The Indian Economy in an Ever More Volatile and Complex World - Special Address by Dr. Poonam Gupta, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India at the 13t...
Merchant discount rate on UPI merchant payments may be treated as a taxable payment settlement service with input credit availability. GST treatment of MDR charged on UPI merchant payments above Rs 2,000 is to be considered by the GST Council. The MDR framework imposes a merchant-borne charge for payment processing and settlement. As these activities are services, MDR may attract GST at 18 per cent, subject to the Council's view. Merchants paying GST on MDR may claim input tax credit, potentially reducing their net tax burden.
Fiscal responsibility limits frame cautions on new projects as budgetary discipline rather than financial crisis. Finance-department advice treats fiscal indicators as grounds for restraint in approving additional expenditure rather than as evidence that funds are unavailable. Funding new projects may be difficult until additional resources are mobilised or allocations already approved are reallocated. Project proposals lacking budgetary provision or earmarked funding may create cash-flow pressures and fiscal-management challenges, requiring deferment until resources are finalised.
Corporate document forgery allegations trigger investigation into unauthorised insolvency consortium participation and disputed share transfers. An FIR concerns alleged cheating, forgery, criminal conspiracy, corporate-document misuse, and unauthorised financial liabilities arising from participation in a corporate insolvency resolution process. Allegations include entering a consortium arrangement without the Parekh Group's knowledge or authorisation, reliance on a fabricated and unapproved board resolution, and unauthorised transfer of shares to a group-controlled entity. Investigation covers disputed-record authenticity, alleged digital-signature misuse, and financial transaction trails.
Energy security shapes continued Russian crude sourcing as alternative suppliers replace shortfalls amid potential sanctions-related restrictions. Russian crude imports are operating near 1.8 million barrels daily in September, with refinery maintenance, stronger Chinese buying, and disruptions to Russian export infrastructure constraining availability. Middle Eastern supply, especially from Iraq and Saudi Arabia, has offset reduced Russian volumes. Potential tougher restrictions on countries purchasing Russian oil could complicate procurement, but energy security and tight physical oil markets make a significant near-term reduction in Russian crude purchases unlikely. Replacement remains technically possible but may raise procurement costs and competition for medium-grade crude.
Direct tax payment gateway integration enables nationwide payments through digital options, branch channels, and customers' respective internet-banking services. IDFC FIRST Bank's payment-gateway integration for Central Board of Direct Taxes collections enables Direct Tax payments through UPI, credit cards, debit cards, Retail and Corporate Internet Banking, and branch-based cheque, demand draft, or cash payments. Customers of other banks may use their own internet-banking facilities through the gateway. Taxpayers create a challan on the Income Tax e-Filing Portal, select Payment Gateway and IDFC FIRST Bank, choose a payment mode, complete payment, and download or print the paid challan. Payment confirmations are also accessible.
Insurance distribution controls target commissions, expenses and loan-linked sales, reshaping bancassurance arrangements and intermediary remuneration structures. IRDAI's consultation proposals for insurance distribution contemplate lower Expenses of Management limits, tighter commission controls, and greater control over loan-linked insurance practices. The prospective framework concerns insurer and intermediary remuneration, distribution expenses, and bancassurance fee structures. Reported concerns centre on potential effects on insurer earnings, intermediary economics, and lending-linked distribution arrangements; the measures are not described as final operative obligations or enforcement action.
Personal loan eligibility and repayment planning: loan variants and digital applications remain subject to assessment, verification, and applicable terms. Eligible customers may seek collateral-free personal loans within stated amount, tenure and interest-rate ranges. Loan amount, interest rate and tenure determine the EMI and total interest payable, while calculator results are estimates rather than final repayment obligations. Eligibility includes nationality, age, employment and credit-score conditions, but approval, final pricing and loan amount remain subject to lender assessment, document verification and applicable terms. Online applications require personal, financial and employment details and KYC verification.
