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The central bank revised its FY26 real GDP forecast up to 6.8% and lowered the CPI inflation projection to 2.6%, citing an above-normal monsoon and GST rate rationalisation that should temper inflation while supporting consumption and growth; it noted US tariffs may constrain exports. Quarterly growth is projected at 7.0% (Q2), 6.4% (Q3), and 6.2% (Q4), with Q1 FY27 estimated at 6.4%. Quarterly CPI projections are 1.8% (Q2), 1.8% (Q3) and 4.0% (Q4), with Q1 FY27 at 4.5%; core inflation remains contained.
The central bank revised its FY26 real GDP forecast up to 6.8% and lowered the CPI inflation projection to 2.6%, citing an above-normal monsoon and GST rate rationalisation that should temper inflation while supporting consumption and growth; it noted US tariffs may constrain exports. Quarterly growth is projected at 7.0% (Q2), 6.4% (Q3), and 6.2% (Q4), with Q1 FY27 estimated at 6.4%. Quarterly CPI projections are 1.8% (Q2), 1.8% (Q3) and 4.0% (Q4), with Q1 FY27 at 4.5%; core inflation remains contained.
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