China's first-quarter GDP growth reflects stronger supply, improved demand and resilience despite external geopolitical and trade pressures.
China's economy recorded five per cent growth in the first quarter, with GDP reaching 33.4 trillion yuan and growth accelerating from the previous quarter despite external fallout from the US-Israel war and wider geopolitical and trade uncertainties. The National Bureau of Statistics described the opening of the 15th Five-Year Plan period as a strong start, noting improved production and supply, firmer market demand, generally stable employment, moderately higher prices and continued progress in high-quality development.

Naval blockade enforcement against Iranian ports creates maritime uncertainty, inspection risks, and exceptions for humanitarian shipments.
US naval blockade of Iranian coastal areas and ports has been fully implemented, extending beyond the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It applies to vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas, while non-Iran-bound vessels retain freedom of navigation. Humanitarian shipments including food and medical supplies essential for civilian survival are permitted subject to inspection, and neutral ships may pass but remain liable to inspection. The blockade has created uncertainty because enforcement may occur after vessels clear the strait, and AIS manipulation further complicates maritime monitoring.

Electronics import dependence deepens as imports rise sharply and exports remain far below import levels.
Electronics imports crossed the USD 100 billion mark in 2025-26, rising to USD 116.17 billion from USD 98.65 billion in the preceding fiscal year. Electronics exports also increased to USD 48.0 billion, supported by smartphone shipments, but remained well below imports. The trade pattern was noted as indicating continued dependence on imported semiconductors, components and electronic equipment despite the manufacturing push.

Trade uncertainty and Middle East disruption weigh on exports as imports fall and the trade deficit narrows.
Goods exports declined in March because of trade uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, with shipments to West Asia and the Middle East contracting sharply. Imports also fell, led by lower crude oil and gold shipments, narrowing the trade deficit to a nine-month low. For the full fiscal year, exports reached an all-time high, imports rose, and the trade deficit widened. Services exports stayed robust, while China emerged as India's largest trading partner.

China becomes India's largest trading partner as bilateral trade expands and the trade deficit widens sharply.
China emerged as India's largest trading partner in 2025-26, displacing the US after four consecutive years of US leadership. Bilateral trade with China rose to USD 151.1 billion, driven by higher exports and imports, and India's trade deficit with China widened to USD 112.16 billion. Trade with the US remained significant, but export growth was modest and imports increased more sharply, reducing India's trade surplus.

Trade disruption and export slowdown in India deepened as West Asia conflict affected shipping and import flows.
India's merchandise exports declined sharply in March amid the West Asia crisis, while imports also fell, leading to a narrower trade deficit. The fall in outbound shipments was linked to disruption in international shipping routes, higher freight and insurance costs, and reduced trade with the Middle East, particularly in goods such as gems and jewellery, rice, engineering goods, petroleum products and electronic items. Lower crude oil and gold imports also contributed to the reduced deficit.

Trade pact recalibration drives India-US negotiations as tariff changes and Section 301 probes reshape the talks.
India and the United States are resuming chief-negotiator level talks on the proposed bilateral trade pact to finalise the legal agreement and adjust it to changes in the US tariff environment. The interim understanding reached in February now requires recalibration because the tariff architecture has changed, and the discussions will also cover recent Section 301 investigations and India's response to them.

India's trade estimates show stronger services exports, modest merchandise growth, and a wider overall trade deficit for FY 2025-26.
India's total exports of merchandise and services for FY 2025-26 are estimated to have grown, with merchandise exports showing only marginal expansion while services exports recorded stronger growth. Total imports also increased, leaving a wider overall trade deficit for the year compared with FY 2024-25. Merchandise trade data shows modest export growth alongside a sharper rise in imports, while services trade remained a major support area with an improved surplus.

Merchandise exports and imports fall amid West Asia disruptions, while annual goods and services trade still shows growth.
Merchandise exports and imports declined in March amid disruptions to major trade routes linked to the West Asia conflict, while the month's trade deficit widened. Annual trade data showed growth in goods and services exports, supported by services exports, even as trade with the Middle East fell sharply because of the conflict. The report also notes that the India-UK free trade agreement may come into force in the following month.

Trade talks and Section 301 probes shape India-US negotiations as tariff changes delay the interim agreement.
An Indian official delegation is scheduled to visit Washington for trade talks with United States authorities amid efforts to finalise the legal text of an interim bilateral trade agreement. The talks come after changes in the United States tariff architecture following a Supreme Court ruling and the postponement of earlier negotiations. The visit also coincides with two United States Section 301 investigations, including probes concerning forced-labour import bans and industrial practices affecting commerce.

Solar mounting system optimisation may improve yield and reduce project cost in utility-scale solar developments.
Independent techno-economic assessment of fixed-tilt and horizontal single-axis tracker systems indicates that tracker-based configurations may deliver materially higher specific yield and lower Levelized Cost of Energy under the study's modelling assumptions. The analysis across Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh compares energy yield and CUF under CUF-matched and constant-DC scenarios, highlighting the importance of site-specific evaluation in mounting system selection for utility-scale solar projects.

