India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in September 2021* are estimated to be USD 54.06 Billion, exhibiting a positive growth of 21.44 per cent over the same period last year and a positive growth of 26.03 per cent over September 2019. Overall imports in September 2021* are estimated to be USD 68.49Billion, exhibiting a positive growth of 70.00 per cent over the same period last year and a positive growth of 44.11 per cent over September 2019.

* Note: The latest data for services sector released by RBI is for August 2021. The data for September 2021 is an estimation, which will be revised based on RBI’s subsequent release. (ii) Data for2019,2020 and April to June 2021 are revised on pro-rata basis using quarterly balance of payments data.

India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in April-September 2021* are estimated to be USD 312.47Billion, exhibiting a positive growth of 40.52per cent over the same period last year and a positive growth of 18.30per cent over April-September 2019. Overall imports in April-September 2021* are estimated to be USD 341.10Billion, exhibiting a positive growth of 64.91per cent over the same period last year and a positive growth of 9.31per cent over April-September 2019.

 * Note: The latest data for services sector released by RBI is for August 2021. The data for September 2021 is an estimation, which will be revised based on RBI’s subsequent release. (ii) Data for 2019, 2020 and April to June 2021 are revised on pro-rata basis using quarterly balance of payments data.

I. MERCHANDISE TRADE

EXPORTS (including re-exports)

Exports in September 2021 were USD 33.79 Billion, as compared to USD 27.56 Billion in September 2020, exhibiting a positive growth of 22.63 per cent. In Rupee terms, exports were ₹ 2,48,605.74 Crore in September 2021, as compared to ₹ 2,02,508.54 Crore in September 2020, registering a positive growth of 22.76 per cent. As compared to September 2019, exports in September 2021 exhibited a positive growth of 29.86 per cent in Dollar terms and 33.92per cent in Rupee terms.

The commodities/commodity groups which have recorded positive growth during September 2021 vis-à-vis September 2020 areCoffee (62.55%), Cashew (49.4%), Petroleum products (47.91%), Cotton yarn/fabs./made-ups, handloom products etc. (40.5%), Engineering goods (36.83%), Organic & inorganic chemicals (29.65%), Man-made yarn/fabs./made-ups etc. (26.49%), Electronic goods (26.33%), Other cereals  (21.18%), Fruits & vegetables (21.13%), Gems & jewellery (19.71%), Plastic & Linoleum (18.61%), Jute mfg. including floor covering (16.04%), Marine products (12.67%), RMG of all textiles (9.24%), Mica, Coal & other ores, minerals including processed minerals (8.82%), Leather & leather products (7.41%), Cereal preparations & miscellaneous processed items (5.64%), Rice (5.62%), Carpet (4.42%), Tea (3.2%) and Handicrafts excl. handmade Carpet (2.29%).

The commodities/commodity groups which have recorded negative growth during September 2021 vis-à-vis September 2020 are Iron ore (-72.77%), Oil meals (-39.05%), Oil seeds (-26.77%), Tobacco (-16.31%), Ceramic products & glassware (-14.15%), Spices (-13.56%), Meat, dairy & poultry products (-10.77%) and Drugs & pharmaceuticals (-8.45%).

Cumulative value of exports for the period April-September 2021 was USD 197.89 Billion (₹ 14,63,048.24Crore) as against USD 125.62 Billion (₹ 9,41,358.09 Crore) during the period April-September 2020, registering a positive growth of 57.53 per cent in Dollar terms (positive growth of 55.42 per cent in Rupee terms). As compared to April-September 2019, exports in April-September 2021 exhibited a positive growth of 24.33 per cent in Dollar terms and 31.35 per cent in Rupee terms.

Non-petroleum and Non-Gems and Jewellery exports in September 2021 were USD 25.34 Billion, as compared to USD 21.33 Billion in September 2020, registering a positive growth of 18.82 per cent. As compared to September 2019, Non-petroleum and Non-Gems and Jewellery exports in September 2021registered a positive growth of 33.39 per cent. Non-petroleum and Non-Gems and Jewellery exports in April-September 2021 were USD 149.89 Billion, as compared to USD 104.81 Billion for the corresponding period in 2020-21, which is an increase of 43.02 per cent. As compared to April-September 2019, Non-petroleum and Non-Gems and Jewellery exports in April-September 2021 registered a positive growth of 26.34 per cent.

IMPORTS

Imports in September 2021 were USD 56.39 Billion (₹ 4,14,812.41 Crore), which is an increase of 84.77 per cent in Dollar terms and 84.97 per cent in Rupee terms over imports of USD 30.52 Billion (₹ 2,24,254.02 Crore) in September 2020. Imports in September 2021 have registered a positive growth of49.59 per cent in Dollar terms and 54.27 per cent in Rupee terms in comparison to September 2019. Cumulative value of imports for the period April-September 2021 was USD 276.02 Billion (₹ 20,40,890.34 Crore), as against USD 151.94 Billion (₹ 11,39,032.05 Crore) during the period April-September 2020, registering a positive growth of 81.67 per cent in Dollar terms and a positive growth of 79.18 per cent in Rupee terms. Imports in April-September 2021 have registered a positive growth of 11.26 per cent in Dollar terms and positive growth of 17.59 per cent in Rupee terms in comparison to April-September 2019.

