The Reserve Bank of India as on 10-6-2011 released the June Issue of its RBI Bulletin.

June issue of the Bulletin carries four special articles:

1. India’s Foreign Trade, 2010-11 (April-March)
2. Inflation Expectations Survey of Households: March 2011 (Round 23)
3. Quarterly Industrial Outlook Survey: January-March 2011 - (Round 53)
4. Survey on Computer Software and Information Technology Services Exports: 2009-10.

Highlights of the special articles are:

1. India’s Foreign Trade, 2010-11 (April-March):

Exports maintain Growth Momentum

The article reviews the performance of India’s merchandise trade during 2010-11 on the basis of data released by Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S). The article also covers disaggregated commodity-wise and direction-wise analysis of India’s trade during 2010-11 (April-December).

Main Findings

• During 2010-11 (April-March), India’s merchandise exports at US$ 245.6 billion recorded a growth of 37.8 per cent over the corresponding period of previous year as against a decline of 2.5 per cent during 2009-10.
• Merchandise imports at US$ 350.5 billion registered an increase of 21.9 per cent (as against a decline of 3.8 per cent a year ago).
• On a monthly basis, exports maintained the growth momentum in the recent months while imports generally showed deceleration barring decline during December 2010, partly on account of base effect.
• The oil and non-oil imports registered growth rates of 16.7 per cent and 24.2 per cent in 2010-11 as against declines of 7.0 per cent and 2.4 per cent, respectively, during the corresponding period of the preceding year.
• The disaggregated data on commodity-wise merchandise export reveal that during 2010-11 (April-December) items, such as, engineering goods, petroleum products, agriculture and allied products, and gems and jewellery contributed the most to the overall growth in exports.
• Destination-wise, exports have diversified towards developing countries.

2. Inflation Expectations Survey of Households: March 2011 (Round 23)

Households expect inflation to rise in April-June Quarter

The article presents the findings of Inflation Expectations Survey of Households conducted in the January–March 2011 quarter, the 23rd round in the series. The survey capturesthe inflation expectationsof 4000 urban households across 12 cities for the next quarter (April-June 2011) and for the next year (April 2011-March 2012).

 The inflation survey represents the inflation expectations of 4,000 urban households based on their individual consumption baskets. The rates predicted in the Survey, therefore, should not be considered as RBI predictions of inflation. The households’ inflation expectations provide useful directional information on near-term inflationary pressures and also supplement other economic indicators.

Main Findings

• Households expect inflation to rise further by 40 and 120 basis points during next quarter (11.9 per cent) and next year (12.7 per cent), respectively, from the perceived current rate of 11.5 per cent.
• Households' expectations of general price rise were mainly influenced by movements in food prices. The percentage of respondents expecting price rise have gone down for all product groups (namely, general prices, food products, non-food, household durables, housing and services).
• Daily-wage workers and housewives expected higher inflation rates compared to other categories. Across cities, Bangalore registered the highest inflation expectations and Patna the lowest.

3.Quarterly Industrial Outlook Survey: January-March 2011 (Round 53)

Moderation of Business Conditions

The article presents the survey findings of the 53rd round of the Industrial Outlook Survey. The Survey was conducted for January-March 2011 quarter and gives the assessment of business situation of companies in manufacturing sector, for the quarter January-March-2011, and their expectations for the ensuing quarter April-June 2011.

Main Findings

• The survey results signal moderation of business conditions in the Indian manufacturing sector for assessment quarter as well as expectation quarter.
• The Business Expectation Index – a measure that gives a single snapshot of the industrial outlook in each study quarter – declined marginally from 122.8 to 122.0 for assessment quarter and more visibly from 125.9 to 121.9 for the expectation quarter; however, it has still remained much higher than 100 which is the threshold that separates contraction from expansion.

4. Survey on Computer Software and Information Technology Services Exports: 2009-10

Software Exports stable; US Dollar Major Invoicing Currency 

The article presents the results of the annual comprehensive survey for 2009-10 and the quarterly sample survey for the first three quarters of 2009-10 on exports of software and IT services. The survey is conducted by the Reserve Bank of India to assess various aspects of software services exports. In all, 890 companies, including many of the major companies, responded to the survey which covered nearly 83 per cent of the total software exports during 2009-10.

Main Findings

• The share of software services exports from India remained at around 23-24 per cent of total global software services exports in first three quarters of 2009-10 and increased to 30 per cent in the last quarter.
• Total software services exports (computer services and ITES/BPO services exports) of India during 2009-10 was estimated at ` 1,83,692 crore (US$ 38.7 billion), of which computer services exports accounted for nearly 69 per cent.
• Public limited companies, which were about 7 per cent of the respondent companies for the annual survey, accounted for around 58 per cent of India’s exports of software services.
• Delivery of software services exports through off-site mode increased by  19 per cent in 2009-10 and accounted for around 78 per cent of the total software exports. On the other hand, on-site mode delivery declined by 14 per cent and its share in total software exports reduced to 22 per cent.
• With 61 per cent share in India’s total software exports in 2009-10, USA remained the major destination for software exports. The European countries accounted for 26.5 per cent share, of which UK alone accounted for 12.4 per cent. The US Dollar, with 76 per cent share, was the major currency for invoicing software exports.

J. D. Desai
Assistant Manager

Press Release : 2010-2011/1794

Inflation expectations show households foresee rising prices, signaling near term inflationary pressure and sectoral implications. RBI's June Bulletin contains four special articles: a review of merchandise trade in 2010-11 showing strong export growth, divergent oil and non oil import trends, commodity and destination disaggregation; an Inflation Expectations Survey of 4,000 urban households indicating anticipated price rises driven by food and differing by demographic groups; a Quarterly Industrial Outlook reporting moderation in business conditions via a lower Business Expectation Index; and a software and IT services export survey showing stable global share, US dominance as destination and invoicing currency, and increased off site delivery.