INDIA’S FOREIGN TRADE: OCTOBER 2021

October Exports up by 35.16% over same month last year, Imports jump by 57.32%

Overall Exports April-October rise by 39.83%, Imports leap by 63.64 %

India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in October 2021* are estimated to be USD 56.51Billion, exhibiting a positive growth of 35.16per cent over the same period last year and a positive growth of 29.13per cent over October 2019. Overall imports in October 2021* are estimated to be USD 68.09Billion, exhibiting a positive growth of 57.32per cent over the same period last year and a positive growth of 40.82per cent over October 2019.

		October 2021 (USD Billion)	October 2020 (USD Billion)	October 2019 (USD Billion)	Growth vis-à-vis October 2020 (%)	Growth vis-à-vis October 2019 (%)
Merchandise	Exports	35.65	24.92	26.23	43.05	35.89
	Imports	55.37	34.07	37.99	62.51	45.77
	Trade Balance	-19.73	-9.15	-11.75	-115.50	-67.83
Services*	Exports	20.86	16.89	17.53	23.52	19.01
	Imports	12.71	9.21	10.36	38.09	22.68
	Net of Services	8.14	7.68	7.16	6.06	13.69
Overall Trade (Merchandise+ Services)*	Exports	56.51	41.81	43.76	35.16	29.13
	Imports	68.09	43.28	48.35	57.32	40.82
	Trade Balance	-11.58	-1.47	-4.59	-685.57	-152.36

* Note: The latest data for services sector released by RBI is for September 2021. The data for October 2021 is an estimation, which will be revised based on RBI’s subsequent release.(ii) Data for2019,2020 and April to June 2021 are revised on pro-rata basis using quarterly balance of payments data.

India’s overall exports (Merchandise and Services combined) in April-October 2021* are estimated to be USD 369.39Billion, exhibiting a positive growth of 39.83per cent over the same period last year and a positive growth of 19.97per cent over April-October 2019. Overall imports in April-October 2021* are estimated to be USD 409.30Billion, exhibiting a positive growth of 63.64per cent over the same period last year and a positive growth of 13.57per cent over April-October 2019.

		April-October 2021 (USD Billion)	April-October 2020 (USD Billion)	April-October 2019 (USD Billion)	Growth vis-à-vis April-October 2020 (%)	Growth vis-à-vis April-October 2019 (%)
Merchandise	Exports	233.54	150.54	185.40	55.13	25.97
	Imports	331.39	186.01	286.07	78.16	15.84
	Trade Balance	-97.85	-35.47	-100.67	-175.90	2.80
Services*	Exports	135.85	113.63	122.50	19.55	10.90
	Imports	77.91	64.11	74.32	21.53	4.83
	Net of Services	57.94	49.52	48.18	17.00	20.26
Overall Trade (Merchandise+ Services)*	Exports	369.39	264.18	307.89	39.83	19.97
	Imports	409.30	250.12	360.39	63.64	13.57
	Trade Balance	-39.91	14.06	-52.49	-383.95	23.97

* Note: The latest data for services sector released by RBI is for September 2021. The data for October 2021 is an estimation, which will be revised based on RBI’s subsequent release. (ii) Data for 2019, 2020 and April to June 2021 are revised on pro-rata basis using quarterly balance of payments data.

I. MERCHANDISE TRADE

EXPORTS (including re-exports)