Major commodity group of import showing negative growth in September2021 over the corresponding month of last year is:

Project Goods (-47.30%)

CRUDE OIL AND NON-OIL IMPORTS:

Oil imports in September 2021 were USD 17.44Billion (₹ 1,28,268.20 Crore), which was 199.27 percent higher in Dollar terms (199.60 percent higher in Rupee terms), compared to USD 5.83 Billion (₹ 42,812.53 Crore) in September 2020. As compared to September 2019, oil imports in September 2021 were 91.90 percent higher in Dollar terms and 97.90per cent higher in Rupee terms. Oil imports in April-September 2021 were USD 72.99 Billion (₹ 5,39,582.43 Crore) which was 127.99 per cent higher in Dollar terms (124.67 percent higher in Rupee terms) compared to USD 32.01 Billion (₹ 2,40,166.21 Crore), over the same period last year. As compared to April-September 2019, oil imports in April-September 2021 were 11.95 percent higher in Dollar terms and 18.30per cent higher in Rupee terms.

In this connection it is mentioned that the global Brent price ($/bbl) has increased by 81.55% in September 2021 vis-à-vis September 2020 as per data available from World Bank.

Non-oil imports in September 2021 were estimated at USD 38.95 Billion (₹ 2,86,544.21 Crore) which was 57.75 percent higher in Dollar terms (57.93 percent higher in Rupee terms), compared to USD 24.69 Billion (₹ 1,81,441.49 Crore) in September 2020. As compared to September 2019, Non-oil imports in September 2021, were 36.16per cent higher in Dollar terms and 40.41 per cent higher in Rupee terms. Non-oil imports in April-September 2021 were USD 203.03 Billion (₹ 15,01,307.91 Crore) which was 69.30 per cent higher in Dollar terms (67.02 percent higher in Rupee terms), compared to USD 119.92 Billion (₹ 8,98,865.84 Crore) in April-September 2020. As compared to April-September 2019, Non-oil imports in April-September 2021 were 11.02 per cent higher in Dollar terms and 17.34 per cent higher in Rupee terms.

Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports were USD 33.84Billion in September 2021, recording a positive growth of 40.45per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports of USD 24.09Billion in September 2020. Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports in September 2021 recorded a positive growth of 23.79 per cent over September 2019. Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports were USD 179.07Billion in April-September 2021, recording a positive growth of 58.26per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports of USD 113.15Billion in April-September 2020. Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports in April-September 2021 recorded a positive growth of 7.18 per cent over April-September 2019.

II. TRADE IN SERVICES

EXPORTS (Receipts)

As per the latest press release by RBI dated 1^stOctober 2021, exports in August 2021 were USD 19.57 Billion (₹ 1,45,208.94Crore) registering a positive growth of 21.36 per cent in Dollar terms, vis-à-vis August2020. The estimated value of services export for September2021* is USD 20.26 Billion, exhibiting a positive growth of 19.50 per cent vis-a-visSeptember 2020 (USD 16.96 Billion) and a positive growth of 20.13 per cent vis-à-vis September 2019 (USD 16.87 Billion).

IMPORTS (Payments)

As per the latest press release by RBI dated 1^stOctober2021, imports in August 2021were USD 11.52Billion (₹ 85,460.66 Crore) registering a positive growth of 24.52 per cent in Dollar terms, vis-à-vis August 2020. The estimated value of services import for September2021* is USD 12.10 Billion exhibiting a positive growth of 23.86 per cent vis-à-vis September 2020 (USD 9.77 Billion) and a positive growth of23.09 per cent vis-à-vis September 2019 (USD 9.83 Billion).

III.TRADE BALANCE

MERCHANDISE: The trade balance for September2021 was estimated at USD (-) 22.59Billion as against USD(-)2.96 Billion inSeptember2020, which is a decline of (-)663.48 percent. As compared to September 2019 (USD (-)11.67 Billion), trade balance in September 2021 exhibited a negative growth of(-) 93.60 per cent.    

SERVICES: As per RBI’s Press Release dated 1^stOctober2021, the trade balance in Services (i.e. Net Services export) for August 2021is USD8.05 Billion. The estimated trade balance in September 2021* is USD8.16 Billion, which is an increase of 13.58 per cent over September2020 (USD 7.19 Billion) and an increase of15.98 per cent over September2019 (USD 7.04 Billion).

OVERALL TRADE BALANCE: Taking merchandise and services together, overall trade balance for September 2021* is estimated atUSD (-)14.43 Billion as compared to USD4.23 Billion in September 2020, a decline of (-)441.40 per cent. In comparison to September 2019(USD (-)4.63 Billion), trade balance in September 2021 exhibited a negative growth of(-) 211.51 per cent.

*Note: The latest data for services sector released by RBI is for August 2021. The data for September 2021 is an estimation, which will be revised based on RBI’s subsequent release. (ii) Data for 2019, 2020 and April to June 2021 are revised on pro-rata basis using quarterly balance of payments data.

MERCHANDISE TRADE

SERVICES TRADE

*Link for the quick Estimates

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DJN/MS/PK