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March 4, 2026
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Tariff reduction boosts export prospects while domestic demand weakness keeps manufacturing contraction risk elevated in coming months.
China's official manufacturing PMI returned to contraction, driven by weak domestic consumption and real estate weakness, while private-sector PMI showed export-led expansion. A judicial reduction of reciprocal tariffs has lowered US tariff levels globally and is expected to provide a modest boost to exports. Upcoming high-level bilateral talks and China's national congress, which will set a growth target and approve a five-year plan focused on technology and self-reliance, are poised to influence near-term manufacturing prospects.
March 4, 2026
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Currency depreciation driven by crude oil price shock and capital outflows, worsening trade balance risk and market volatility.
Rupee depreciation accelerated as a spike in international crude prices amid geopolitical tensions prompted safe-haven flows and foreign portfolio outflows, driving the currency to a record low, pressuring equity markets and raising the risk of a larger fuel import bill that could strain the trade balance and market stability.
March 3, 2026
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GST input tax credit fraud exposed; arrests and shell company network identification trigger criminal and financial probes.
An organised racket used stolen identity documents to register shell firms, obtain GST numbers and open bank accounts to perform large-scale GST Input Tax Credit (ITC) fraud by issuing fake invoices and generating fraudulent e-way bills; funds were routed through multiple accounts, criminal cases for cheating and forgery filed, evidence recovered and coordination with tax authorities and banks is underway.
March 3, 2026
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Fraudulent GST registrations enabling Input Tax Credit misuse uncovered; coordinated raids, electronic forensics and an arrest followed.
A large-scale operation procured GST registrations for non-existent firms through forged and fraudulently obtained KYC documents, producing fake taxpayers and fraudulent invoices that enabled the wrongful availment and passing on of Input Tax Credit; coordinated IP tracking and searches led to seizure of electronic evidence and documents and to the arrest and judicial remand of a key suspect, with further investigation ongoing.
March 3, 2026
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Supply chain resilience measures initiated to monitor West Asia risks and coordinate trade, logistics and customs responses.
The government has set up an inter-ministerial group to monitor West Asia developments daily, assess vulnerabilities in shipping, logistics, exports and critical imports, and coordinate inter-ministerial actions. Measures include procedural flexibility in export authorisations, coordination with customs and port authorities to ensure smooth clearance, engagement with financial and insurance institutions to safeguard exporter interests, and a 24x7 DGFT help desk. The IMG for supply chain resilience includes departments of financial services, external affairs, shipping, petroleum and customs to facilitate coordination, monitoring and follow-up amid exporter concerns about surcharges, insurance gaps, route diversions and increased transit times.
March 3, 2026
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Force majeure declaration halts key LNG deliveries, prompting contractual supply cuts and reliance on pricier spot procurement.
Qatar declared force majeure on LNG deliveries after production halted due to regional hostilities and maritime disruptions, prompting curtailed supplies to industry and relief from supplier performance obligations. Importers are assessing long term contract entitlements, pursuing spot market purchases, and reallocating available cargoes while contending with higher war risk insurance, shipping costs, and transit constraints through the Strait of Hormuz.
March 3, 2026
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Fuel stock coverage ensures short-term supply continuity by using strategic reserves and diversified sourcing to mitigate disruptions.
India maintains sufficient crude and refined fuel inventories to manage short-term disruptions from West Asia hostilities, with strategic petroleum reserves and commercial stockpiles providing roughly six to eight weeks' coverage. The government has a 24x7 control room for continuous monitoring and contingency measures include drawing on strategic reserves, using commercial stocks, and diversifying sourcing from suppliers outside the Strait of Hormuz to sustain availability and affordability while managing price and freight risks.
