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    US futures, Asian shares open lower, oil prices soar as US and Israeli attack Iran
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March 2, 2026
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Energy supply disruption risks trigger global market selloff and safe-haven flows, lifting oil and gold while bond yields fall.
Global markets moved to risk-off after US and Israeli attacks on Iran: equities opened lower while gold and government bonds rallied and oil prices surged on fears that strikes and incidents in the Strait of Hormuz could restrict oil and LNG exports, raising the prospect of higher energy and production costs; higher-than-expected wholesale inflation readings were identified as a factor that may affect the central bank's timing for interest-rate cuts.
March 2, 2026
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Rupee depreciation driven by crude price surge, dollar strength and foreign fund outflows pressures local currency lower.
Rupee depreciation in early trade reflected external pressures-higher crude prices, a stronger US dollar, and escalated Middle East tensions-compounded by negative domestic equity sentiment and significant foreign institutional outflows. Market indicators included a firmer dollar index, rising Brent crude futures, and a recent dip in forex reserves, while analysts warned of increased import bill risk due to India's reliance on fuel imports.
March 2, 2026
Show AI Summary
Energy supply disruption threatens global oil flows, driving sharp price increases and straining fuel and goods markets worldwide.
Attacks and retaliatory strikes in the Middle East disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz and regional export infrastructure, triggering sharp crude price rises and heightened risk of sustained supply constraints; OPEC+ announced production increases, but analysts stress that constrained export routes limit the immediate effectiveness of added output.
March 2, 2026
Show AI Summary
Maritime chokepoint security threatened, risking oil export disruptions and limiting the relief from increased production.
Attacks and military strikes in the Middle East disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, risking restrictions on regional crude exports and driving upward pressure on oil and gasoline prices. Because the strait is a critical global oil chokepoint, market concerns focus on whether barrels can physically move; consequently, OPEC+ announcements of increased production may provide limited immediate relief if export routes remain constrained.
March 2, 2026
Show AI Summary
Oil supply security: production increases meet limited relief when export routes through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted.
OPEC+ announced an April increase in crude production intended to augment available supply while regional military attacks and disruptions to tanker movements - particularly through the Strait of Hormuz - threaten export routes. The notice underscores that interruptions to transit can limit the relief additional output provides and that access to export channels will be decisive for near-term market stability and price direction.
March 1, 2026
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Energy security measures cushion supply shocks but elevate price volatility and macroeconomic pressures for oil importers.
Escalating tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz create near-term energy security risks for India manifested chiefly as price volatility and macroeconomic pressure rather than immediate physical shortages. Layered inventory buffers - commercial stocks, in transit cargoes and Strategic Petroleum Reserves - combined with diversified sourcing options (including Atlantic suppliers and Russian optionality) reduce the likelihood of sustained supply disruption, though longer transit times and LNG contractual rigidity limit rapid substitution and increase vulnerability to prolonged closures.
March 1, 2026
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GST revenue growth signals strengthened tax receipts driven by import collections and improved domestic sales affecting fiscal enforcement.
A court ordered continued judicial custody for eight alleged Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives accused of illegal entry and procuring forged identity documents while another court directed the immediate release of 14 student protesters arrested after a campus demonstration. Separately, gross Goods and Services Tax collections rose year-on-year, led by higher import receipts and improved domestic sales, reflecting stronger enforcement and compliance dynamics within the indirect tax regime.
March 1, 2026
Show AI Summary
SGST growth reflects strengthened tax administration and compliance following GST rate rationalisation, bolstering state revenues.
Haryana reports marked year on year expansion in State Goods and Services Tax (SGST) receipts for 2025-26, attributing the improvement to strengthened tax administration, enhanced compliance stemming from departmental reforms and better tax analysis, facilitation via district GST Suvidha Kendras, and the GST Council's September 2025 rate rationalisation as complementary drivers of revenue growth.
March 1, 2026
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GST revenue growth maintained despite rate reductions; enhanced compliance and AI-driven analytics strengthened state collections effectively.
Andhra Pradesh achieves record net Goods and Services Tax receipts for February, with SGST and IGST growth offsetting marginal gross GST decline. Revenue momentum is supported by higher professional tax and petroleum VAT receipts. The state credits strengthened compliance-targeted audits, stricter return filing, coordinated IGST settlements, and performance based officer deployment-and advanced data analytics and AI oversight that detect evasion and reverse ineligible input tax credit claims for measurable recoveries.
March 1, 2026
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Shipping risk allocation: exporters urged to avoid CIF and prefer FOB as geopolitical risks raise freight and insurance exposure.
Advises exporters to avoid new Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) commitments to Iran and Gulf destinations and to conclude sales on Free-On-Board (FOB) terms where feasible so freight, insurance and related risks rest with the buyer. Notes that West Asia instability may sharply increase bunker prices, disrupt vessel availability, raise freight and insurance premiums, and produce price volatility; urges restraint, avoidance of open-ended unhedged positions, and monitoring of consignments in transit or awaiting clearance.
