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    Oil prices soar and stock prices fall as US-Israel war with Iran rattles markets
    India's manufacturing sector activity growth jumps to 4-month high in Feb: PMI
    Arkel invests RS.100 Cr in Phase 1, Opens Advanced Lift Control Manufacturing Facility
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March 2, 2026
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Oil supply disruption risk drives markets as geopolitical attacks push energy prices up and equities downward.
Attacks on Iran caused equity declines and sharp rises in oil and gold as traders priced in disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz; sustained interruptions to Iranian exports and regional shipping could tighten global supply, elevate fuel and production costs, affect major importers' sourcing strategies, and influence inflation dynamics and central bank rate decisions.
March 2, 2026
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Manufacturing activity growth driven by stronger domestic demand despite slower export orders, prompting higher input buying and hiring.
Manufacturing activity accelerated to a four-month high as stronger domestic demand supported faster output growth and higher new business intakes; firms increased input purchasing, inventories and hiring. New export orders continued to slow, somewhat constraining employment creation. Cost pressures remained moderate, and forward-looking sentiment was positive with many manufacturers expecting higher output over the year ahead.
March 2, 2026
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Compliance with IS-17900 drives local manufacturing of advanced lift control systems, reducing import dependence and strengthening supply chains.
A Phase 1 manufacturing facility invests in local production of advanced lift electronic control systems designed to comply with IS-17900, reduce import dependency, and enable component to finished product localisation. The plant will operate automated PCB and semi automatic panel lines to produce MR, MRL and Slim Panels, emphasise controlled environment quality, IoT features, and support supply chain resilience and national industrial policy objectives under the Make in India framework.
March 2, 2026
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Reservation policy implementation strengthened across public financial institutions to improve accessibility and uniform compliance measures.
Strengthening institutional capacity for uniform implementation of the Government of India's reservation policy across public financial institutions and enhancing accessibility for Persons with Disabilities were the primary objectives. The programme combined a Sugamya Bharat sensitisation session on accessibility standards and compliance requirements, a roundtable on legal provisions and practical challenges, exchange of best practices, and an interactive question-and-answer session to identify operational measures for inclusivity, accessibility and reservation policy compliance.
March 2, 2026
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Deferred Customs Duty payment enables qualified manufacturers to clear imports and pay duties monthly, subject to compliance and eligibility.
A Deferred Customs Duty payment facility allows Eligible Manufacturer Importers to clear imports without immediate duty payment and to pay applicable customs duties monthly under the Deferred Payment of Import Duty Rules, 2016, subject to prescribed Customs and GST compliance, turnover, financial standing and track record; existing AEO T1 entities meeting eligibility may participate and applications are to be submitted via the AEO portal.
March 2, 2026
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Energy supply disruption risks trigger global market selloff and safe-haven flows, lifting oil and gold while bond yields fall.
Global markets moved to risk-off after US and Israeli attacks on Iran: equities opened lower while gold and government bonds rallied and oil prices surged on fears that strikes and incidents in the Strait of Hormuz could restrict oil and LNG exports, raising the prospect of higher energy and production costs; higher-than-expected wholesale inflation readings were identified as a factor that may affect the central bank's timing for interest-rate cuts.
March 2, 2026
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Rupee depreciation driven by crude price surge, dollar strength and foreign fund outflows pressures local currency lower.
Rupee depreciation in early trade reflected external pressures-higher crude prices, a stronger US dollar, and escalated Middle East tensions-compounded by negative domestic equity sentiment and significant foreign institutional outflows. Market indicators included a firmer dollar index, rising Brent crude futures, and a recent dip in forex reserves, while analysts warned of increased import bill risk due to India's reliance on fuel imports.
March 2, 2026
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Energy supply disruption threatens global oil flows, driving sharp price increases and straining fuel and goods markets worldwide.
Attacks and retaliatory strikes in the Middle East disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz and regional export infrastructure, triggering sharp crude price rises and heightened risk of sustained supply constraints; OPEC+ announced production increases, but analysts stress that constrained export routes limit the immediate effectiveness of added output.
March 2, 2026
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Maritime chokepoint security threatened, risking oil export disruptions and limiting the relief from increased production.
Attacks and military strikes in the Middle East disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, risking restrictions on regional crude exports and driving upward pressure on oil and gasoline prices. Because the strait is a critical global oil chokepoint, market concerns focus on whether barrels can physically move; consequently, OPEC+ announcements of increased production may provide limited immediate relief if export routes remain constrained.
March 2, 2026
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Oil supply security: production increases meet limited relief when export routes through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted.
OPEC+ announced an April increase in crude production intended to augment available supply while regional military attacks and disruptions to tanker movements - particularly through the Strait of Hormuz - threaten export routes. The notice underscores that interruptions to transit can limit the relief additional output provides and that access to export channels will be decisive for near-term market stability and price direction.