March 3, 2026
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Debt-to-GSDP reduction signals fiscal consolidation as borrowings largely went to service prior liabilities under current administration.
The administration reports a reduction in the state's debt-to-GSDP ratio from its level at the start of the term and asserts that most recent borrowings were applied to servicing legacy debt, including repayment of significant portions of past principal and interest. The Finance Minister also highlights increased mobilisation of GST and excise revenues during the current four-year period relative to prior administrations, presented as strengthening fiscal capacity.
March 3, 2026
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Mandatory biometric update for children enables Aadhaar authentication for benefits, scholarships and examinations.
The UIDAI has implemented a mandatory biometric update (MBU) programme for school children aged 7-15, delivered through in-school camps and enrolment centres, with MBU made free for a limited period. Integration with UDISE+ enables identification of students due for updates and monitoring of MBU status. Initial enrolment below age five records demographic data only; fingerprints and iris biometrics are captured later via the MBU process once children reach the prescribed ages, enabling subsequent Aadhaar authentication for benefits, scholarships and examinations.
March 3, 2026
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Free trade agreements prompt industry to boost investment, research, and quality to expand manufacturing exports and access markets.
India aims to use free trade agreements to expand manufacturing exports by urging industry to increase investment, adopt new technologies, and prioritise research and quality to meet global standards. The budget supports this through record capital expenditure for infrastructure and logistics, reforms in MSME classification to improve credit and technology access, and sectoral missions including the BioPharma Shakti Mission and the Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Mission to boost advanced manufacturing and sustainability-linked market access.
March 3, 2026
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Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement negotiations launched to set a negotiation framework and pursue an ambitious, balanced trade pact.
Terms of Reference for the India-Canada Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement establish the negotiation framework-setting format, frequency and approach-to guide talks toward an ambitious, balanced and mutually beneficial CEPA covering trade in goods, services and other mutually agreed policy areas, reflecting prior leader-level direction to advance negotiations.
March 3, 2026
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Quality standards and R&D investment urged to align industry with free trade agreement opportunities and export growth.
Industry is urged to accelerate investment and prioritise research and development to meet global quality standards and fully exploit opportunities from free trade agreements; early adoption of clean technologies, including carbon capture initiatives, and expanded infrastructure and logistics spending are presented as necessary complements to enhance export readiness and supply chain resilience.
March 2, 2026
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Reservation for Agniveers in police expands recruitment priority while a new Agri Discom targets uninterrupted farm power supply.
The budget creates a dedicated Haryana Agri Discom to deliver uninterrupted, reliable electricity and expedited services to all agricultural feeders and consumers, alongside biomass power projects and cropping incentives. Concurrently, it provides reserved recruitment access for returning defence personnel in the state police, forms a State Disaster Response Force with Agniveer participation, establishes an Anti Terrorist Squad under IG rank, and commits funds to rural employment guarantees, PACS reform, a Green Climate Resilience Fund, and enhanced crop compensation schemes.
March 2, 2026
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Trade facilitation to protect exporters amid West Asia crisis, focusing on logistics continuity and insurer coordination.
