The Fifteenth Finance Commission (XVFC) had virtual meetings with its Advisory Council on 25th and 26th June, 2020 and discussed various issues confronting the Commission now. The meeting, chaired by Shri N. K. Singh, Chairman XVFC was attended by all members and senior officials of the Commission. From the Advisory Council, Dr. Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Dr. Sajjid Z Chinoy, Dr. Prachi Mishra, Mr. Neelkanth Mishra and Dr. Omkar Goswami and special invitee Dr. Rathin Roy attended the meeting on 25th June, 2020. Dr. Arvind Virmani, Dr. D K Srivastava, Dr. M Govinda Rao and Dr. Sudipto Mundle from the Advisory Council, along with Dr. Shankar Acharya and Dr. Pronab Sen, attended the meeting on 26th June 2020. These were the third set of meetings with the Advisory Council, after the submission of the Report of the XVFC for the year 2020-21 and second such meeting since the onset of national lockdown due to Coid-19 pandemic.

The Members of the Advisory Council felt that since they had met the Commission in April, national lockdown was further extended till end of May and now restrictions are being lifted in phased manner resulting in gradual resumption of economic activities. However, the impact of the pandemic on the economy and on the fiscal positions of the Union and State Governments is still highly uncertain. Many analysts and think-tanks have reduced their GDP growth projections for 2020-21. Due to ongoing social distancing measures in place and local level restrictions in many places, supply chains are not yet fully restored, which affects recovery process.

The Advisory Council also discussed the adverse implications of constraints in the economy on tax revenue collections of the Union and State Governments.  While noting that tax collections can be considerably affected by the pandemic, some Members of the Council indicated the impact of the pandemic on tax collections may also be asymmetric.

Implications on the deficits and debt of the general government was discussed, along with constraints and possibilities for establishing a path for consolidation of public debt, post the pandemic. On the expenditure side, Governments will have substantial expenditure burden on account of health, support to poor and other economic agents.

The Members of the Advisory Council expressed that there is massive uncertainty going forward and appreciated the tall challenges for the Commission in designing fiscal transfers for the five-year period. The Commission along with the Advisory Council will be closely monitoring emerging indications on the economic and fiscal front as they become available, in order to make the best possible assessment.

Fiscal transfers face uncertainty as the pandemic disrupts tax revenues, expenditure burdens and prospects for public debt consolidation. The Advisory Council reviewed pandemic effects on Union and State fiscal positions, highlighting uncertainty in GDP growth, asymmetric reductions in tax revenue due to disrupted supply chains, and resultant pressures on deficits and general government debt. Members emphasised expenditure burdens from health and social support and discussed constraints and options for establishing a path for public debt consolidation, stressing the challenge of designing equitable fiscal transfers and the need for ongoing monitoring of economic and fiscal indicators to inform assessments.