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    Fugitive economic offender from UP arrested in Dubai; ED moves for extradition
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    Judge who discharged Arvind Kejriwal in excise-policy case dealt with several key matters in past
    NABARD projects priority sector credit potential of Rs 4.99 lakh cr for K'taka in FY 2026-27
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February 27, 2026
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Fugitive economic offender arrested abroad; extradition sought under Fugitive Economic Offenders Act and PMLA measures.
A fugitive alleged to have run an extensive investment fraud was arrested in Dubai after an Interpol Red Notice; the Enforcement Directorate submitted an extradition request and dossier through the Ministry of External Affairs citing a prior declaration under the Fugitive Economic Offenders Act and ongoing PMLA investigations. ED actions include filing two chargesheets, arresting associates, attaching assets, and securing court-ordered confiscation, while coordinating with UAE authorities to effect provisional arrest and repatriation for prosecution.
February 27, 2026
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Base year revision updates GDP measurement using new data and methods to better capture household and digital economy activity.
The government implemented a revised national accounts series with a new base year revision to update GDP measurement using contemporary data sources and methods. The revision addresses pandemic and tax system disruptions, will be extended into back series under the new methodology, and incorporates administrative and survey data to improve household sector measurement, private corporate allocation and new economy sectors, plus methodological shifts such as segregation of multi activity corporations and adoption of double deflation where appropriate.
February 27, 2026
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Prima-facie evidence assessment dictates whether complex corruption prosecutions can be sustained on available investigative material.
Prima-facie assessment of available evidence was central to the judge's review of the excise-policy prosecution: the court found the prosecution's material lacked concrete proof and relied on conjecture, and accordingly declined to sustain charges against the accused. The judge's prior decisions emphasize insistence on statutory preconditions for money laundering allegations and close scrutiny of magistrate and summons orders.
February 27, 2026
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Priority sector credit projections guide bank annual plans, prioritising agriculture, MSME lending and rural infrastructure financing.
Projection of priority sector credit potential quantifies exploitable lending needs across agriculture, MSME and other priority segments for the State, with agriculture accounting for the largest share and MSME receiving substantial allocation. Component estimates include crop and term loans, ancillary activities, housing, education, export credit, social infrastructure, renewable energy and agri infrastructure. The assessment is a consultative planning tool to guide banks' Annual Credit Plans and district credit strategies, signalling increased credit absorption capacity and alignment with sectoral priorities and infrastructure requirements to support rural resilience and enterprise development.
February 27, 2026
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Foreign influence allegations challenge political credibility as historic funding and security ties are used to rebut trade criticism.
Allegations claim the Congress accepted funds from the CIA and KGB during Indira Gandhi's tenure, producing policy effects such as an exchange-rate adjustment favoring Soviet imports and the decision not to pursue a proposed covert operation against a foreign nuclear facility; these claims are presented to rebut current criticisms of an interim bilateral trade framework by portraying past governance as compromised by foreign influence.
February 27, 2026
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GDP growth projection revised upward; nominal growth strong and economy expected to expand markedly next fiscal year.
GDP growth for the next fiscal year has been revised upward and nominal GDP outlook strengthened, with officials forecasting the economy will cross the four trillion dollar threshold. The upward revision follows a national accounts base-year update to 2022-23 that integrates new data sources and methodological changes to reflect structural shifts, and it alters nominal GDP levels with consequential effects on fiscal-deficit ratios while leaving key fiscal indicators like primary and revenue deficits and capital expenditure ratios broadly unchanged.
February 27, 2026
