New Delhi, Sep 6 (PTI) India has emerged as a crucial source of diesel for Europe, supplying about 60 per cent of the fuel transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb to the region in August, as Russian exports remain severely constrained and US shipments begin to weaken, according to data from Vortexa - real-time data and advanced analytics for energy and freight.

About 2,00,000 barrels per day of diesel (gasoil) transited the Bab-el-Mandeb in August on vessels bound for Europe, close to year-earlier levels after flows through the key shipping route nearly stalled in March and April. India supplied roughly 60 per cent of that volume, making Indian refineries an increasingly important source of Europe's eastern diesel supply, Vortexa said in a report.

India is the world's fourth-largest refiner, with an installed capacity of 258.1 million tonnes per annum, which exceeds domestic fuel demand by a margin.

In 2025-26 (April 2025 to March 2026 fiscal year), India exported 61.5 million tonnes of petroleum products, making it one of the largest exporters of refined products globally. These fuels are now finding a market in Europe and Russia.

The concern is whether that flow can be maintained. Crude and condensate shipments into India fell for a second consecutive month to about 3.8 million barrels per day in August, compared to 4.8 million barrels per day a year earlier, Vortexa data showed.

Russian diesel exports, once a major source of European supply, have remained largely absent. Russia's seaborne diesel and gasoil exports averaged only about 1,50,000 barrels per day in the first 25 days of August, down about 6,10,000 barrels per day from a year earlier and 81 per cent below the five-year seasonal average, according to Vortexa.

Even a lifting or partial relaxation of Russia's diesel export ban from September 1 may not produce a rapid recovery. Ukrainian drone strikes have continued to disrupt Russian refining and export infrastructure, with 32 attacks on refineries recorded across July and August. An attack on the 2,60,000-barrel-per-day Perm refinery left only about 28 per cent of its crude distillation capacity operational, according to data cited by Vortexa.

The impact extends to export terminals. The Black Sea accounted for about 44 per cent, or 380,000 barrels per day, of Russia's diesel and gasoil exports last year, but port and refinery disruptions have reduced available volumes. No diesel cargoes have been exported from Tuapse since a May strike, according to Vortexa.

The port handled about 90,000 barrels per day, or roughly 10 per cent of Russia's total diesel exports, in 2025.

Russia is also increasingly turning to imports to compensate for domestic refining disruptions. Its seaborne gasoline imports surged to a record roughly 1,25,000 barrels per day in August, equivalent to about 4,70,000 tonnes for the month. Around 55 per cent of those imports arrived on sanctioned tonnage, while India, Turkey and Morocco were among the suppliers.

Indian gasoline (petrol) cargoes to Russia in August were carried on sanctioned fleets and involved ship-to-ship transfers in the Mediterranean, highlighting how flows of refined products in and out of the region are being reshaped by sanctions, refinery outages and disruptions to conventional trade routes.

For Europe, however, India's role is most important on the diesel side. The country is filling part of the gap left by Russia at a time when the US, Europe's other major source of incremental supply, is also showing signs of retreat.

The US supplied about half of Europe's seaborne diesel imports from outside the region in August, or around 5,20,000 barrels per day, compared to about a quarter a year earlier. But shipments to Europe peaked at almost 5,40,000 barrels per day in the first half of August before falling to about 3,50,000 barrels per day in the second half, a decline of roughly 35 per cent.

That leaves Europe increasingly dependent on Indian refiners to maintain eastern supply routes just as crude availability in India is tightening.

The Strait of Hormuz is offering limited relief to the clean-products market. Only 37 crossings by MR2-sized, or larger tankers carrying clean products, were recorded during the first 27 days of August, down from 55 in July and 69 in June.

Ship-to-ship transfers offshore Oman have continued, but most of the activity involves crude rather than refined products. About 2,30,000 barrels per day of clean products originating west of Hormuz were transferred via ship-to-ship operations offshore Oman in the first three weeks of August, down from about 4,00,000 barrels per day during the same period in June.

The result is an increasingly concentrated European diesel supply chain.

Russian exports remain depressed despite the scheduled end of the current diesel ban, US shipments have started to decline, and the Hormuz route is providing little additional product supply. India is consequently carrying a growing share of the burden, according to Vortexa.

Europe is approaching its peak winter diesel-demand period with inventories already low and refineries on both sides of the Atlantic facing autumn maintenance after running at elevated rates. That leaves limited room for supply disruptions. PTI ANZ BAL BAL