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<h1>Domestic demand and credit-led growth without productivity or export gains weakens currency and raises capital cost risk premia.</h1> Reliance on domestic demand and credit-enabled consumption without commensurate productivity and export gains raises near-term activity but does not materially strengthen surplus formation and, in a structurally savings-short setting, tends to sustain a weaker currency and elevate rollover risk premia in domestic capital costs; durable reduction in the cost of capital therefore requires higher productivity, manufacturing competitiveness, sustained export growth, and a transition to structural savings strength, with financial deepening supporting but not substituting for these real-sector changes.