Government coordination aims to maintain continuity of export import logistics amid the West Asia crisis by monitoring routes, capacity, surcharges and equipment availability, directing facilitative measures including procedural flexibility in export authorisations, customs coordination, engagement with financial and insurance institutions, and targeted support for time sensitive exports; exporters sought restoration of higher RoDTEP rates, restraint on insurance premium increases by ECGC, broader insurance cover and sector specific timeline relief.
March 2, 2026
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Currency depreciation worsened as geopolitical strikes and oil price surge prompted safe-haven flows and foreign fund outflows.
The rupee sharply depreciated against the US dollar due to geopolitical escalation and a crude oil price spike, which triggered safe-haven dollar demand and foreign institutional equity outflows. Higher oil prices threaten to widen India's import bill and current account pressures, producing defensive market positioning and a negative bias for the currency, even as the Reserve Bank of India intervened in the interbank market to limit further depreciation.
March 2, 2026
Show AI Summary
Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement negotiations launched to cover goods and services and pursue an ambitious bilateral trade pact.
Launch of negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Canada, with signed Terms of Reference to set the format, frequency and approach for talks covering trade in goods, services and other policy areas. The ToR aim to guide negotiators toward an ambitious, balanced pact, resuming talks from the start after a prior pause. Negotiations target expanded market access and increased bilateral trade, identifying key goods and services sectors and naming chief negotiators for each country.
March 2, 2026
Show AI Summary
Fuel pricing policy shields consumers by using company-held margins to stabilize retail petrol and diesel amid global crude spikes.
India's fuel pricing policy freezes retail petrol and diesel prices by allowing public sector oil companies to absorb losses when international crude prices rise and build margins when prices fall; this cushion-based approach, overseen by the Oil Ministry, will continue unless a sustained, very large spike in crude or prolonged disruptions (notably via the Strait of Hormuz) make it untenable, exposing vulnerabilities from high import dependence and increased procurement, freight, and insurance costs.
March 2, 2026
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Travel suspension to Middle East prompts IT firms to enforce employee safety measures and remote work arrangements.
Indian IT firms have suspended or deferred travel to the Middle East and implemented employee safety measures: TCS suspended all incoming and outgoing travel, advised associates to stay indoors, activated a call tree, and is coordinating with local authorities and embassies; Wipro issued a no travel advisory for multiple countries and directed regional staff to follow local guidance. Nasscom advised members to defer travel and enable work from home arrangements as a precaution while monitoring operations and preparing further measures if required.
March 2, 2026
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Customs enforcement against areca nut smuggling intensified, emphasising prosecution under prohibitory orders and strengthened border surveillance.
Intensified enforcement targets areca nut smuggling from Myanmar due to evasion of import duties and market harm to local growers. Authorities have registered numerous cases and made arrests under prohibitory-order offences prosecuted via the Indian Penal Code and the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita, and separate prosecutions under the Customs Act. The government affirms continued prohibition, enhanced border surveillance, and a zero-tolerance stance including probes into alleged official complicity.
March 2, 2026
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Energy supply disruption risks push global markets lower as oil and gas price spikes strain trade and inflation expectations.
Energy supply disruptions from Middle East hostilities sharply pushed up oil, gas and fuel prices, driving marketwide volatility as investors rotated into safe havens. Attacks affecting transit through the Strait of Hormuz threaten continuity of crude and LNG exports, prompting buyers to seek alternate sources and tightening physical markets. Higher wholesale inflation readings increase the prospect of delayed monetary easing, reinforcing downward pressure on risk assets and elevating short term downside risk to trade and investment flows.

