TaxTMI 
TaxTMI 
TaxTMI 
It would be absolutely possible for a full time GST Professional who is a veteran on GST to predict the success rate at Supreme Court of even a Show Cause Notice with demand of GST in 1000’s of Crores. It is also absolutely possible as to how much to litigate and how much to pay immediately at least with 80% accuracy which will happen when the matter reaches for final order at Supreme Court. This being so, even big teams of legal professionals headed by Assistant Solicitor General of India appear before Supreme Court on Special Leave Petitions/ Civil Appeals filed by Revenue and still loose the cases. Why this should continue to happen anymore ?. Would not it be possible for CBIC to take the decision on filing of SLP/CA only in appropriate cases where Revenue is strong?.
While my though was on the above line this evening, I decided to randomly select 10 cases of SLP/ Civil appeals where the petitioner is Revenue and analyse the outcome. Let us proceed with a simple analysis by way of a table to arrive the success rate out of 10 such cases now. It may be kindly noted that all 10 case laws are as published in TMI and the petitioner is Revenue in all cases.
No | Citation | Respondent | Issue | Outcome |
1 | 2026 (2) TMI 112 - SC ORDER | Global Opportunity | Extension of time for compliance | Dismissed |
2 | 2026 (1) TMI 1456 - SC ORDER | SAIL | Question of law | Dismissed |
3 | 2026 (1) TMI 638 - SC ORDER | Global education | Defreezing bank account | Only cost imposed was modified |
4 | 2025 (10) TMI 1123 - SC ORDER | Patson papers | Refund of ITC | Dismissed |
5 | 2025 (11) TMI 429 - SC ORDER | Novelty Reddy | DIN Number not available | Partly in favor of Revenue |
6 | 2025 (10) TMI 721 - SC ORDER | Grasim Industries | Cost of 100000 imposed on revenue | Order modified only to the extent of cost imposition |
7 | 2025 (10) TMI 720 - SC ORDER | Glenmark Pharmaceuticals | Budgetary support | Dismissed |
8 | 2025 (10) TMI 604 - SC ORDER | Wingtech Mobiles | Provisional attachment of Bank | Not inclined to interfere with H C order |
9 | 2025 (10) TMI 324 - SC ORDER | Usha Gupta | Penalty on entire consignment | Decline to entertain the Appeal |
10 | 2025 (10) TMI 323 - SC ORDER | Meghmani Organochem | Refund of ITC | Dismissed. |
The purpose was only to analyse the success rate of Revenue before Supreme Court in SLP/CA. As against a random selection of ten such cases, Revenue got lost their cases straight away in 7 cases whereas in other three cases, the orders of High court were only modified partly in favor of Revenue, though in majority of all ten cases, the success rate of Revenue on merits is poor.
There is no doubt that GST is evolving law and the very first order of Principal Bench of GSTAT, New Delhi is published only on 12/02/2026. As such, by expediting the process of full functioning of all benches of GSTAT with effect from 01/04/2026 across India, we may see a decline in number of writs reaching jurisdictional High courts as well as number of Special Leave Petitions reaching Supreme Court may also come down.
It may be concluded by saying that as majority of cases are lost by Revenue before Supreme Court as the orders passed by High Courts happen to be reasoned, CBIC may think of accepting High Court Verdicts as final and instruct field formation accordingly in appropriate cases. There is no point in testing each and every issue at Supreme Court by way of SLP/CA as the expected outcome is predictable. Over and above, even on an issue on tax head mismatch, despite the fact that SLP was dismissed in October 2025 itself in favor of taxpayer, one additional commissioner (central ) passed orders confirming demand on 20/01/2026 not bothering about the order of SC. Then what do we finally achieve after Supreme Court Verdict?.