<h1>Treasury warns global shocks worsen economy as autumn budget may raise taxes while pledging paid youth work guarantee</h1> A Treasury chief warned that wars in Europe and the Middle East, higher global borrowing costs and US tariffs have worsened the country's economic outlook since last year's change of government, increasing pressure ahead of an autumn budget where tax rises remain possible despite pledges not to raise key working-people taxes; the government has already increased employer levies. The budget speech will pledge measures to end long-term youth unemployment with guaranteed paid work for under-25s out of work 18 months. The governing party faces polling threats from a hard-right rival and plans to tighten residency rules for immigrants.