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    RBI keeps rates unchanged, retains neutral stance; outlook uncertain on El Nino, geopolitical risks
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August 5, 2026
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Neutral monetary policy stance keeps benchmark rates unchanged while inflation risks, liquidity management and consumer-protection reforms remain under review.
Monetary policy maintains the benchmark policy rate unchanged and retains a neutral stance, with future decisions guided by incoming data. The central bank remains committed to aligning headline inflation with its medium-term target while monitoring food, fuel and other input-cost risks. Surplus liquidity will be managed through two-way operations, and the regulatory framework for interest rates on advances is proposed to be harmonised and standardised across regulated entities to improve transparency and consumer protection.
August 5, 2026
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Export-only e-commerce inventory framework enables seller exports through registered exporters while requiring traceability, timely payments and domestic-diversion controls.
The export-only inventory framework permits eligible e-commerce entities to export through a registered Exporter-on-Record, which procures goods from Indian Sellers-on-Record against confirmed overseas orders and assumes export and destination-country compliance responsibilities. Inventory must be segregated, digitally traceable and cannot be diverted to domestic sale. The framework requires timely seller payments, visibility of overseas sales and shipment information, proportional pass-through of export rebates and refunds, annual compliance certification and digital records.
August 5, 2026
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Gold smuggling enforcement targets concealed foreign-origin gold, airport control evasion, and illicit railway transport under customs law.
Gold smuggling enforcement operations under the Customs Act, 1962 involved alleged concealment and unlawful movement of foreign-origin gold. At an international airport, an alleged syndicate used an airline employee to transfer gold received from arriving passengers outside Customs and immigration controls, with gold disguised as silver-coloured bracelets. A separate railway operation concerned gold concealed in a specially made cloth waist belt and intended for delivery to a jeweller. The actions addressed concealment, evasion of Customs controls, and illicit transport of foreign-origin gold.
August 5, 2026
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Digital bank-record evidence gains a technology-neutral framework through expanded admissibility, certified authentication, and regulated production of bankers' books.
The Bankers' Books Evidence Bill, 2026, modernises the evidentiary treatment of banking records by extending "bankers' books" to physical, electronic, digital, virtual and cloud-based records. It recognises electronic bank records as admissible evidence, allows production in physical or electronic form, and provides for standardised certificates authenticated by manual, digital or electronic signatures. The Bill also defines "special cause" for compelling bank officers to produce records or testify where the bank is not a party, and permits extension to specified financial-sector entities subject to conditions.
August 5, 2026
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Closing auction price discovery and unchanged policy rates shaped volatile equity trading amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
The Monetary Policy Committee retained the policy repo rate and neutral policy stance while seeking greater clarity on inflation risks from higher energy costs. Stock exchanges introduced the Closing Auction Session for eligible futures and options shares in the equity cash segment to determine closing prices through a more transparent and robust auction-based price-discovery mechanism. Equity markets showed volatile, limited gains amid geopolitical uncertainty, energy-price concerns, profit booking and the new mechanism's introduction.
August 5, 2026
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Pakistan-origin import prohibition covers third-country routing, false origin declarations, forged documents, and trans-shipment arrangements used to evade restrictions.
The prohibition on direct or indirect import or transit of goods originating in or exported from Pakistan extends to goods routed through third countries and falsely declared as having another origin. Misdeclaration of country of origin, false descriptions, forged documentation, and trans-shipment arrangements may contravene that prohibition and invite action under the Customs Act, 1962. Dry dates declared as UAE-origin and Guggul resin declared as Somalia-origin were investigated as goods of Pakistan origin routed through Dubai.
August 5, 2026
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Foreign exchange stability measures support the rupee as policy continuity, capital inflows and global risk sentiment shape currency expectations.
