December 5, 2025
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Inflation projection lowered to 2% for FY26, driven by food-price correction and contained core inflation.
The central bank lowered the FY26 retail inflation projection to 2 per cent, attributing the downward revision to broad-based disinflation driven by food price correction and contained core inflation. Quarterly forecasts were set at 0.6% for Q3 and 2.9% for Q4 of 2025 26, with later quarters of 2026 27 expected to move toward the target band. Improved food supply conditions, favorable sowing and reservoir levels, and moderating commodity prices (excluding some metals) were cited as key factors, while precious metal price effects account for a notable portion of underlying inflationary pressure.