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GDP calculation revamp raises official growth estimate and restructures sectoral measurement, affecting fiscal and policy benchmarks.
A methodological overhaul adopting a 2022-23 base year revises GDP computation by introducing double deflation for manufacturing and agriculture, replacing single deflation, and shifting household estimation to regular surveys. The new series integrates administrative sources (GST, PFMS, vehicle data) to better capture informal and fast growing sectors, producing upward revisions to headline real and nominal growth rates, altering sectoral contributions-notably manufacturing and services-and changing fiscal deficit and policy benchmarks that require recalibration of prior forecasts.
February 27, 2026
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Money laundering probe under PMLA progresses as ED seeks statements and attaches assets amid linked bank fraud allegations.
PMLA investigation alleges bank loan fraud by group companies; the ED sought to record the principal individual's statement in a Yes Bank-linked money laundering case but he did not appear and his spouse sought adjournment. The ED has previously questioned the individual, conducted extended interrogation, attached a Mumbai residence under anti-money laundering law, filed multiple money laundering cases against group entities, and formed a Special Investigation Team to probe related instances. A parallel agency registered a fresh criminal case and conducted searches concerning alleged cheating of a public sector bank.
February 27, 2026
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Base-year revision of GDP raises growth estimates and updates methodology using tax and administrative data.
The national accounts have been rebased to 2022-23 and revised by incorporating GST, PFMS and vehicular-registration data to refine GDP measurement. The methodology now uses double deflation for manufacturing and agriculture, more granular deflators elsewhere, and compiles household-sector levels from annual enterprise and labour-force surveys instead of inter-survey proxies, producing revised quarterly and annual real and nominal GDP estimates and altered growth profiles across recent periods.
February 27, 2026
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Foreign exchange reserves dip, driven by declines in currency assets, gold holdings, SDRs and IMF reserve position.
India's foreign exchange reserves fell by USD 2.119 billion for the week ended February 20, lowering total reserves to USD 723.608 billion. The decline was driven by decreases in foreign currency assets (down USD 1.039 billion to USD 572.564 billion), gold reserves (down USD 977 million to USD 127.489 billion), Special Drawing Rights (down USD 84 million to USD 18.84 billion), and the reserve position with the IMF (down USD 18 million to USD 4.716 billion).
February 27, 2026
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Fiscal receipts and expenditure review reports major tax receipts, state tax devolution and primary outlays through January.
Consolidated monthly accounts to January 2026 report Centre receipts at 79.5% of revised estimates-mainly Tax Revenue with Non Tax and Non Debt Capital Receipts-and an increased transfer to States as Devolution of Share of Taxes. Total expenditure is 74.3% of estimates, split between Revenue and Capital Expenditure, with Interest Payments and Major Subsidies forming the principal components of Revenue Expenditure.
February 27, 2026
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DTAA narrowing prompts NRIs to move from traditional offshore structures to IFSCA regulated Gift City USD fund structures.
Tightening of treaty shopping rules under foreign exchange regulation, expanded beneficial ownership disclosure and increased tax authority scrutiny have eroded the cost benefit of Singapore and Mauritius structures, prompting NRIs to consider IFSCA regulated Gift City USD denominated funds. Gift City offers open ended equity funds, Category II AIFs with multi year lock ins and Category III AIFs for active equity strategies; advisers emphasise modelling embedded gains, consulting tax advisors on DTAA applicability, and assessing currency risk, liquidity profiles and the distinction between MOIC and IRR before restructuring.
February 27, 2026
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Pre-trial detention under the PMLA risks indefinite incarceration unless predicate offences and proceeds are judicially established.
The PMLA should not be deployed to permit coercive arrest and prolonged pre-trial detention based on provisional allegations before the foundational facts of the predicate offence and the status of alleged proceeds of crime are judicially established; provisional attachment may be justified to preserve investigation, but arrest and onerous bail conditions must not operate mechanically absent a crystallised, judicially cognisable predicate offence, and statutory powers must be harmonised with constitutional safeguards protecting personal liberty.