March 1, 2026
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GST rate restructuring boosts revenues as import and domestic consumption support post cut recovery in collections.
GST collections rose year on year following a statutory GST rate restructuring that reduced rates on numerous items and consolidated slabs; import revenue and domestic consumption supported recovery after an initial post cut dip. The pattern includes higher refunds, lower cess receipts, and divergent state level growth, raising considerations for revenue forecasting, state fiscal impacts, and the operational stability of the restructured indirect tax framework.
March 1, 2026
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Export disruptions to Iran risk shipment halts and payment delays for rice exporters amid regional conflict.
Shipments to Iran and consignments to Afghanistan via Bandar Abbas have been held up following military strikes, causing immediate shipment disruptions and likely payment delays until the security situation improves; exporters warn the impact depends on conflict duration and note heightened commercial risk from lack of war-risk insurance for vessels.
March 1, 2026
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Goods and Services Tax collections rose driven by import revenue growth, with higher refunds and lower cess receipts.
Gross collections under the Goods and Services Tax increased year on year, driven mainly by a stronger rise in import related GST receipts; domestic GST rose more modestly. Total refunds increased, and net GST receipts were higher year on year, while cess receipts declined markedly compared with the prior year period.
March 1, 2026
Show AI Summary
Energy supply resilience mitigates immediate oil disruption risk, though prolonged Hormuz closure heightens price and supply concerns.
India's layered inventory buffers - commercial stocks, in-transit crude and strategic petroleum reserves - and full refinery tanks reduce the likelihood of immediate physical disruption from a short-term Strait of Hormuz closure, shifting the principal near-term impact to price, freight and insurance volatility; prolonged closure would more severely affect LNG and LPG due to contract rigidity and transit dependence, prompting reliance on diversified sourcing, Russian optionality, longer transit planning and strategic reserve drawdowns.
March 1, 2026
Show AI Summary
Bail parity: Former CMO official released after court found investigation substantially complete and parity with other accused.
The court evaluated bail petitions in parallel Economic Offences Wing and Enforcement Directorate inquiries alleging a syndicate diverted liquor to government shops and laundered proceeds; it found the investigation substantially complete, trial unlikely to conclude soon, and that continued detention would not serve justice. Prosecution relied on asserted digital communications and co-accused statements alleging supervisory role and receipt/handling of proceeds; defence disputed incriminating material, reliance on statements, selective arrests and urged parity and repeated prior incarcerations. The court held evidentiary weight requires trial testing and noted parity with other released accused.
February 28, 2026
Show AI Summary
Bail parity principle applied where investigational delay and statement based evidence affect custodial necessity in money laundering cases.
High Court review of bail in concurrent EOW criminal and ED money laundering investigations centred on investigational stage, evidentiary weight of digital material and co accused statements, and parity with released principal accused. The court noted protracted investigation timelines, contested allegations about supervisory involvement and receipt of alleged proceeds, and held that inferential and statement based evidence must be evaluated at trial, making the stage of probe and likelihood of prolonged proceedings relevant to custodial decisions.
February 28, 2026
Show AI Summary
AI policy implementation: ensure agricultural AI delivers to farmers via infrastructure, governance and data protection.
Maharashtra's agricultural AI policy promises institutional development, digital public infrastructure, financial support and capacity building, but implementation is lagging: allocated funds remain unspent, innovation centres and leadership appointments are pending, and summit activities have not translated into grassroots adoption. Addressing the rural digital divide, establishing data protection safeguards, auditing the crop insurance scheme, stabilising price support and export policy, and creating a concrete roadmap with oversight are identified as necessary to ensure AI tools benefit ordinary farmers.
February 28, 2026
Show AI Summary
Oil supply disruption could trigger sharp global price swings as Middle East strikes raise market uncertainty and transit risks.
Oil supply uncertainty from recent strikes threatens significant market volatility: a contained campaign may cause a short-lived price spike if shipping and infrastructure remain intact, while broader disruption of pipelines, terminals or tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would force buyers-particularly China-to seek alternative supplies, amplifying sustained upward pressure on global oil prices.
February 28, 2026
Show AI Summary
Supply chain disruption threatens longer routes and higher shipping and insurance costs for exporters in western markets.
Exporters expect logistical and insurance-cost disruptions from Middle East hostilities: altered air routes and uncertainty through the Red Sea and Gulf straits may force rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, adding substantial transit time. Heightened geopolitical risk is likely to raise marine insurance premiums and container freight rates, increasing shipping costs; prolonged instability could also push up global energy-related input costs and exert currency pressure, prompting exporters to seek calibrated government support to sustain competitiveness.
February 28, 2026
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Investment fraud: man arrested for allegedly inducing funds via a false export venture and issuing dishonoured cheques.
The accused is alleged to have induced investment by falsely portraying a large meat export venture, obtained funds through bank transfers and arranged foreign payments via associates, and issued cheques despite insufficient funds; he absconded after committing the offence, was later arrested, and investigations aim to trace co accused and recover the cheated amount.