Soybean meal exports slump as West Asia disruption and high domestic prices weigh on India's trade performance.
India's soybean meal exports declined sharply in March because of persistently higher domestic prices and disruption in West Asia trade routes. Export volumes fell to about 60,000 tonnes from 1.62 lakh tonnes in the corresponding prior year month, with supply to Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman reported as affected by the regional conflict. Domestic consumption remained strong, rising to six lakh tonnes from five lakh tonnes a year earlier, supported by the animal feed industry.

Global growth outlook weakens as the Iran war lifts energy prices and inflation pressures across economies.
Global growth prospects have been revised downward after the Iran war disrupted economic momentum, with higher oil and gas prices expected to weigh on activity and inflation. The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast and raised its inflation outlook, noting that the conflict has stalled earlier resilience in the world economy and that downside risks remain elevated if energy shocks persist or spill into next year. The revised outlook reflects uneven regional effects, with energy-importing and heavily indebted poorer economies facing sharper pressure, while energy exporters may benefit from higher prices.

Russian crude imports surge as India's state refiners resume purchases after sanctions waiver and EU ban scrutiny intensifies.
India's crude oil imports from Russia more than tripled in March 2026, with Russian crude accounting for the overwhelming share of the country's Russian hydrocarbon purchases and the increase driven by higher volumes and rising prices. The surge followed a one-month sanctions waiver on Russian oil, after which state-owned refiners resumed purchases and recorded the sharpest month-on-month increase, while private refiners also increased imports but to a lesser extent. The article also notes downstream trade flows involving refineries processing Russian crude and shipments of oil products into sanctioning markets despite the European Union ban.

Oil prices fall as hopes rise for renewed US-Iran talks and easing Strait of Hormuz disruption risks.
Global equity markets advanced and oil prices declined amid hopes of renewed US-Iran talks on de-escalation of the Iran war, following inconclusive ceasefire discussions and reports that a second round of talks may be considered before a temporary ceasefire expires. The market move reflected investor expectations that continued diplomatic engagement could ease disruption risks linked to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, where supply concerns had earlier pushed crude higher.

Luxury watch market faces uncertainty as war, tariffs, and weaker demand pressure exports and sales.
The luxury watch industry faces renewed uncertainty as war in the Persian Gulf, higher energy costs, logistics disruptions, and weaker consumer confidence affect demand and trade conditions. Geneva's Watches and Wonders fair opens amid market contraction, with pressure on exports and sales in Gulf markets, including reduced tourist traffic in key retail hubs. Swiss-made watches continue to dominate the global luxury watch market, while non-Swiss competitors are emerging as challengers.

West Asia military escalation threatens poverty, food security, and livelihoods in India through energy, trade, and remittance shocks.
West Asia military escalation is projected to intensify poverty, food insecurity, and human development losses across Asia and the Pacific by raising fuel, freight, and input costs and weakening livelihoods. The report estimates a rise in poverty incidence in India, alongside a modest loss of Human Development Index progress, and identifies significant exposure through West Asian energy, fertiliser, trade, remittance, and labour-market linkages. It also warns that MSMEs, informal workers, and sectors dependent on imported inputs may face higher costs, supply disruptions, and employment shocks.

Export growth slowdown reflects uncertainty from the Iran war and weaker global demand for Chinese goods.
China's export growth slowed sharply in March, with exports rising 2.5 per cent year-on-year after much faster growth in the previous two months. The weaker performance was reported alongside concerns that the Iran war may increase uncertainty for energy prices and global demand, potentially affecting Chinese exports. Imports rose strongly in March, and technology-related shipments, including semiconductors, remained a significant support to export performance in early 2026.

Special Economic Zone exports rise despite tariff pressures and West Asia conflict, led by pharmaceuticals and overseas demand.
Exports from the Indore Special Economic Zone rose by nearly 10.50 per cent to Rs 14,302 crore in financial year 2025-26, despite concerns over US tariff policies and the West Asia conflict. Pharmaceuticals formed about 70 per cent of the export basket, with the US among the main markets. The zone contains units across pharmaceuticals, packaging materials, engineering, textiles and food processing in the Pithampur industrial area near Indore.

LPG and PNG supply measures expand domestic fuel access as India responds to West Asia disruption.
India has increased supply of smaller 5-kg LPG cylinders and accelerated PNG connections to manage fuel availability amid West Asia disruption. The response prioritises domestic household LPG, expands market-priced cylinders for users without subsidised connections, restores commercial LPG availability through targeted allocations, and directs natural gas toward household PNG, CNG transport and fertiliser plants. The broader supply strategy also includes higher domestic production, strong refinery utilisation, excise duty cuts on petrol and diesel, and higher export levies on diesel and aviation turbine fuel.