Harare (Zimbabwe), Jul 18 (AP) When US President Donald Trump met five African leaders in Washington in July, his lack of familiarity with the continent was on display.

He praised Liberian President Joseph Boakai's English — Liberia's official language — and gestured at another leader to wrap up remarks. But the bigger takeaway was Trump's pledge to transform US-Africa relations: a shift from aid to trade, even as the region reels from steep tariffs and sweeping aid cuts.

African leaders offered minerals from manganese to uranium and possibly lithium. Senegal's president even sought to leverage Trump's love of golf by inviting him to build a course. Yet many nations are anxious about Washington's new path.

After slashing billions in foreign aid, including shutting down the US Agency for International Development — which provided over USD 12 billion in humanitarian assistance in 2025 alone — the Trump administration says it is forging a new approach: “commercial diplomacy.” Trade, not aid, is the order of the day.

“It is now truly our policy for Africa,” said Troy Fitrell, the top US diplomat for Africa, when announcing the strategy in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, in May.

Ambassadors will now be judged not by aid projects but on “how well they support” local businesses and “how effectively they advocate for US business and the number of deals they facilitate,” he said.

Africa accounts for less than 1 per cent of US goods trade, but Fitrell called it “the world's largest untapped market,” projecting its purchasing power could surpass USD 16 trillion by 2050.

Early deals, lingering doubts Washington touts quick progress: 33 agreements worth USD 6 billion in Trump's first 100 days, plus USD 2.5 billion in commitments at a US-Africa business summit in June. Projects span grain storage and digital infrastructure in Angola, energy ventures in Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Congo, and tourism in Ethiopia.

Still, many worry about the costs. Job losses and economic pain from tariffs are mounting even as Washington celebrates these wins.

Trump did not invent the idea of trade over aid. African leaders have pushed for this since the 1970s. The problem, critics say, is the caveat: steep tariffs and uncertainty over the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the US flagship programme for trade with the continent.

“In reality, these tariffs are not about trade balances. It's economic warfare,” said the Alternative Information and Development Centre, a South African NGO.

Fears that jobs could go Trump has imposed a 30 per cent tariff on selected South African goods and threatens another 10 per cent for nations aligned with the BRICS bloc of developing economies. South Africa's Automotive Business Council says vehicle exports to the US have plunged over 80 per cent, warning that tariffs “strike at the heart of South Africa's industrialization agenda.” More than 100,000 jobs, mostly in auto and agriculture, are at risk, the council says.

Smaller nations are also reeling. Lesotho declared a state of disaster after being hit with 50 per cent duties — the second-highest rate after China — before Trump announced a 90-day pause.

About 12,000 textile jobs hang in the balance, according to Lesotho's Minister of Trade, Industry, and Business Development, Mokhethi Shelile. From vanilla farmers in Madagascar to cocoa growers in Ivory Coast and oil exporters in Nigeria, tariffs have shaken economies and raised doubts about Washington's intent.

“The US certainly can't have it both ways,” said Bester Brendon Verster, an economist at Oxford Economics Africa. “The 'aid to trade' stance risks leaving Africa behind once the US has gotten what it wanted, which will probably be critical minerals." An agreement on the brink AGOA, enacted in 2000 and renewed in 2015, allows duty-free US access for nearly 2,000 goods from 32 African nations. It expires in September, with no clear sign that it will be renewed.

South Africa's trade minister warned it will be “very difficult” to keep AGOA under current conditions. Fitrell said he is a “big fan” of the deal but told African leaders they must do more to lobby Congress. Future arrangements may require “much greater attention toward some form of reciprocity” to reflect Trump's push for US economic interests, he said.

Meanwhile, China is leveraging zero-tariff policies to expand its influence. In June, China — already Africa's biggest trading partner — said it plans to grant duty-free market access to 53 African nations. Still, Verster said some African nations might be cautious about strengthening ties with China, for fear of triggering retaliation from the US.

“Aligning with China … could possibly bring about more economic punishment from the US," he said. (AP) GRS GRS

Trade policy shift prioritises commercial diplomacy over aid, while tariffs and AGOA uncertainty disrupt African exports and jobs. The United States has shifted to a commercial diplomacy approach prioritising trade and private-sector deals over aid, measuring diplomats by their support for US business. Simultaneously, tariff impositions and uncertainty over renewal of the AGOA preferential trade regime have caused export disruptions, job risks in key sectors, and heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty for African states.