March 1, 2026
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Energy security measures cushion supply shocks but elevate price volatility and macroeconomic pressures for oil importers.
Escalating tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz create near-term energy security risks for India manifested chiefly as price volatility and macroeconomic pressure rather than immediate physical shortages. Layered inventory buffers - commercial stocks, in transit cargoes and Strategic Petroleum Reserves - combined with diversified sourcing options (including Atlantic suppliers and Russian optionality) reduce the likelihood of sustained supply disruption, though longer transit times and LNG contractual rigidity limit rapid substitution and increase vulnerability to prolonged closures.
March 1, 2026
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GST revenue growth signals strengthened tax receipts driven by import collections and improved domestic sales affecting fiscal enforcement.
A court ordered continued judicial custody for eight alleged Lashkar-e-Taiba operatives accused of illegal entry and procuring forged identity documents while another court directed the immediate release of 14 student protesters arrested after a campus demonstration. Separately, gross Goods and Services Tax collections rose year-on-year, led by higher import receipts and improved domestic sales, reflecting stronger enforcement and compliance dynamics within the indirect tax regime.
March 1, 2026
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SGST growth reflects strengthened tax administration and compliance following GST rate rationalisation, bolstering state revenues.
Haryana reports marked year on year expansion in State Goods and Services Tax (SGST) receipts for 2025-26, attributing the improvement to strengthened tax administration, enhanced compliance stemming from departmental reforms and better tax analysis, facilitation via district GST Suvidha Kendras, and the GST Council's September 2025 rate rationalisation as complementary drivers of revenue growth.
March 1, 2026
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GST revenue growth maintained despite rate reductions; enhanced compliance and AI-driven analytics strengthened state collections effectively.
Andhra Pradesh achieves record net Goods and Services Tax receipts for February, with SGST and IGST growth offsetting marginal gross GST decline. Revenue momentum is supported by higher professional tax and petroleum VAT receipts. The state credits strengthened compliance-targeted audits, stricter return filing, coordinated IGST settlements, and performance based officer deployment-and advanced data analytics and AI oversight that detect evasion and reverse ineligible input tax credit claims for measurable recoveries.
March 1, 2026
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Shipping risk allocation: exporters urged to avoid CIF and prefer FOB as geopolitical risks raise freight and insurance exposure.
Advises exporters to avoid new Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) commitments to Iran and Gulf destinations and to conclude sales on Free-On-Board (FOB) terms where feasible so freight, insurance and related risks rest with the buyer. Notes that West Asia instability may sharply increase bunker prices, disrupt vessel availability, raise freight and insurance premiums, and produce price volatility; urges restraint, avoidance of open-ended unhedged positions, and monitoring of consignments in transit or awaiting clearance.
March 1, 2026
Show AI Summary
GST rate restructuring boosts revenues as import and domestic consumption support post cut recovery in collections.
GST collections rose year on year following a statutory GST rate restructuring that reduced rates on numerous items and consolidated slabs; import revenue and domestic consumption supported recovery after an initial post cut dip. The pattern includes higher refunds, lower cess receipts, and divergent state level growth, raising considerations for revenue forecasting, state fiscal impacts, and the operational stability of the restructured indirect tax framework.
March 1, 2026
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Export disruptions to Iran risk shipment halts and payment delays for rice exporters amid regional conflict.
Shipments to Iran and consignments to Afghanistan via Bandar Abbas have been held up following military strikes, causing immediate shipment disruptions and likely payment delays until the security situation improves; exporters warn the impact depends on conflict duration and note heightened commercial risk from lack of war-risk insurance for vessels.
March 1, 2026
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Goods and Services Tax collections rose driven by import revenue growth, with higher refunds and lower cess receipts.
Gross collections under the Goods and Services Tax increased year on year, driven mainly by a stronger rise in import related GST receipts; domestic GST rose more modestly. Total refunds increased, and net GST receipts were higher year on year, while cess receipts declined markedly compared with the prior year period.
March 1, 2026
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Energy supply resilience mitigates immediate oil disruption risk, though prolonged Hormuz closure heightens price and supply concerns.
India's layered inventory buffers - commercial stocks, in-transit crude and strategic petroleum reserves - and full refinery tanks reduce the likelihood of immediate physical disruption from a short-term Strait of Hormuz closure, shifting the principal near-term impact to price, freight and insurance volatility; prolonged closure would more severely affect LNG and LPG due to contract rigidity and transit dependence, prompting reliance on diversified sourcing, Russian optionality, longer transit planning and strategic reserve drawdowns.
March 1, 2026
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Bail parity: Former CMO official released after court found investigation substantially complete and parity with other accused.
The court evaluated bail petitions in parallel Economic Offences Wing and Enforcement Directorate inquiries alleging a syndicate diverted liquor to government shops and laundered proceeds; it found the investigation substantially complete, trial unlikely to conclude soon, and that continued detention would not serve justice. Prosecution relied on asserted digital communications and co-accused statements alleging supervisory role and receipt/handling of proceeds; defence disputed incriminating material, reliance on statements, selective arrests and urged parity and repeated prior incarcerations. The court held evidentiary weight requires trial testing and noted parity with other released accused.