Foreign exchange market movement reflected a rupee appreciation against the US dollar following the monetary policy decision to retain the repo rate and neutral stance. Market sentiment was supported by softer crude oil prices, weakness in the US dollar, lower US Treasury yields and foreign equity inflows. The monetary policy framework sought to support capital inflows and maintain an orderly rupee trajectory, with geopolitical developments and US economic data remaining relevant to near-term exchange-rate expectations.
August 5, 2026
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Money-laundering investigation examines alleged proceeds from chit fund operations following searches linked to a former company managing director.
A money-laundering investigation concerns alleged proceeds of crime arising from a multi-state chit fund operation associated with Welfare Building and Estates Pvt Ltd. The company is alleged to have collected investor deposits through investment schemes promising high returns before defaulting. Searches at premises linked to its former managing director form part of the inquiry into alleged laundering. The underlying alleged fraud had previously resulted in a CBI case and multiple police FIRs.
August 5, 2026
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Political restraint in public communications was urged, alongside adherence to principal-speaker protocol during press conferences and media interactions.
Political restraint in public communications was urged after a social-media remark directed at Sunetra Pawar was criticised as ideologically irresponsible. It was stated that regret alone was insufficient and that leaders should exercise care in public comments. Press-conference protocol was also emphasised: the principal dignitary should respond to media questions, and those seated alongside should not participate in the interaction. Party colleagues were expected to act more responsibly in future media engagements.
August 5, 2026
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Neutral monetary policy stance continues as inflation clarity is awaited, alongside cooperative banking and lending-rate transparency measures.
Monetary policy maintained the benchmark policy repo rate and a neutral stance pending clearer evidence that energy-cost pressures will generate broad-based inflation. Inflation is expected to rise temporarily due principally to food and fuel prices before moderating, while core inflation remains benign. The approach remains data-dependent, supported by two-way liquidity operations. Proposed measures include resuming urban cooperative bank licensing, revising rural cooperative bank credit-monitoring directions, and harmonising interest-rate regulation on advances across regulated entities to improve transparency and consumer protection.
August 5, 2026
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Repo rate stability preserves the policy stance amid lower inflation projections, stronger growth expectations and external-sector resilience.
Monetary policy maintained the repo rate at 5.25 per cent following a unanimous policy committee decision. The growth forecast for FY27 was marginally increased, while the inflation projection was lowered. Inflation conditions remain uncertain because of monsoon, El Nino and geopolitical developments. Liquidity remained in surplus, and external-sector indicators reflected a current-account surplus, buoyant foreign direct investment inflows, renewed foreign portfolio investment inflows, and adequate foreign-exchange reserves.
August 5, 2026
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Polymer currency notes target improved durability as monetary policy remains data-dependent and rupee management pursues an orderly trajectory.
Polymer currency notes are targeted for circulation at the beginning of the next financial year, subject to implementation proceeding as planned. They are intended to improve durability, especially for lower-denomination notes with high circulation velocity. Monetary policy decisions will remain data-dependent and focused on aligning headline inflation with its medium-term target. Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) scheme inflows are expected to remain healthy until closure, with no proposal for premature termination. Rupee management aims to maintain an orderly exchange-rate trajectory.
August 5, 2026
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Customs anti-smuggling enforcement targets gold concealed as silver-coated armlets following passenger profiling and personal search at airport.
Customs officers intercepted two passengers arriving from Istanbul after Advance Passenger Information System profiling and their activation of the Door Frame Metal Detector. A personal search recovered approximately one kilogram of gold, silver-coated and concealed as traditional armlets worn on the upper arms. The gold was seized under the Customs Act, a smuggling case was registered, and investigation was initiated into the source and any wider smuggling network.
August 5, 2026
Show AI Summary
