECONOMIES ARE COVERED UNDER THE PROBE? --------------------------------------------------------------- There are 15 countries and the 27-nation EU bloc. The nations are China, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan, and India.

WHY THIS PROBE? -------------------- After the US Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. On February 20, Trump signed a proclamation to impose a temporary import duty of 10 per cent on all countries to replace the tariffs invalidated by the Court. After that, the President had stated that the US has other alternatives to impose such levies.

On February 20, a White House Fact Sheet stated that the President has directed the Office of the USR to use its Section 301 authority to investigate certain unreasonable and discriminatory acts, policies, and practices that burden or restrict US commerce.

WHAT IS THE INVESTIGATION PROCESS? --------------------------------------------- Under Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974, the US government may investigate whether foreign trade practices are unreasonable or discriminatory and harm American commerce.

The investigations will determine whether those acts, policies, and practices are unreasonable or discriminatory and burden or restrict US commerce.

"The probe will examine whether policies such as industrial subsidies, state-supported manufacturing expansion, activities of state-owned enterprises, market-access barriers, currency practices or suppressed domestic demand have contributed to global manufacturing overcapacity that burdens US commerce, think tank GTRI said.

If such practices are confirmed, Washington may impose retaliatory trade measures, including additional tariffs, quantitative restrictions or other trade barriers.

According to the GTRI, as per a defined process, public dockets for written submissions will open on March 17, allowing companies, trade groups and governments to submit their comments on the probe.

Written submissions and requests to participate in hearings must be filed by April 15. Public hearings will take place from May 5-8 at the US International Trade Commission in Washington. Rebuttal submissions must be filed within seven days after the hearings conclude. After consultations with the governments concerned, the USTR will determine whether the practices under investigation warrant retaliatory action.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR INDIA? ---------------------------------------- The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) stated that the US investigation identifies several sectors in India where structural excess capacity or export surpluses may exist. These include solar modules, petrochemicals, steel, textiles, health-related goods, construction materials and automotive products.

According to the US notice, India's solar-module manufacturing capacity is already nearly three times domestic demand, suggesting the possibility of export-driven production surpluses. Similar concerns are raised about expanding capacity in petrochemicals and steel, GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said.

Apex exporters' body FIEO said the investigation seems largely aimed at addressing global concerns around structural overcapacity in manufacturing.

"India's export growth is largely demand-driven and diversified, so we do not see any immediate concern, though the situation will need to be watched," FIEO Director General Ajay Sahai said.

WHICH ALL LAWS IS THE US USING TO IMPOSE TARIFFS? ---------------------------------------------------------------- International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) 1977: Trump in February 2025 invoked this to impose tariffs. The court on February 20 this year ruled that Trump can not use this to impose tariffs.

Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974: On February 20, 2026, Trump invoked this to impose 10 per cent tariffs on all countries for 150 days. The US President can increase the tariffs to 15 per cent.

Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962: Trump has imposed sector-specific tariffs (certain steel and aluminium products and auto components) under this. It allows trade restrictions on national-security grounds.

The US can potentially use it to include additional sectors, GTRI said.

Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974: It is designed to address unfair foreign practices affecting US commerce. It can be used to respond to unjustifiable, unreasonable, or discriminatory foreign government practices that burden or restrict US commerce.

"Section 301 remains an important US trade tool, it is slower and more legally constrained than the reciprocal tariff system invalidated by the Supreme Court. Section 301 investigations require evidence of harm and must be tied to specific trade practices," GTRI said.

Section 302(b) of the Trade Act of 1974: Under this, the USTR can self-initiate an investigation under Section 301. PTI RR TRB

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