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Customs & Trade

China's exports surge in Jan-Feb despite waning trade with US

March 10, 2026

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Hong Kong, Mar 10 (AP) China's exports jumped nearly 22% in the first two months of the year from a year earlier, powered by a surge in shipments of computer chips, autos and electronics.

The export figures released by China's customs agency on Tuesday were much better than economists had forecast. They far exceeded the 6.6% annual pace of growth recorded in December.

Shipments to the US fell 11% in January and February, narrowing from a 30% drop in December. Exports to the European Union increased almost 28% while those to Latin America climbed 16%.

Exports to the rest of Asia, including Japan and India, also were sharply higher.

China's exports have been a bright spot for its economy despite tensions with the US. Chinese exports climbed 5.5% for 2025 as its trade surplus surged to a record of nearly $1.2 trillion. Higher shipments to other regions have helped offset weaker exports to the US after President Donald Trump imposed a variety of higher tariffs on imports from many countries.

The boom in use of artificial intelligence is driving strong demand for computer chips of all kinds.

China's exports of semiconductors by value soared nearly 73% in the first two months of the year, partly also lifted by higher prices as the world faces a memory chip shortage. Its exports of autos rose 67% and mechanical and electrical items rose 27%.

Trump's planned visit to Beijing at the end of March is being closely watched for a possible extension of a trade truce between the two countries reached in October last year, which could be positive news for Chinese exports to the US.

A recent US Supreme Court ruling against Trump's sweeping tariffs has already resulted in lower tariffs for countries including China.

“While the recent pace of gains is unlikely to be sustained, exports are likely to remain robust given the recent decline in US tariffs and strong demand for semiconductors,” Zichun Huang, a China economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.

China's total imports in January and February rose almost 20%, up from December's 5.7% year-on-year increase. However, its imports from the United States dropped nearly 27% from a year earlier.

China's global trade surplus in January-February was $213.6 billion. Trade data is typically combined for January to February each year to help even out seasonal impacts from the Lunar New Year festival, the biggest holiday of the year.

A slowing domestic economy fuelled by a yearslong property sector downturn has been weighing on the world's second largest economy. Last week, Chinese leaders announced an economic growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, the lowest since 1991.

The war in the Middle East has raised uncertainty over the outlook for trade and for China's own energy security.

An effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for much of the world's trade in oil and gas, may restrict China's access to relatively cheap Iranian oil and also impede its broader commerce with the region.

For China, export competitiveness is paramount, said Han Lin, China Country Director at consultancy The Asia Group. “Energy inflation is the last thing Beijing policymakers need," he said.

If the war drags on, a surge in oil prices fuelling global inflation could also weaken consumption abroad, potentially hurting overseas demand for Chinese goods, said Daniel Russel, a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. (AP) SCY SCY

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