• Exports in October 2021 were USD 35.65 Billion, as compared to USD 24.92 Billion in October 2020, exhibiting a positive growth of 43.05 per cent. In Rupee terms, exports were ₹ 2,67,056.26 Crore in October 2021, as compared to ₹ 1,83,060.60 Crore in October 2020, registering a positive growth of 45.88 per cent. As compared to October 2019, exports in October 2021 exhibited a positive growth of 35.89 per cent in Dollar terms and 43.30per cent in Rupee terms.
• The commodities/commodity groups which have recorded positive growth during October 2021 vis-à-vis October 2020 arePetroleum Products (240.23%), Coffee (80.73%), Engineering goods (50.89%), Cotton yarn/fabs./made-ups, handloom products etc. (46.2%), Gems & jewellery (44.23%), Organic & inorganic chemicals (41.93%), Electronic goods (39.51%), Fruits & vegetables (34.03%), Plastic & Linoleum (30.51%), Mica, Coal & other ores, minerals including processed minerals (30.39%), Man-made yarn/fabs./made-ups etc. (29.12%), Jute mfg. including floor covering (27.44%), Cashew (18.39%), Marine products (18.08%), Leather & leather products (15.64%), Tobacco (11.58%), Carpet (10.06%), Handicrafts excl. handmade Carpet (9.72%), RMG of all textiles (6.42%), Cereal preparations & miscellaneous processed items (5.64%), Spices (1.19%) and Other cereals  (0.36%).
• The commodities/commodity groups which have recorded negative growth during October 2021 vis-à-vis October 2020 are Iron ore (-76.7%), Oil meals (-50.66%), Oil seeds (-16.25%), Tea (-10.85%), Ceramic products & glassware (-6.6%), Meat, dairy & poultry products  (-4.59%) and Drugs & pharmaceuticals (-0.88%).
• Cumulative value of exports for the period April-October 2021 was USD 233.54 Billion (₹ 17,30,104.50Crore) as against USD 150.54 Billion (₹ 11,24,418.69 Crore) during the period April-October 2020, registering a positive growth of 55.13 per cent in Dollar terms (positive growth of 53.87 per cent in Rupee terms). As compared to April-October 2019, exports in April-October 2021 exhibited a positive growth of 25.97 per cent in Dollar terms and 33.06 per cent in Rupee terms.
• Non-petroleum and Non-Gems and Jewellery exports in October 2021 were USD 26.09 Billion, as compared to USD 20.43 Billion in October 2020, registering a positive growth of 27.75 per cent. As compared to October 2019, Non-petroleum and Non-Gems and Jewellery exports in October 2021registered a positive growth of 36.82 per cent. Non-petroleum and Non-Gems and Jewellery exports in April-October 2021 were USD 175.99 Billion, as compared to USD 125.23 Billion for the corresponding period in 2020-21, which is an increase of 40.53 per cent. As compared to April-October 2019, Non-petroleum and Non-Gems and Jewellery exports in April-October 2021 registered a positive growth of 27.79 per cent.

IMPORTS

• Imports in October 2021 were USD 55.37 Billion (₹ 4,14,832.20 Crore), which is an increase of 62.51 per cent in Dollar terms and 65.73 per cent in Rupee terms over imports of USD 34.07 Billion (₹ 2,50,299.93 Crore) in October 2020. Imports in October 2021 have registered a positive growth of45.77 per cent in Dollar terms and 53.73 per cent in Rupee terms in comparison to October 2019. Cumulative value of imports for the period April-October 2021 was USD 331.39 Billion (₹ 24,55,722.54 Crore), as against USD 186.01 Billion (₹ 13,89,331.98 Crore) during the period April-October 2020, registering a positive growth of 78.16 per cent in Dollar terms and a positive growth of 76.76 per cent in Rupee terms. Imports in April-October 2021 have registered a positive growth of 15.84 per cent in Dollar terms and positive growth of 22.46 per cent in Rupee terms in comparison to April-October 2019.
• Major commodity group of import showing negative growth in October2021 over the corresponding month of last year is:

CRUDE OIL AND NON-OIL IMPORTS:

• Oil imports in October 2021 were USD 14.43Billion (₹ 1,08,096.22 Crore), which was 140.47 percent higher in Dollar terms (145.24 percent higher in Rupee terms), compared to USD 6.00 Billion (₹ 44,076.88 Crore) in October 2020. As compared to October 2019, oil imports in October 2021 were 48.32 percent higher in Dollar terms and 56.41per cent higher in Rupee terms. Oil imports in April-October 2021 were USD 87.42 Billion (₹ 6,47,678.65 Crore) which was 129.96 per cent higher in Dollar terms (127.86 percent higher in Rupee terms) compared to USD 38.01 Billion (₹ 2,84,243.09 Crore), over the same period last year. As compared to April-October 2019, oil imports in April-October 2021 were 16.67 percent higher in Dollar terms and 23.32per cent higher in Rupee terms.
• In this connection it is mentioned that the global Brent price ($/bbl) has increased by 106.70% in October 2021 vis-à-vis October 2020 as per data available from World Bank.
• Non-oil imports in October 2021 were estimated at USD 40.94 Billion (₹ 3,06,735.98 Crore) which was 45.85 percent higher in Dollar terms (48.74 percent higher in Rupee terms), compared to USD 28.07 Billion (₹ 2,06,223.06 Crore) in October 2020. As compared to October 2019, Non-oil imports in October 2021, were 44.90per cent higher in Dollar terms and 52.80 per cent higher in Rupee terms. Non-oil imports in April-October 2021 were USD 243.98 Billion (₹ 18,08,043.89 Crore) which was 64.85 per cent higher in Dollar terms (63.61 percent higher in Rupee terms), compared to USD 148.00 Billion (₹ 11,05,088.89 Crore) in April-October 2020. As compared to April-October 2019, Non-oil imports in April-October 2021 were 15.55 per cent higher in Dollar terms and 22.15 per cent higher in Rupee terms.
• Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports were USD 35.84Billion in October 2021, recording a positive growth of 40.14per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports of USD 25.57Billion in October 2020. Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports in October 2021 recorded a positive growth of 35.66 per cent over October 2019. Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports were USD 214.91Billion in April-October 2021, recording a positive growth of 54.92per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports of USD 138.72Billion in April-October 2020. Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports in April-October 2021 recorded a positive growth of 11.06 per cent over April-October 2019.