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Customs & Trade

Modi, Lula discuss US supreme court striking down reciprocal tariffs; set USD 30 bn annual trade target

February 21, 2026

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New Delhi, Feb 21 (PTI) India and Brazil on Saturday set an annual bilateral trade target of USD 30 billion by 2030 and signed a key pact for cooperation in critical minerals with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva resolving to ramp up boost bilateral ties and jointly navigate the geopolitical turbulence.

In their wide-ranging talks, Modi and Lula also discussed implications of US Supreme Court striking down President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs.

Following wide-ranging talks between Modi and Lula, the two sides signed nine pacts including one on cooperation in areas of rare earth minerals and another on forging a futuristic digital partnership.

Secretary (East) in the Ministry of External Affairs P Kumaran said at a media briefing that there was a discussion between the two sides on US trade policy and the implications of the US Supreme Court judgement.

"Both leaders agreed that it is a rather new development that both sides need to study its implications and wait for further developments by the US administration," he said.

"We will be essentially in wait and watch mode on how the administration responds to this judgement and whether any further steps are taken and to study the implications for our trade," he said.

US President Donald Trump has imposed a new 10 per cent global tariff after the US Supreme Court struck down the reciprocal tariffs.

Kumaran said Modi and Lula agreed that the bilateral trade should be doubled to USD 30 billion by 2030.

In their talks, the two leaders vowed to shore up bilateral ties in a range of other sectors including defence, energy, healthcare and digital public infrastructure while emphasising on deeper India-Brazil strategic engagement to navigate the fragmented geopolitical environment.

Modi said India and Brazil are unanimous that terrorism and its supporters are "enemies" of humanity even as he noted that both sides agreed that reform of global institutions is essential to address the challenges facing the world.

Lula is in India on a five-day visit from February 18 primarily to attend the AI Impact Summit and hold talks with Modi.

