New Delhi, Jul 23 (PTI) The 10 per cent temporary tariff imposed by the US on imports from its trading partners, including India, is set to expire at 9:31 am (IST) on July 24, unless President Donald Trump's administration extends the measure or announces a new tariff regime.

If no fresh announcement is made in the next few hours, imports from India and other US trading partners will revert to the tariff regime that existed before April 2, 2025, when no additional duty was in place.

Trump, in April 2025, announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on a number of countries, including on India (26 per cent).

For example, a shirt exported from India, which attracted a 5 per cent Most Favoured Nation (MFN) duty in the US, has been subject to an additional 10 per cent tariff since February 24. If the temporary tariff expires on July 24 without being extended or replaced, the product will again attract only the 5 per cent MFN duty.

The US, on Wednesday, said it will release the "final responsive action" on Section 301 investigations on 60 trading partners, including India, on the issue of forced labour "as soon as tomorrow", before the 10 per cent additional tariffs on all countries expire.

While America has proposed 12.5 per cent tariffs under these investigations on 54 nations including India, 10 per cent has been proposed on six others, such as Pakistan.

Economic think tank GTRI said that from 9:31 am (IST) on July 24, around 92 per cent of India's USD 87.2-billion merchandise exports to the US will once again be subject only to the normal WTO-compatible US MFN tariffs.

During April-June 2026-27, India's merchandise exports to America declined marginally by 0.06 per cent to USD 25.46 billion, while imports increased 23.82 per cent to USD 16.65 billion.

The surcharge, imposed under Section 122 of the US Trade Act of 1974, expires at 12:01 a.m. EDT on July 24 (9:31 am IST). The tariff applies based on when goods are entered for consumption or withdrawn from a US customs warehouse, rather than when they are shipped or arrive in the US, the think tank said.

The relief (if no new announcements are made), comes after almost a year of rapidly changing US tariff policies towards India.

The Section 122 tariff was announced on February 20, 2026, took effect on February 24, 2026, and remained in force for the maximum statutory period of 150 days.

THREE TARIFF REGIME IN LAST ONE YEAR ---------------------------------------------- Over the past year, Indian exports to the United States have passed through three distinct tariff regimes, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said.

Between August 27, 2025 and February 23, 2026, most Indian exports faced additional reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

About 55 per cent of India's exports, including engineering goods, textiles and garments, chemicals, machinery, plastics, leather products, gems and jewellery, furniture and most other manufactured goods, paid the normal US MFN tariff plus an additional 50 per cent tariff, consisting of a 25 per cent reciprocal tariff and another 25 per cent surcharge linked to India's purchases of Russian oil.

"However, another 37 per cent of India's exports, including smartphones, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and energy products, were exempt from the reciprocal tariff regime and continued to pay only the applicable MFN tariff," GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said.

On February 20, the US Supreme Court struck down Trump's reciprocal tariffs, ruling that the administration lacked authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose them.

The White House responded by replacing the reciprocal tariffs with a temporary 10 per cent Section 122 import surcharge.

Between February 24 and July 24, the same 55 per cent of Indian exports became subject to the MFN tariff plus the 10 per cent surcharge.

The remaining 37 per cent of exports, including smartphones, continued to remain exempt under section 122 and paid only the normal MFN tariff.

SECTION 232 GOODS UNAFFECTED -------------------------------------- The GTRI said that products covered by Section 232 national security tariffs -- including steel, aluminium, certain copper products, automobiles and specified auto components -- represent about 8 per cent of India's exports to the US.

Their tariff treatment has remained unchanged throughout the year.

These products continue to pay the normal US MFN tariff plus the applicable Section 232 tariff.

"For example, a steel product with a 2.5 per cent MFN tariff continues to face a total duty of 52.5 per cent, while aluminium products pay 55 per cent and covered auto components 27.5 per cent," he said.

Neither the reciprocal tariffs nor the temporary Section 122 surcharge applied to these products.

SEC 301 INVESTIGATIONS ----------------------------- The Trump administration is already pursuing two Section 301 investigations that could lead to fresh tariffs on Indian exports, he said.

One investigation focuses on forced labour in global supply chains, while the other targets countries alleged to maintain excess manufacturing capacity. India is covered by both investigations, and the Office of the US Trade Representative has already proposed 12.5 per cent tariffs in the forced-labour case.

Washington has also increasingly relied on country-specific tariffs, recently imposing unilateral duties on countries such as Brazil and Canada.

"While the expiry of Section 122 restores normal MFN tariff treatment for the overwhelming majority of Indian exports, the improvement may prove temporary. With Section 301 investigations nearing completion, the possibility of country-specific actions and sectoral tariffs on products such as generic medicines, Indian exporters continue to face considerable uncertainty in their largest overseas market," Srivastava said.

EXPORTERS' VIEWS ---------------------- Exporters said that if the 10 per cent reciprocal tariff by the US expires on July 24, it will enhance the competitiveness of Indian exports, improve market access, and particularly benefit labour-intensive and MSME-driven sectors.

While the development creates fresh opportunities, the real gains will depend on how effectively Indian exporters leverage this window through quality, reliability, and timely delivery, an exporter said.

INDIA-US TRADE PACT ------------------------- Both India and the US are negotiating a trade pact. India is seeking a competitive advantage at the tariff front in the pact to sign the agreement. PTI RR HVA

Temporary Section 122 surcharge expiry may restore MFN treatment for Indian exports, while Section 301 tariff uncertainty continues. The US temporary Section 122 import surcharge on Indian goods is scheduled to expire unless extended or replaced, restoring affected imports to normal US MFN tariff treatment. Liability depends on entry for consumption or warehouse withdrawal. Section 232 national-security tariffs remain unchanged. Indian exports may still face fresh measures under Section 301 investigations into forced labour and excess manufacturing capacity, alongside potential country-specific or sectoral tariffs. The expiry may improve export competitiveness and market access, particularly for labour-intensive and MSME-driven sectors.