Nidhi company deposits lack insurance protection, requiring verification of government declaration before relying on high-return promises. Each company seeking to function as a Nidhi must file Form NDH-4 for declaration or updated Nidhi status and comply with the Companies Act, 2013 and applicable Nidhi Rules. Nidhi companies may accept deposits and grant loans only to members. Public investors should verify declared Nidhi status rather than rely on unusually high-return promises, agent representations, or informal assurances. Deposits with Nidhi companies are not insured by the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation, and recovery may be difficult where a company fails or fraud occurs.
FCNR(B) liquidity deployment remains within banks' discretion, guided by credit pipelines, asset-liability positions, and prudent underwriting standards. Banks retain full discretion to deploy liquidity mobilised through FCNR(B) deposits, based on their credit pipeline, lending proposals, liquidity outlook and asset-liability position. No sector-specific direction applies to use of these funds. FCNR(B) deposits are fixed-term foreign-currency deposits in which principal and interest are repayable in the same foreign currency, protecting non-resident depositors from direct rupee exchange-rate risk. Continued prudent credit appraisal and underwriting standards are expected.
Compulsory Muslim marriage registration shifts registration to registrars under a statewide procedural framework, with local officials authorised when needed. Compulsory registration of Muslim marriages will operate under the Assam Muslim Marriage Registration (Compulsory) Rules, 2026, framed under the Assam Compulsory Registration of Muslim Marriage and Divorces Act, 2024. Registration will be undertaken by registrars, with panchayat-level officials potentially authorised where application volumes require additional capacity. The framework addresses the registration forum after kazis were barred from registering Muslim marriages.
Macroeconomic resilience supports fiscal consolidation, financial-sector stability, and orderly foreign-exchange management through persistent global and market shocks. Policy management emphasises clear communication, policy certainty, macroeconomic and financial-sector stability, efficient use of buffers, and sustained structural reform. Fiscal prudence is treated as necessary to avoid unsustainable stimulus and preserve long-term stability. External-sector resilience rests on services exports and remittances, while oil and gold shocks and weaker capital inflows have created temporary balance-of-payments pressure. Further improvement is linked to lower oil dependence, export diversification, trade agreements, capital inflows and orderly foreign-exchange market management.
Software export growth strengthens IT ecosystem as campus expansion supports startup activity, infrastructure development, and skilled employment. Software export revenue generated by Technopark reached Rs 17,092 crore in FY 2025-26, reflecting year-on-year growth of approximately 17.3 per cent. Growth is attributed to IT infrastructure, a skilled talent base, and company performance. Technopark also operates as an IT and ITeS hub and startup ecosystem centre, with ongoing campus development intended to expand its position among major IT hubs.
Artificial intelligence centre of excellence partnership advances industry-aligned training, supervised internships, startup mentorship, and applied research collaboration. IIEST Shibpur and Tata Consultancy Services have entered into a Memorandum of Understanding to establish an Artificial Intelligence Centre of Excellence at the Electrical Engineering Department's high-performance computing laboratory. The collaboration supports industry-aligned training, professional certifications, practical projects, supervised internships, startup mentorship, curriculum benchmarking, and applied research in natural language processing, computer vision, image processing, and advanced data analytics.
Money-laundering searches prompt protests over alleged political misuse while operations continue at public development offices and residences. Enforcement Directorate search and survey operations connected with a money-laundering investigation continued at development authority offices and premises linked with housing administration, a realty company, and private residences. AAP workers protested against the searches, alleging political and administrative pressure through central investigative agencies. The party further alleged that the operations could disrupt the development authority's functioning and impede Punjab government welfare schemes.
Money-laundering investigation procedure raises allegations over FIR registration, conflict concerns, and the choice between police, vigilance, or federal inquiry. A police inquiry, rather than a Vigilance inquiry, was directed following an Enforcement Directorate communication seeking registration of an FIR for cognizable offences. It was contended that FIR registration should be dealt with by the police and that governmental or ministerial intervention would raise concerns where a person facing allegations is involved in deciding the investigative course. A transfer to a federal investigative agency was sought on grounds of investigative independence and perceived conflict of interest.