Closing auction price discovery for eligible derivatives shares begins as monetary policy retains the repo rate and neutral stance.
The Reserve Bank retained the repo rate with a neutral stance amid uncertainty over energy prices and supply disruptions. Stock exchanges introduced the Closing Auction Session in the equity cash segment for eligible shares with futures and options contracts. This auction-based mechanism determines closing prices of eligible stocks and aims to make price discovery more transparent and robust.
August 5, 2026
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Services-sector growth slowed as weaker demand, competition and postponed orders moderated business activity, while employment improved modestly.
Services-sector growth slowed as domestic and export orders moderated amid weaker demand, competitive pressures, softer market conditions and postponed orders. Output continued to expand, but at its weakest pace in more than four years. Employment growth improved modestly, while input costs rose and firms increased selling prices. Business confidence remained positive but declined, and the composite output indicator weakened due principally to the sharp slowdown in services activity.
August 5, 2026
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Interim bail conditions require residence outside the state and trial attendance in alleged manpower commission corruption proceedings.
Interim bail was granted to Anwar Dhebar in a matter involving alleged corruption and an illegal commission mechanism linked to a state marketing corporation. Conditions require him to remain outside Chhattisgarh, attend the trial court, and provide his residential address. The allegations concern manpower supply agencies allegedly being compelled to pay commissions for clearance of legitimate bills, with proceeds routed through intermediaries. The case was registered under the Indian Penal Code and the Prevention of Corruption Act.
August 5, 2026
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Tax certainty measures revise fund-management safe harbours, electronic-payment charges, sectoral exemptions, business-trust treatment, and excess expenditure appropriation.
The Taxation and Other Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2026 proposes to replace the Income-tax (Amendment) Ordinance, 2026 and amend payment-system and tax laws. It would prohibit charges on notified electronic payments, revise safe-harbour conditions for eligible investment funds and fund managers, and expand tax exemptions for Government securities, qualifying rough-diamond sales and bonded-warehouse component storage. It also modifies exemptions concerning electronic-goods contract manufacturing, data centres and business-trust dividends, while imposing a differentiated surcharge on qualifying special purpose vehicles. A separately included appropriation bill authorises excess expenditure from the Consolidated Fund of India.
August 5, 2026
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Growth and inflation projections reflect resilient domestic activity while energy volatility, supply disruptions, and food prices sustain inflation risks.
Monetary policy projections for fiscal 2026-27 revise real GDP growth upward to 6.7 per cent and Consumer Price Index inflation downward to 5 per cent. Domestic activity is described as resilient amid global uncertainty, but inflationary risks persist from rainfall disruption, energy-price volatility, supply-chain uncertainty, and second-round effects of higher food, fuel and input costs. Core inflation is projected at 4.3 per cent for the fiscal year.
August 5, 2026
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Industry collaboration strengthens MSME competitiveness through shared resources, market linkages, capability building and inclusive support for women entrepreneurs.
MSME development is linked to collaboration, knowledge-sharing, institutional support and capability building. Industry associations can provide networking, policy advocacy, business intelligence, skills programmes, shared infrastructure and market linkages, while collective procurement, shared logistics, digital commerce and export readiness may improve competitiveness. Women-led enterprises benefit from market-oriented capability development, mentorship, continuous learning, professional networks, capacity-building programmes and institutional support. The Development of Industry Associations initiative is intended to connect associations and facilitate the sharing of best practices.
August 5, 2026
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Monetary policy rate maintenance continues under a neutral stance amid energy disruption, inflation concerns and sustained currency depreciation.
Monetary policy rate maintenance was continued with the repo rate retained at 5.25 per cent under a neutral stance amid uncertainty over energy prices and supply disruptions associated with the West Asia crisis. The growth forecast was marginally increased and the inflation projection reduced. Sustained rupee depreciation against the dollar was attributed to costly oil, capital outflows, widening trade deficits and a strong US dollar.

