Asian shares rose as hopes for US interest-rate cuts offset US-China trade tensions and mixed economic signals.
Asian equity markets rose as hopes for US interest-rate cuts offset US-China trade tensions and mixed economic signals; investors parsed Fed remarks about downside employment risks amid limited data due to a US government shutdown, while corporate earnings and profit reports were identified as key near-term determinants of market valuation.

US economic outlook: IMF sees modestly stronger 2025 growth but warns tariffs and uncertainty remain significant downside risks.
The IMF projects slightly higher US and global growth in 2025 but warns that US tariffs and ongoing threats remain a significant downside risk by increasing business uncertainty, prompting front loaded imports and supply chain shifts, and likely producing greater price pass through to consumers over time; AI driven investment has partly offset these effects, while rising core inflation and stalled hiring indicate emerging costs from trade restrictions.

US trade tensions with China escalate over rare earth export restrictions and proposed 100% tariffs on imports.
China's export restrictions on rare earth minerals and its dominant processing capacity have prompted US calls for allied coordination to protect global supply chains. The US is threatening or imposing large reciprocal tariffs-up to a reported 100 percent on Chinese imports and about 50 percent on Indian imports including penalties linked to purchases of Russian oil-measures that India has criticised as unjustified and unreasonable.

Genetically modified food: regulators ordered to frame regulations within six months and imports halted until rules notified.
The court directed the central food regulator and the government to frame and notify regulations under the Food Safety Act for genetically modified edible products within six months, restrained any authorisations for sale, manufacture, distribution or import of GM food pending those regulations, and directed customs authorities to prevent importation; the court noted admissions that no standards or guidelines for GM food had been framed and that approvals had occurred in the absence of a regulatory framework.

US tariffs have so far proved less disruptive, prompting a modest IMF upgrade in growth forecasts despite emerging risks.
The IMF modestly upgraded US and global growth forecasts after finding that the administration's tariffs have been less disruptive than expected due to negotiated exemptions, limited retaliation, front-loading of imports, and rapid supply-chain rerouting. These factors provided temporary relief rather than durable strength. The IMF noted importers and retailers have absorbed most initial tariff costs but warned of likely future pass-through to consumers, highlighted rising core inflation and slowing hiring as early downside signs, and identified offsetting support from labour-supply constraints and AI-driven investment.

GDP growth forecast revised upward for the fiscal year after strong first quarter expansion, despite tariff related headwinds.
IMF revised India's GDP projection for the current fiscal year upward due to strong first quarter growth that offsets the effect of higher US tariffs on Indian imports, while lowering the following year's forecast. The revision reflects carryover from robust domestic expansion and anticipated dampening from trade policy shifts, set against a global outlook of modestly slower growth and moderation in emerging market expansion amid protectionist headwinds.

Trade agreement ratification urged as bilateral deal to open markets, lower tariffs and deepen economic governance.
The text focuses on advancing parliamentary ratification of the CETA to enable tariff reductions, quicker trade procedures and expanded market access, supported by a reconstituted JETCO to govern implementation and promote utilisation of the agreement. Complementary measures include deepening a Technology Security Initiative, facilitating foreign university campuses, and announced investment commitments in sectors such as advanced manufacturing, defence, automotive and film to realise the agreement's economic opportunities.

Cupid Ltd recognised for export performance at Maharashtra awards; projects Rs100 crore turnover on strong international orders.
Cupid Ltd was recognised at the Maharashtra State Export Award Ceremony 2025 for outstanding export performance, underscoring state-level promotion of exporters and the company's expansion across Africa, Latin America, Asia, Europe and the Middle East. The company cites a strong order book in South Africa, Tanzania, Kenya and Brazil and projects a turnover of Rs 100 crore in upcoming quarters, presenting the award as affirmation of its export-driven strategy and contribution to export-led growth and sustainable development objectives.

Mango beverages should contain 18-20% pulp and comply with FSSAI standards, plus export infrastructure support.
The Chief Minister urged the Prime Minister to instruct mango beverage manufacturers to ensure 18-20% pulp content and to enforce FSSAI standards on fruit pulp composition, requesting central intervention to secure compliance. He also sought APEDA assistance to develop export infrastructure, establish quality testing laboratories, organise buyer-seller meetings, identify overseas buyers, and provide capacity-building to implement Tamil Nadu's mango export policy and promote value addition for farmers.

India Post resumes postal services to the US; postal shipments subject to 50% flat customs duty under new rule.
India Post will resume all international postal services to the US on 15 October 2025; CBP guidance imposes a flat 50% customs duty on postal consignments by declared value. Postal items remain exempt from additional base or product specific duties that apply to courier consignments. The Department of Posts will keep existing postal tariffs unchanged and will not levy extra charges for facilitating Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) and qualified party services to preserve affordability for MSMEs and exporters while complying with US import rules.