"Brazil is India's largest trading partner in Latin America. We are committed to taking bilateral trade beyond USD 20 billion in the next five years. Our trade is not just a figure, it's a reflection of trust," Modi said in his media statement in presence of the Brazilian leader.

In 2024-25, India-Brazil trade volume reached USD 12 billion, with Indian exports amounting to USD 6.77 billion and imports from Brazil totaling USD 5.43 billion.

In July last year, Modi and Lula had set a bilateral trade target of USD 20 billion by 2030. Kumaran said the two leaders "agreed that the trade should at least double to USD 30 billion by 2030".

The prime minister said the agreement on critical minerals and rare earth is a major step towards building resilient supply chains.

Besides the pact on critical minerals, India and Brazil also firmed up a joint declaration on digital partnership, and signed Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) for cooperation in areas of mining, MSMEs, health-care and traditional knowledge system.

"Our cooperation in the field of defence is also continuously growing. This is a great example of mutual trust and strategic coordination. We will continue to strengthen this win-win partnership," he said.

In the context of enhancing defence ties, the two sides discussed cooperation for maintenance of their French-origin Scorpene submarines under a tripartite agreement between Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited and the Indian and Brazilian Navies.

Brazilian aerospace major Embraer's plan to set up an assembly line for its E175 regional jet in India also found mention in the discussions. The Indian side also called for establishment of a maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) facility in India by Embraer.

In his remarks, the prime minister noted that the voice of the Global South becomes stronger and more confident when India and Brazil work together.

"The India-Brazil partnership on the global stage has been strong and influential. As democratic countries, we will continue to advance the priorities and aspirations of the Global South," he said.

"We believe that every problem must be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy. India and Brazil are unanimous that terrorism and its supporters are enemies of all humanity," he said.

In his remarks, President Lula slammed terror attacks in Kashmir, and said terrorism must not be linked to any religion or nationality.

He said that the "turbulent global environment" requires India and Brazil to deepen our strategic ties and that dialogue between the two powers is an engagement of "superlatives".

"We are not just the two biggest democracies of the Global South. This is a meeting of a digital superpower with a renewable energy superpower. We are both mega diverse countries and we both defend multilateralism and peace," he said.

The Brazilian leader argued that there is no possibility of a fair and sustainable development in a conflict-ridden world and quoted PM Modi's remarks at last year's BRICS summit that one can't run "21st-century software on 20th-century typewriters." "We emphasised our commitment to the UN reform, particularly of the UN Security Council so that it represents the interests of the Global South. Brazil and India are natural candidates to become permanent members of the Security Council," he said.

Modi and Lula unequivocally condemned terrorism and violent extremism, in all its forms including cross-border terrorism and called for decisive and concerted international efforts to combat terrorism in a comprehensive and sustained manner.

In his media statement, Modi said India-Brazil relations have long benefited from President Lula's vision and that his visit has given new energy to the strategic partnership between the two nations.

Modi and Lula also discussed the expansion of the India-Mercosur preferential trade agreement (PTA). The prime minister said it will deepen economic cooperation.

"Our cooperation in technology and innovation is important for both countries, as well as for the entire Global South. I am pleased that we are working on establishing a Centre of Excellence for Digital Public Infrastructure in Brazil," Modi said.

"We are also prioritizing our cooperation in areas such as Artificial Intelligence, supercomputers, semiconductors, and blockchain. We both believe that technology must be inclusive and it must become a bridge for shared progress," he said.

The prime minister described India-Brazil energy cooperation as a strong pillar of the relationship.

"Along with hydrocarbons, we are also accelerating cooperation in many areas such as renewable energy, ethanol blending, sustainable aviation fuel. Brazil's active participation in the "Global Biofuel Alliance" reflects our shared commitment to a green future," he said.

In the talks, Brazil also proposed to co-chair the India-backed Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI).

"I congratulate President Lula for this initiative. Brazil's extensive experience in this field will significantly contribute to further strengthening the CDRI," Modi said. PTI MPB ZMN

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