May 29, 2026
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Macroeconomic resilience and inflation risks shape RBI's outlook amid West Asia tensions, monsoon dependence and El Nino concerns.
India's growth outlook remains supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, private consumption, investment and public capital expenditure, even though the economy may face near-term headwinds from the West Asia conflict, elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions, financial market volatility, uncertainty in global trade policies and weather-related disruptions. The agriculture sector remains dependent on the south-west monsoon, and El Nino conditions create downside risks to output. Inflation is expected to remain broadly aligned with target, though upside risks may arise from global fuel and commodity prices, input and wage costs, and exchange-rate volatility.