February 27, 2026
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Tariff rebalancing: joint statement allows modification of commitments if tariff changes affect the bilateral trade pact.
The joint statement accompanying the interim bilateral trade agreement provides for tariff rebalancing, permitting either party to modify its commitments if the other changes agreed tariff measures, thereby preserving reciprocal balance. This mechanism functions as an operative safeguard to adjust negotiated tariff concessions in response to unilateral tariff actions while the parties finalise the legal text.
February 27, 2026
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Basic salary threshold changes require employers to restructure pay and update payroll systems under new laws.
New labour codes and the Income Tax Act 2025 require employers to reconfigure compensation structures so Basic Pay meets the prescribed threshold, increasing provident fund, social security, gratuity and leave liabilities; update payroll systems and TDS reporting to new rules and forms; effect prompt final wage settlement on separation via automated HRMS workflows; maintain fully digitized statutory records for real time inspections; and extend proportionate statutory benefits to fixed term employees, prompting reassessment of project and seasonal workforce liabilities.
February 26, 2026
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Free trade agreement strengthens market access and builds on earlier economic reforms enabling sustained growth potential.
Economic reforms liberalised foreign exchange, dismantled bureaucratic restrictions and opened the Indian market to foreign investors, stabilising public finances and enabling prolonged economic growth. The recently concluded free trade agreement with the European Union is presented as a further deepening of market integration that builds on those reforms and enhances bilateral market access.
February 26, 2026
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Executive tariff authority struck down; bilateral trade negotiations paused pending legal text to implement tariff reductions.
Presidential tariff authority was found invalid, prompting immediate temporary tariff adjustments and delaying bilateral trade negotiations because the interim framework reducing duties must be converted into a legally binding text before implementation. Chief negotiators' meetings were postponed pending clarity on tariff legality and future orders, and India indicated it will resume talks once tariff treatment is clarified.
February 26, 2026
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Money laundering probe prompts extended questioning and attachment of assets in alleged bank fraud matter.
Allegations of large scale bank fraud and resultant money laundering underpin the probe: extended questioning under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act concerns alleged diversion of funds through foreign subsidiaries and offshore entities tied to a group company. Investigative measures include constitution of a specialized investigation team, attachment of assets under anti money laundering provisions, searches, arrests of former executives, and parallel criminal case registrations alleging bank cheating in separate loan transactions.
February 26, 2026
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Simultaneous insolvency proceedings allowed against principal debtor and guarantor, enabling creditors to pursue parallel recovery routes.
There is no statutory bar under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code to initiating concurrent CIRP proceedings against a principal debtor and its corporate guarantor for the same debt; a creditor's right to realize a guarantee must not be frustrated by requiring sequential insolvency processes, the IBC does not exempt guarantors during pendency of another process, and adjudicating authorities must examine such applications independently, consistent with the principle that a surety's liability is co-extensive with the principal debtor.
February 26, 2026
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Prosecution sanction requirement in PMLA cases accelerates trial after agency files requisite approvals before the special court.
Enforcement Directorate placed competent prosecution sanction and an equivalent CrPC sanction order before the Special PMLA Court to remedy procedural defects identified by the Supreme Court and to expedite trial in two money laundering prosecutions arising from the Aircel Maxis and INX Media matters. The agency's action validates earlier ED chargesheets and aims to overcome delays caused by challenges to PMLA sanction requirements.