II. TRADE IN SERVICES

EXPORTS (Receipts)

• As per the latest press release by RBI dated 1^stNovember 2021, exports in September 2021 were USD 20.68Billion (₹ 1,52,129.11Crore) registering a positive growth of 21.96per cent in Dollar terms, vis-à-vis September2020. The estimated value of services export for October2021* is USD 20.86Billion, exhibiting a positive growth of 23.52per cent vis-a-vis October 2020 (USD 16.89Billion) and a positive growth of 19.01per cent vis-à-vis October 2019 (USD 17.53Billion).

IMPORTS (Payments)

• As per the latest press release by RBI dated 1^stNovember2021, imports in September 2021were USD 12.21Billion (₹ 89,850.34Crore) registering a positive growth of 25.01per cent in Dollar terms, vis-à-vis September 2020. The estimated value of services import for October2021* is USD 12.71Billion exhibiting a positive growth of 38.09per cent vis-à-vis October 2020 (USD 9.21Billion) and a positivegrowth of22.68per cent vis-à-vis October 2019 (USD 10.36Billion).

III.TRADE BALANCE

• MERCHANDISE: The trade balance for October2021 was estimated at USD(-) 19.73Billion as against USD(-) 9.15Billion inOctober2020, which is a declineof (-) 115.50 percent. As compared to October 2019 (USD (-) 11.75 Billion), trade balance in October 2021 exhibited a negative growth of(-) 67.83 per cent.          
• SERVICES: As per RBI’s Press Release dated 1^stNovember2021, the trade balance in Services (i.e. Net Services export) for September 2021is USD8.47Billion. The estimated trade balance in October 2021* is USD8.14Billion, which is an increase of 6.06per cent over October 2020 (USD 7.68Billion) and an increase of13.69per cent over October2019 (USD 7.16Billion).
• OVERALL TRADE BALANCE: Taking merchandise and services together, overall trade balance for October 2021* is estimated atUSD (-) 11.58Billion as compared to USD(-) 1.47Billion in October 2020, a decline of (-) 685.57per cent. In comparison to October 2019(USD (-) 4.59Billion), trade balance in October 2021 exhibited a negative growth of(-) 152.36per cent.

*Note: The latest data for services sector released by RBI is for September 2021. The data for October 2021 is an estimation, which will be revised based on RBI’s subsequent release. (ii) Data for 2019, 2020 and April to June 2021 are revised on pro-rata basis using quarterly balance of payments data.

MERCHANDISE TRADE

EXPORTS & IMPORTS: (Rs. Crore)
(PROVISIONAL)
	OCTOBER	APRIL-OCTOBER
EXPORTS(including re-exports)
2019-20	1,86,358.06	13,00,244.23
2020-21	1,83,060.60	11,24,418.69
2021-22	2,67,056.26	17,30,104.50
%Growth 2021-22/ 2020-21	45.88	53.87
%Growth 2021-22/ 2019-20	43.30	33.06
IMPORTS
2019-20	2,69,852.86	20,05,403.85
2020-21	2,50,299.93	13,89,331.98
2021-22	4,14,832.20	24,55,722.54
%Growth 2021-22/ 2020-21	65.73	76.76
%Growth 2021-22/ 2019-20	53.73	22.46
TRADE BALANCE
2019-20	-83,494.80	-7,05,159.62
2020-21	-67,239.33	-2,64,913.29
2021-22	-1,47,775.94	-7,25,618.04

SERVICES TRADE

EXPORTS & IMPORTS (SERVICES) : (US $ Billion)
(PROVISIONAL)	September 2021	April- September 2021
EXPORTS (Receipts)	20.68	114.99
IMPORTS (Payments)	12.21	65.20
TRADE BALANCE	8.47	49.80
EXPORTS & IMPORTS (SERVICES): (Rs. Crore)
(PROVISIONAL)	September 2021	April- September 2021
EXPORTS (Receipts)	1,52,129.11	8,50,038.34
IMPORTS (Payments)	89,850.34	4,81,952.26
TRADE BALANCE	62,278.77	3,68,086.08
Source: RBI Press Release dated 1stNovember 2021

*Link for quick estimates

Trade balance deterioration in October driven by import surge despite export growth, with services estimates subject to revision. October 2021 provisional estimates show exports rising but imports rising faster, driven by sharp increases in oil and non-oil imports; services figures for October are estimated and will be revised when RBI releases data. The result is a substantially wider merchandise and overall trade deficit for October, and April-October cumulative data indicate exports up year-on-year while imports have grown at a higher pace. Commodity-level breakdowns identify major export gains and declines, and the release notes pro rata revisions to historical series and provision of rupee values alongside dollar estimates.