Trade truce extension maintains tariff pauses and export-restriction rollbacks while negotiations continue on broader economic commitments. United States-China trade relations may remain governed by the Busan Agreement through January 10 under a stated two-month extension, though Chinese official confirmation is pending. The arrangement maintains pauses on elevated tariffs and prior rollbacks of restrictions affecting critical minerals and high-technology exports. Negotiations may produce a broader economic package or further continuation of existing terms, while implementation of agreed commitments is under review. The parties have also proposed reciprocal alerts on AI-related hacking incidents involving national-security concerns.
Gold Smuggling Enforcement: Concealed foreign-origin gold recovered from vehicles and a traveller, with arrests under customs law. Gold-smuggling enforcement involved the seizure of approximately 21 kg of foreign-origin gold in two operations and the arrest of five persons under the Customs Act, 1962. Gold bars were recovered from sophisticated vehicle-chassis cavities, while gold bars and cut pieces were recovered from a passenger's specially designed cotton waist belt. The operations concerned suspected cross-border gold movement and targeted organised smuggling networks using sophisticated concealment methods.
Cross-border gold smuggling enforcement resulted in Customs Act seizures after coordinated recovery of foreign-origin gold from border locations and a passenger. Cross-border smuggling of foreign-origin gold through the Bangladesh route led to coordinated recoveries and seizures under the Customs Act, 1962. Gold recovered near the India-Bangladesh border was taken over for customs proceedings, including a seizure under Section 110. Foreign-origin gold concealed by a train passenger was also recovered and seized, with investigation indicating its smuggling from Bangladesh.
BRICS tax cooperation creates standing platforms for international taxation, revenue statistics, professional capacity building and peer learning. India-led BRICS tax cooperation established standing Working Groups on International Taxation and Transfer Pricing and Revenue Statistics, providing institutional platforms extending beyond individual Chairships. It also institutionalised an annual Young Tax Professionals Capacity Building Programme, launched the BRICS Tax Cross-Learning Lab for peer learning on client-centric administration and human-resources practices, and approved the Terms of Reference for the BRICS Tax Support Network.
Wildlife trafficking enforcement applies protected-species safeguards to seized Tokay Geckos and enables further statutory action against suspected illegal trade. Wildlife-trafficking enforcement led to interception of two persons and seizure of 86 live Tokay Geckos under the Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972. Tokay Geckos receive Schedule I protection under that legislation and are listed in Appendix II of CITES, regulating international trade. The persons and recovered geckos were transferred to the Mariani Range Forest Office for further action.
Addressing a press conference here today, Shri Anand Sharma, Union Minister of Commerce & Industry, has stated that quick estimates of exports during October, 2009 indicates significant signs of stabilization and improvement in the Indian exports compared to decline of close to 39% in May 200. "The decline in exports in October 2009 was only 6.6% in Dollar terms ($13.19 Billion in October 2009 vis-à-vis $ 14.13 Billion in October, 2008). The stablisation in the exports needs to be viewed in the context of projections of IMF of 11.9% decline in world trade volume during the year 2009 coupled with 36.6% decline in commodity prices of oil, and 20.3% decline in non-fuel commodity prices during 2009", the Minister added.
