INDIA ON TRACK TO REACH DEBT-TO-GDP RATIO OF 50±1 PERCENT BY 2030-31

FISCAL DEFICIT TO REMAIN AT4.4 PERCENT OF GDP AS PER RE 2025-26

FISCAL DEFICIT ESTIMATED TO BE 4.3 PERCENT OF GDP IN BE 2026-27

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE STANDS AT 11 LAKH CRORE OF TOTAL EXPENDITURE OF 49.6 LAKH CRORE AS PER RE 2025-26

CENTRE’S NET TAX RECEIPTS TO TOUCH 26.7 LAKH CRORE

While presenting the Union Budget 2026-27in Parliament today, Union Minister for Finance and Corporate Affairs, Smt. Nirmala Sitharaman stated, “Government has been delivering onfiscal commitments consistently without compromising on social needs.” In line with this, the debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to be 55.6 percent of GDP in BE 2026-27, compared to 56.1 percent of GDP in RE 2025-26. A declining debt-to-GDP ratio will gradually free up resources for priority sectorexpenditure by reducing the outgo on interest payments.

Fiscal Deficit

While speaking about Fiscal deficit, one of the main operational instruments for debt targeting, Smt. Sitharaman informedthe parliament tha commitment made in FY 2021-22 to reduce fiscal deficit below 4.5 percent of GDP by 2025-26 has been fulfilled. In RE 2025-26, the fiscal deficit has been estimated at par with BE of 2025-26 at 4.4 percent of GDP. In line with the new fiscal prudence path of debt consolidation, the fiscal deficit in BE 2026-27 is estimated to be 4.3 percent of GDP.”

Revised Estimates (RE) 2025-26.

The Finance Minister informedthat,“ The RE of the non-debt receipts are ₹34 lakh crore of which the Centre’s net tax receipts are ₹26.7 lakh crore. The Revised Estimate of the total expenditure is ₹49.6 lakh crore, of which the capital expenditure is about ₹11 lakh crore.”

Budget Estimates (BE) 2026-27

The Union Finance Minister stated that, “The non-debt receipts and the total expenditure are estimated as ₹36.5 lakh crore and ₹53.5 lakh crore respectively. The Centre’s net tax receipts are estimated at ₹28.7 lakh crore.”

Gross Market Borrowings

The Union Finance Ministersaid that “To finance the fiscal deficit, the net market borrowings from dated securities are estimated at ₹11.7 lakh crore. The balance financing is expected tocome from small savings and other sources. The gross market borrowings are estimated at ₹17.2 lakh crore.”

India budget projects debt-to-GDP falling to 50% 1 by 2030-31; fiscal deficit 4.3% in BE 2026-27. The document projects a debt-to-GDP ratio target of 50 1 percent by 2030-31, estimates the ratio at 55.6 percent in BE 2026-27 and 56.1 percent in RE 2025-26, and sets a fiscal deficit path of 4.4 percent of GDP in RE 2025-26 and 4.3 percent in BE 2026-27. It states RE and BE figures for non-debt receipts and total expenditure, capital expenditure levels, Centre's net tax receipts, and market borrowing requirements including net dated-securities borrowings of Rs.11.7 lakh crore and gross borrowings of Rs.17.2 lakh crore.