Press Information Bureau

Government of India

Ministry of Finance

07-February-2013 14:59 IST

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has released the Advance Estimates of GDP for 2012-13. These are only advance estimates, the actual figure for growth rate is yet to be released.

Based on these, it is observed that the growth of GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices (real GDP) for 2012-13 is placed at 5.0 per cent as against 6.2 per cent for 2011-12. At the sectoral level the growth rate is 1.8 per cent for Agriculture and Allied sectors, 3.1 per cent for Industry sector and 6.6 per cent for Services sector. (This growth was 3.6 per cent, 3.5 per cent and 8.2 per cent respectively for these sectors in 2011-12).The reduction in growth in Agriculture and Allied sectors has been on account of rainfall being lower than normal, particularly in the months of June-July. In the industry sector, growth has been lower mainly on account of a reduction in growth of manufacturing sector from 2.7 per cent in 2011-12 to 1.9 per cent in the current year.

However, as per practice, this projection is based on extrapolation of numbers till November 2012. Since then leading indicators have turned up, suggesting some hope that we will end the year on a better note. Also, sectors such as trade and transport, which are related to industry, would also tend to get revised upwards, if growth outcomes are better.

It may be recalled that the RBI, in its outlook released on January 28, 2013 projected a growth rate of 5.5 per cent. The CSO’s growth estimate, no doubt, is below what we i.e. the Finance Ministry had expected it to be. We are keeping a watch on the situation. We have taken and will continue to take appropriate measures to revive growth.

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DSM/RS/Ka

Advance estimates signal slower growth; Finance Ministry will monitor indicators and take measures to revive growth. Advance estimates of real GDP for 2012-13 place aggregate growth at 5.0 per cent with agriculture, industry and services showing lower expansion driven by deficient monsoon and slowed manufacturing; these projections are extrapolated through November 2012. The Finance Ministry states it is closely monitoring developments, has taken and will continue to take appropriate measures to revive growth, notes recent positive movements in leading indicators and expects possible upward revisions in trade and transport if growth outcomes improve.