An analysis of the sectoral performance indicates that the following sectors have continued to do well with no effect of global slowdown (with increase in exports of US$ terms during April-October, 2009 as compared to corresponding period of previous year): Man-made yarn / fabric / made ups (+1.2%).; Tobacco(+20.5%); Fruits and Vegetables (+5.7%)
Further analysis shows that some export commodities which were significantly impacted by global slowdown, have now shown a turnaround in exports during October, 2009 (with positive export in October, 2009 as compared to October 2008): Plastic and Linoleum [+13.2% in Oct 09; (-) 18.6% in Apr-Oct 09]; Drugs and Pharmaceuticals [+9.3% in Oct 09; (-) 9% in Apr-Oct 09]; Marine Products[+3.7% in Oct 09; (-) 1.1% in Apr-Oct 09]; Iron ore [+250% in Oct 09; (-) 19.9% in Apr-Oct 09]; Spices [+18.2% in Oct 09; (-) 22.1% in Apr-Oct 09]; Oil meal [+19.8% in Oct 09; (-) 37.1% in Apr-Oct 09]; Cashew [+20.6% in Oct 09; (-) 21.9% in Apr-Oct 09]; Petroleum products [+7.8% in Oct 09; (-) 37.9% in Apr-Oct 09]
Some export commodities which were significantly impacted by global slowdown have shown lower rate of decline in October, 2009 as compared to earlier months: Cotton yarn / fabrics / made ups [(-)9.7% in Oct 09; (-) 28.7% in Apr-Oct 09]; Handicrafts [(-) 8.5% in Oct, 09; (-) 26.6% in Apr-Oct 09]; Basic chemicals (other than pharmaceuticals) [(-) 13% in Apr, 09; (-) 25% in Apr-Oct 09]; Gems and Jewellery [(-) 16.8% in Oct, 09; (-) 26.7% in Apr-Oct 09]; Leather and Leather manufactures [(-) 13.8% in Oct, 09; (-) 25.1% in Apr-Oct 09]; Engineering goods [(-) 14.7% in Oct, 09; (-) 30.1% in Apr-Oct 09]; Electronic goods [(-) 9.9% in Oct, 09; (-) 28.9% in Apr-Oct 09]; Tea [(-) 7% in Oct, 09; (-) 33.9% in Apr-Oct 09]
There are, however, some sectors which still continue to show significant decline in exports: Jute manufacturing including floor covering [(-)38.9% in Apr-Oct 09]; Carpets [(-)28.6% in Apr-Oct 09]; Coal and other ores including processed minerals [(-)25.3% in Apr-Oct 09]
Software exports have not shown any decline during April - October, 2009.
Overall reduction in the rate of decline of export growth in the 7 months of the current financial year, tend to indicate that the different support measures of Government, announced during the Budget and the Foreign Trade Policy, do appear to have contributed significantly in arresting the rate of decline, particularly, for labour intensive sectors.
Shri Sharma said that despite the current economic downturn, FDI inflows during April-September, 2009 were US $ 15.3 billion, which is comparable to US $ 17.2 billion received during the corresponding period of the financial year. Total FDI into India since the onset of the liberalisation process (August, 1991-September, 2009) is nearly US $ 121.85 billion.
The Minister underlined that various reports continue to place India as a highly attractive destination for investments and added that the UNCTAD World Investment Report (WIR) 2009, in its analysis of the global trends and sustained growth of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, has reported India as the third most attractive location for FDI for 2009-2011. According to the WIR 2009 report, the top five most attractive locations for FDI for 2009-11 are China, United States, India, Brazil and the Russian Federation. India continues to attract investors in the high value-added services industries like financial services and information technology. The top position is occupied by China, while the US is the fourth in the list. The report predicts India to be on the cusp of FDI take off, in view of the Government maintaining focus on reforms, overcoming narrow business interests, de-bottlenecking infrastructure, logistics and regulatory barriers.
As regards industrial growth, the Minister informed that the impact of the stimulus packages announced by the Government can be seen in the revival of growth of the industry, particularly, the manufacturing sector and added that the industrial growth measured by Index of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded a robust growth of 9.1 percent in September 2009. Industrial recovery is generally widespread encompassing most of the sectors. He further highlighted: "The consumer durables (Passenger cars, Televisions, Refrigerators, Air conditioners), registered a double digit growth for the sixth consecutive month at 22.2 per cent in September, 2009 compared to 14.7 per cent in September, 2009. Industry groups such as basic chemicals & chemical products (20.1 percent), machinery & equipment (16.5 per cent ) and rubber, plastic, petroleum and coal products (10.1 percent) recorded a double digit growth in September, 2009."
October 2009 exports showed a moderated decline of 6.6% year on year, with certain sectors sustaining growth and several previously depressed commodities recording positive month on month turnaround. Labour intensive and manufacturing categories exhibited reduced contraction rates, while software exports showed no decline. The release attributes improvement to government Budget and Foreign Trade Policy support measures. Concurrently, FDI inflows for April-September 2009 were comparable to the prior year period, international reports rank India as an attractive FDI location, and industrial production registered robust recovery in September 2009.
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