Beijing, Apr 7 (PTI) The new set of 34 per cent tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Chinese exports could impact China's GDP by two to 2.5 percentage points, further affecting the Chinese economy which is struggling with slowdown, a top Chinese Economist said.

Larry Hu, chief China economist at investment bank Macquarie, estimated that Trump's latest tariffs could reduce China's exports by 15 percentage points and its gross domestic product growth by 2-2.5 percentage points.

"The impact could manifest itself through multiple channels such as falling US demand for Chinese goods, the potential global economic slowdown and the hit on export re-routing," Hu wrote in a research report, the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post reported on Monday.

China this year has fixed a five per cent GDP target for its economy which is struggling with a slowdown weighed down by stagnating domestic consumption and a crisis in its housing sector.

With the latest 34 per cent tariffs, Trump's levies on Chinese exports amounted to 54 per cent. This is in addition to about 15 per cent tariffs imposed during Trump’s previous term. His successor Joe Biden has retained Trump's tariffs.

Furthermore, Trump ended the duty-free exemption for China’s small parcel exports, which amounted to USD 30 to 50 billion annually. Consequently, China’s exports, a major driver of economic growth, are poised for a sharp decline, the Post report said.

China's exports to the US, its third largest market, amounted to USD 438 billion last year against its imports of USD 143 billion from the US.

Trump slapped tariffs on Chinese goods accusing China of failing to curb the flow of raw materials to manufacture fentanyl, a potent opioid drug blamed for widespread drug addiction in America.

China for its part retaliated with 34 per cent tariffs against US exports to China targeting the agricultural goods affecting the American farmers in a tit-for-tat retaliation.   Beijing also imposed export control measures on certain rare earth metals aimed at hitting high-tech American defence, computers and smartphone industries.

Trump’s extreme measures could compel Beijing to undertake long-awaited efforts to rebalance its economy by further stimulating domestic demand, veteran Chinese commentator and columnist Wang Xiangwei said.

This is a priority, the leadership acknowledged publically but has been slow to prioritise, he wrote in his column in the Post on Monday.

This reluctance is tied to China's economic management philosophy, in place since the modern founding of the country in 1949, which emphasises a development model prioritising industrial output over living standards and capital investment over consumer spending.  In other words, Beijing has long relied on two traditional engines of growth: exports and infrastructure investment, Wang said.

China’s household consumption accounts for about 38 per cent of GDP, compared to 60 to 70 per cent in Western countries, he said.

Revitalising the private sector is crucial for China to pivot to domestic consumption to achieve its five per cent growth target as private businesses contribute 60 per cent of China's GDP and account for more than 80 per cent of urban employment, he said.

He further said that, it is significant at a time when the youth unemployment is in double digits.

On Monday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry once again hit out at Trump's tariffs asserting that the levies reflected unilateralism, protectionism and economic bullying. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian told a media briefing here that the new tariffs harmed the stability of global production and supply chain and seriously impacted the world's economic recovery.

Separately Ling Ji, vice minister of commerce and deputy China international trade representative told a roundtable meeting with US-funded companies on Sunday that China has taken firm countermeasures in response, aimed not only at defending the rights of affected enterprises but also at letting the US return to the multilateral framework.

Calling the US itself the root cause of current turbulence, Ling urged American businesses operating in China to examine the situation objectively, voice rational perspectives, and take pragmatic steps to help stabilise global supply chains and promote cooperation for mutual benefits. PTI KJV AMS

Tariffs impact reduces export demand and risks significant GDP slowdown, prompting reciprocal measures and supply chain concerns. A new US tariff regime and removal of duty free exemptions are projected to reduce Chinese GDP by multiple percentage points through lower US demand, disrupted supply chains, export re routing and loss of small parcel flows, exacerbating an economy already weakened by weak domestic consumption and housing sector strains; Beijing has replied with reciprocal tariffs and export controls while calling for domestic rebalancing and private sector revitalisation.