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Customs & Trade

Crude oil prices spike as a broadening Iran war threatens both transport routes and production

March 10, 2026

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Chicago, Mar 9 (AP) Oil prices continued to soar on Monday as the Iran war intensified, threatening production and shipping across the Middle East and straining energy supplies worldwide.

The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, briefly surged to $119.50 per barrel on Monday — its highest level since the summer after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. West Texas Intermediate, which is produced in the U.S., also soared to $119.48 per barrel at one point.

Those prices fell under the $100 mark later Monday. But that's still much higher than than the roughly $70 a barrel crude was selling for before the U.S. and Israel launched the war against Iran on Feb. 28.

The conflict, now in its second week, is ensnaring countries and infrastructure critical to the production and transportation of oil and gas worldwide. And there's no end in sight. On Monday, Iran named Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his late father as supreme leader — a new sign of defiance from the country's leaders as the U.S. and Israel continue heavy bombardment.

Fears of attacks have all but stopped tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off Iran's coast where a fifth of the world's oil sails through on a typical day. Major oil producers in the region like Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE have cut production due to export constraints because they are running out of storage space. Iran, Israel and the U.S. have all struck oil and gas facilities since the war started, worsening supply concerns.

“In economic terms, this is already the largest oil supply shock ever," said Nicholas Mulder, an assitant professor of history who studies the economic impacts of wars at Cornell University. As Gulf producers reduce output and shut down production, he explained, “we are seeing roughly three to four times as many barrels of oil lost as during the 1973 and 1979 oil crises.” The war's toll on civilian targets and the energy sector grew over the weekend, notably as oil depots in Tehran smoldered following Sunday strikes by Israel. Meanwhile, across the Persian Gulf, Bahrain accused Iran of striking a desalination plant vital to drinking water supplies. Bahrain's national oil company declared force majeure for its shipments after an Iranian attack set its refinery complex ablaze. The legal declaration releases the company of contractual obligations because of extraordinary circumstances.

And the war has disrupted critical supply chains. Roughly 15 million barrels of crude oil — about 20% of the world's oil — typically are shipped every day through the Strait of Hormuz, according to independent research firm Rystad Energy. The threat of Iranian missile and drone attacks has all but stopped tankers carrying oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Iran from traveling through the strait.

Some energy experts warn of drawn-out ramifications.

Jim Burkhard, vice president and global head of crude oil research at S&P Global Energy, pointed particularly to rising production cuts and storage constraints — noting that the crisis had evolved past a solely transporation issue, and that restoring outputs will be “a massive technical exercise that could last weeks or more.” And even higher oil prices could arrive in the near future. If the Strait of Hormuz, in particular, remains closed for only a few weeks, oil and gas strategists at Macquarie Research said the price of crude could push to a $150 per barrel or higher. That would top previous peaks of around $147 reached just ahead of the 2008 financial crisis.

Others, however, expect disruptions to be more short-lived. Oxford Economics researchers predict prices will fall to an average of $80 a barrel for the quarter, but noted Monday that the “risk of a more prolonged crisis has clearly increased.” In response to soaring prices, there has also been discussions of dipping into emergency oil stockpiles in the U.S. and elsewhere. But on Monday, the Group of Seven major industrialized powers said it had decided against using their strategic reserves, at least for now.

“We're not there yet,” French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said after chairing a meeting of his G7 counterparts. Still, he told reporters in Brussels that the group was “ready to take necessary and coordinated steps in order to stabilize markets, such as strategic stockpiling." On Saturday, President Donald Trump downplayed the idea of turning to America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, maintaining U.S. supplies were ample and prices would soon fall.

Yet the surge in costs for oil and natural gas is still pushing fuel prices higher, cascading through a range of industries — from jet fuel for airplanes and car gas prices, to household energy sources for consumers.

Experts like Burkhard note that Asian economies are especially vulnerable, due to the region's heavy reliance on imports from the Middle East.

Iran exports roughly 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, mostly to China, which has called for an immediate end to the fighting. Beijing may need to look elsewhere for supply if Iran's exports are disrupted, another factor that could increase energy prices. In a briefing Monday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said China would "take necessary measures to safeguard its own energy security.” South Korean President Lee Jae Myung also warned of strict penalties for refiners and gas stations caught hoarding or colluding on prices, saying it would be wise to find alternatives to supplies that must travel through the Strait of Hormuz.

Across Southeast Asia, the spike in prices has led to long lines outside filling stations.

But price hikes are spreading worldwide. Higher energy costs can push overall inflation higher, straining household budgets and denting the consumer spending that is the dominant engine behind some big economies, including the U.S. Those worries have spilled into financial markets, pulling share prices sharply lower since the war began.

The U.S. is now a net exporter of oil, so it will “suffer less from a rally in Brent and WTI above $100” than Europe or Asia, FxPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich noted Monday. Still, he stressed past rapid surges in oil prices have contributed to U.S. recessions.

Gas prices have already climbed for American drivers. On Monday, the average U.S. price of a gallon of regular gasoline rose to $3.48, up nearly 50 cents from a week earlier, according to AAA motor club. Diesel, used heavily in shipping, sold for about $4.66 a gallon, a weekly increase of more than 80 cents. (AP) AMS

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