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Customs & Trade

Crude oil prices spike as a broadening Iran war threatens both transport routes and production

March 10, 2026

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Chicago, Mar 9 (AP) Oil prices continued to soar on Monday as the Iran war intensified, threatening production and shipping across the Middle East and straining energy supplies worldwide.

The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, briefly surged to $119.50 per barrel on Monday — its highest level since the summer after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. West Texas Intermediate, which is produced in the U.S., also soared to $119.48 per barrel at one point.

Those prices fell under the $100 mark later Monday. But that's still much higher than than the roughly $70 a barrel crude was selling for before the U.S. and Israel launched the war against Iran on Feb. 28.

The conflict, now in its second week, is ensnaring countries and infrastructure critical to the production and transportation of oil and gas worldwide. And there's no end in sight. On Monday, Iran named Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his late father as supreme leader — a new sign of defiance from the country's leaders as the U.S. and Israel continue heavy bombardment.

Fears of attacks have all but stopped tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off Iran's coast where a fifth of the world's oil sails through on a typical day. Major oil producers in the region like Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE have cut production due to export constraints because they are running out of storage space. Iran, Israel and the U.S. have all struck oil and gas facilities since the war started, worsening supply concerns.

“In economic terms, this is already the largest oil supply shock ever," said Nicholas Mulder, an assitant professor of history who studies the economic impacts of wars at Cornell University. As Gulf producers reduce output and shut down production, he explained, “we are seeing roughly three to four times as many barrels of oil lost as during the 1973 and 1979 oil crises.” The war's toll on civilian targets and the energy sector grew over the weekend, notably as oil depots in Tehran smoldered following Sunday strikes by Israel. Meanwhile, across the Persian Gulf, Bahrain accused Iran of striking a desalination plant vital to drinking water supplies. Bahrain's national oil company declared force majeure for its shipments after an Iranian attack set its refinery complex ablaze. The legal declaration releases the company of contractual obligations because of extraordinary circumstances.

And the war has disrupted critical supply chains. Roughly 15 million barrels of crude oil — about 20% of the world's oil — typically are shipped every day through the Strait of Hormuz, according to independent research firm Rystad Energy. The threat of Iranian missile and drone attacks has all but stopped tankers carrying oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Iran from traveling through the strait.

Some energy experts warn of drawn-out ramifications.

Jim Burkhard, vice president and global head of crude oil research at S&P Global Energy, pointed particularly to rising production cuts and storage constraints — noting that the crisis had evolved past a solely transporation issue, and that restoring outputs will be “a massive technical exercise that could last weeks or more.” And even higher oil prices could arrive in the near future. If the Strait of Hormuz, in particular, remains closed for only a few weeks, oil and gas strategists at Macquarie Research said the price of crude could push to a $150 per barrel or higher. That would top previous peaks of around $147 reached just ahead of the 2008 financial crisis.

Others, however, expect disruptions to be more short-lived. Oxford Economics researchers predict prices will fall to an average of $80 a barrel for the quarter, but noted Monday that the “risk of a more prolonged crisis has clearly increased.” In response to soaring prices, there has also been discussions of dipping into emergency oil stockpiles in the U.S. and elsewhere. But on Monday, the Group of Seven major industrialized powers said it had decided against using their strategic reserves, at least for now.

“We're not there yet,” French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said after chairing a meeting of his G7 counterparts. Still, he told reporters in Brussels that the group was “ready to take necessary and coordinated steps in order to stabilize markets, such as strategic stockpiling." On Saturday, President Donald Trump downplayed the idea of turning to America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, maintaining U.S. supplies were ample and prices would soon fall.

Yet the surge in costs for oil and natural gas is still pushing fuel prices higher, cascading through a range of industries — from jet fuel for airplanes and car gas prices, to household energy sources for consumers.

Experts like Burkhard note that Asian economies are especially vulnerable, due to the region's heavy reliance on imports from the Middle East.

Iran exports roughly 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, mostly to China, which has called for an immediate end to the fighting. Beijing may need to look elsewhere for supply if Iran's exports are disrupted, another factor that could increase energy prices. In a briefing Monday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said China would "take necessary measures to safeguard its own energy security.” South Korean President Lee Jae Myung also warned of strict penalties for refiners and gas stations caught hoarding or colluding on prices, saying it would be wise to find alternatives to supplies that must travel through the Strait of Hormuz.

Across Southeast Asia, the spike in prices has led to long lines outside filling stations.

But price hikes are spreading worldwide. Higher energy costs can push overall inflation higher, straining household budgets and denting the consumer spending that is the dominant engine behind some big economies, including the U.S. Those worries have spilled into financial markets, pulling share prices sharply lower since the war began.

The U.S. is now a net exporter of oil, so it will “suffer less from a rally in Brent and WTI above $100” than Europe or Asia, FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted Monday. Still, he stressed past rapid surges in oil prices have contributed to U.S. recessions.

Gas prices have already climbed for American drivers. On Monday, the average U.S. price of a gallon of regular gasoline rose to $3.48, up nearly 50 cents from a week earlier, according to AAA motor club. Diesel, used heavily in shipping, sold for about $4.66 a gallon, a weekly increase of more than 80 cents. (AP) AMS

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