Gems and jewellery exports rose, but tariffs in a key market drove sharp declines, prompting relief proposals to stabilize exporters.
Exports rose to USD 2,914.29 million in September with growth in cut and polished diamonds and gold jewellery, while exports to a key market fell sharply due to tariff pressures. The industry requested government relief: deferment of interest on working capital loans, pre shipment finance relief, extension of the Interest Equalisation Scheme, permission for reverse job work in SEZs, allowance of SEZ sales to the Domestic Tariff Area, liquidity support for MSMEs, and social protection measures for affected workers to stabilise cash flow and protect employment.

EV exports surge as Chinese automakers pivot overseas amid domestic price wars and international trade barriers.
China's exports of electric vehicles doubled in September as manufacturers expanded overseas in response to domestic overcapacity, intense price competition and compressed profit margins; this export-driven market diversification was accompanied by mixed domestic sales, industry measures to curb price wars, and shifting investment toward foreign markets amid international tariff pressures.

Trade sanctions target foreign shipbuilder subsidiaries after a probe, banning Chinese dealings and threatening further retaliatory measures.
China banned dealings by Chinese companies with five subsidiaries of a South Korean shipbuilder as a trade sanctions response to a US trade investigation deemed to threaten China's national security and shipping industry; Beijing also opened an investigation into the US probe, warned of further retaliatory measures, and imposed new port fees targeting vessels with significant US ownership, operation, flags, or US construction.

Trade tensions and tariff threats drive market volatility amid export control talk and looming earnings season.
Presidential threats of higher tariffs and references to retaliatory export controls, coupled with later reassurances, have created persistent uncertainty about US-China trade talks and near-term trade policy direction. That ambiguity has driven market volatility across Asian and US equities-particularly in technology and AI-linked stocks-while monetary policy expectations and the upcoming earnings season will be central to whether equity valuations adjust amid stretched investor confidence.

Tariffs tensions eased after presidential softening, easing market anxiety and reopening prospects for trade negotiations.
Presidentially threatened additional tariffs on Chinese imports and a subsequent public softening of that stance prompted a swift market sell-off followed by a rebound when the threat was downplayed, while China urged resolution through negotiation. Expectations of Fed interest-rate reductions, foreign-exchange effects on multinational earnings, and a major AI-related industry collaboration jointly influenced equity valuations and market volatility ahead of the corporate earnings reporting season.

India-EU free trade talks advancing but CBAM, steel, autos and non tariff barriers remain unresolved.
Negotiations for a comprehensive India-EU Free Trade Agreement are progressing but face unresolved issues on the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, steel and automobile sectors, and non tariff barriers; the negotiations cover 23 chapters including trade in goods and services, investment, rules of origin, customs and trade facilitation, technical barriers, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, trade remedies, dispute settlement, intellectual property rights and geographical indications.

Export controls: China says rare-earth restrictions are legally justified and unrelated to Pakistan's gift to the US.
China framed its tightened export controls on rare-earth minerals and related technologies as lawful measures to prevent misuse and fulfil non-proliferation obligations, aimed at unnamed foreign firms rather than any bilateral incident. Officials denied reports tying the restrictions to Pakistan's presentation of mineral samples to the US, asserting the samples were gem ores and reaffirming China-Pakistan strategic cooperation while defending the legitimacy of the export-control refinements.

US China trade tensions-export controls on rare earths and tariff threats drove market volatility, later eased by softer rhetoric.
China's export controls on rare earths and a US presidential threat to raise tariffs interacted to heighten trade tension, causing immediate market volatility; subsequent conciliatory US rhetoric tempered some losses. Equity indices and commodity prices moved with changes in rhetoric, while China's overall export growth contrasted with sustained double digit declines in shipments to the US, signalling shifts in trade patterns and supply chain exposure.

Tariff hike threats escalate trade tensions, prompting export controls and driving safe haven demand that lifts bullion prices.
The US announcement of a proposed tariff hike on select imports and threats of export restrictions on strategic minerals have heightened trade policy uncertainty, prompting risk off investor behaviour and upward pressure on precious metal prices. These trade measures, interacting with expectations of monetary easing, constrained physical supplies, and large scale accumulation, have materially tightened market balances and contributed to record bullion and silver price levels.

China-US trade tensions spur global markets sell-off after tariff threats and rare earth export curbs, impacting stocks worldwide.
The US threat to increase tariffs on China in response to Beijing's restrictions on rare earth exports has heightened trade policy hostility and shifted trade flows, with China reporting an 8.3% rise in overall exports but a 27% drop in exports to the US; the announcement and related export controls triggered sharp declines in Asian equity indices, broader market volatility, and notable moves in oil prices and 10 year Treasury yields.