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Inaugural Address by Shri Shaktikanta Das, Governor at the 18th Statistics Day Conference organised by the Department of Statistics and Information Management, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai, June 28, 2024

June 28, 2024

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I am happy to inaugurate the eighteenth Statistics Day Conference of the Reserve Bank. This annual event provides us with an opportunity to reflect on the current and evolving state of statistical system. It also helps us to take stock of the refinements in application of statistical methods and technologies in the realm of public policy.

2. The use of statistics has been ever growing as a preferred tool for drawing inferences in diverse fields. The discipline has moved beyond collection of facts to focusing more on interpretation and drawing inferences, taking into account the level of uncertainty. This shift has allowed statistics to become an integral part of other major disciplines. The surge in computing power is being increasingly harnessed in combination with statistical methods to improve efficiency in decision making and enrich end-user experience in various fields of human knowledge.

3. The celebration of the Statistics Day in India coincides with the birth anniversary of Professor Prasanta Chandra Mahalanobis. His contributions in laying the foundations of modern day official statistics in India have been pioneering. Inspired by his work, Indian statisticians are making their presence felt - both domestically and globally in traditional as well as in newer applications of statistics.

4. Against this backdrop, let me highlight the areas in which the Reserve Bank’s cutting edge information management is contributing to the formulation of public policies and the overall economic development in India. One year ago, we launched our next generation data warehouse, i.e., the Centralised Information Management System (CIMS) at the Statistics Day Conference. Several new features1 were introduced in the new system2. Scheduled commercial banks (SCBs), urban co-operative banks (UCBs) and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) have already been onboarded for reporting on the new portal. The Reserve Bank has provided training to over 15,000 personnel from regulated entities. Many one-to-one handholding sessions have also been organised. I would like to congratulate the Department of Statistics and Information Management in the Reserve Bank for undertaking these initiatives. All regular statistical publications are now generated from the CIMS. Going forward, we intend to augment and refine the CIMS further as an integral part of our mission to constantly improve the quality of statistics. The new CIMS is also facilitating research on the Indian economy, minimising reporting burden, exploiting the technological advances and improving the experience of both data providers and users. In this endeavour, we have also benefitted from guidance by external experts. Our aspirational goal is to position information as a public good.

5. Looking ahead, the year 2025 has a special significance for compilation of official statistics the world over. Global efforts are expected to culminate in new global standards3 for compilation of macroeconomic statistics, especially for national accounts and balance of payments. Our team in the Reserve Bank is closely tracking these developments.

6. We are also making efforts to harness the availability of huge computing power and growing digital footprints to analyse measures of expectations, sentiment indicators and policy credibility measures from alternative data sources. Let me add that the use of alternative and unconventional data sources proved to be invaluable during the most severe phases of the COVID-19 related lockdowns and restrictions. In fact, their utility extends beyond periods of crisis. Data management systems need to keep pace with the use of unconventional data sources as policy inputs. While doing so, we have to be mindful of the importance of eliminating noise and capturing the signals from high frequency indicators. We are conscious that we are moving from an era of data scarcity to data abundance. The volume of digital data stored4 as well as the storage capacity5 are growing at an exponential pace, bringing forth new challenges along with new opportunities.

7. The focus now is naturally on enhancing capacity in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques and analysing unstructured textual data. While doing so, ethical considerations need to be addressed and biases in algorithms need to be eliminated. In the Reserve Bank, we have ventured into AI/ML analytics in multiple areas. Under the Reserve Bank’s aspirational goals for RBI@100, we aim to develop cutting edge systems for high frequency and real-time data monitoring and analysis.

8. As Professor C.R.Rao, the legendary statistician, and close associate of Professor Mahalanobis had said: “Statistics is the science of learning from data. Today is the age of data revolution.”6 I am sure that our statisticians in the Reserve Bank will continue to strive for excellence and meet the emerging information and research needs of our economy in its journey towards even higher levels of development.

I wish all success for today’s deliberations.

Thank you.

---

1 It incorporates various new age features like a data lake and integrated analytics with much higher processing speeds and scalability. Data lake is envisioned as a part of CIMS, which is more flexible than usual database systems, in terms of data fetching from multiple systems (inside and outside RBI), data storage (both structured and unstructured information) and data processing (standard and dynamic query based reports).

2 The innovations implemented in the CIMS include: (a) to improve exchange of data and metadata, a Statistical Data and Metadata eXchange (SDMX) based repository has been implemented, which consists of the SDMX elements and related artefacts, undertakes data standardisation by aligning the elements with business concepts, and facilitates visualisation at desired level of granularity by drilling down elements; (b) a novel SDMX data conversion tool has been developed and implemented to generate SDMX time series from periodic data submitted by regulated entities; (c) all Regtech and Suptech data collection features have been implemented through creation of SDMX artefacts / metadata in server-to-server data transmission and data governance; (d) an advanced analytical platform to perform statistical analysis connecting cross domain data has been implemented with integrated programming interface; (e) an SDMX data query functionality provides interactive metadata driven search and data visualisation analytical platform for the general public; (f) power user capability known as common data platform has been implemented; and (g) functionality of regular information submission has been enriched with dashboards for regulated entities, system driven alerts and data submission monitoring utilities.

3 The new standards for national accounts and balance of payments statistics, coordinated by the United Nation's Intersecretariat Working Group on National Accounts (ISWGNA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics (BOPCOM), respectively aim to meet boarder policy analysis and monitoring needs by integrating elements of social wellbeing and environmental sustainability; incorporating globalisation and innovation in real and financial sector operations; incorporating digital transformation; tracking climate change; steadiness between stock and flows; more detailed breakdowns; consistency with other standards; and developing new data sources and methods.

4 Moore's law

5 Kryder's law

6 Rao, B.L.S. Prakasa (2020). ‘C.R.Rao: A Life in Statistics’, Bhāvanā - The Mathematics Magazine.

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