Mumbai, Dec 27 (PTI) The January 15 Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation poll is expected to be a fight for hegemony for the BJP, one of bragging rights for the two Shiv Sena factions under Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde as well as that of survival for the Congress, once a dominant force in the country's financial capital.

The BJP, for long the junior partner of the undivided Shiv Sena, has seen explosive growth in the city, turning from a party that had the support of the trading classes to one that deployed meticulous demographic engineering to widen its vote base among most communities since 2014, as per analysts.

In the 2017 civic polls, its tally of 82 was just two short of the undivided Shiv Sena's 84, with the Congress was a distant third with 31. It also signalled that the Shiv Sena's undisputed supremacy in the metropolis for over two decades was within striking range of the Bharatiya Janata Party.

The BJP's growth has been anchored by three primary pillars, namely mega infrastructure projects, its reaching out to various communities to tide over Marathi-centric politics, as well as a micro-management mechanism at the booth level that now surpasses in many areas the famed 'shakha' system of the old Shiv Sena, these analysts said.

A BJP leader said the party's rise has coincided with the steady erosion of the Shiva Sena's base over the years mainly due to the city becoming increasingly cosmopolitan, with the biggest hit coming from the June 2022 split of the Bal Thackeray-founded party. The Sharad Pawar-founded NCP too split in July 2023.

The BJP, by aligning with Shinde's Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP, has gained access to local leadership networks while simultaneously weakening its rivals. a political analyst pointed out.

The BJP has now set a target of contesting and winning around 150 seats in the 2027-member BMC on the back of its stellar performance in the 2024 assembly polls.

Brushing aside any impact of the alliance announced on December 24 between Uddhav and Raj Thackeray for the BMC polls after almost two decades, the BJP leader said the Shiv Sena (UBT) leader has lost the right to talk about the "Marathi manoos" after aligning with the Congress to become CM in 2019.

"The Sanyukta Maharashtra movement with Mumbai as the capital of a Marathi speaking state was against the Congress. The Shiv Sena was no where in the picture at that time," he pointed out.

The Shiv Sena once dominated the city's political landscape, thanks to the "shakha" system giving it tremendous street power and Bal Thackeray's fiery oratory helping the party find a fanatical following for its sons-of-the-soil agenda.

The split in the Sena means both factions are playing catch up with the BJP's electoral machine amid the weakening of hyper-local Marathi identity politics and the steady stream of migrants, who seem to be drifting towards the BJP's development-focused, pan-Indian nationalism coupled with the charisma of Narendra Modi.

Raj Thackeray has already declared that the next Mayor of Mumbai "will be a Marathi and will be ours", signalling a return to high-decibel identity politics to counter the BJP's development-centric narrative. Whether it works out and gives a breather to Uddhav Thackeray after drubbings in the assembly and municipal council polls remains to be seen.

The Mahayuti swept the first phase of local body polls, results of which were declared on December 21, winning 207 of 288 municipal councils. The BJP led by bagging 117 council president posts.

The Congress, which has decided to contest on its own in Mumbai and not as part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi, has seen better days. The party, which once boasted of a diverse coalition of Dalits, Muslims, and the North Indian working class, has seen its base splinter.

The Congress' decline can attributed to chronic leadership vacuums and internal friction, a political analyst said.

"The Mumbai Regional Congress Committee (MRCC) has been plagued by factionalism, leaving the rank and file demoralised. The decision to go solo is a desperate attempt to reclaim its identity," he said.

However, some critics said the move may be "suicidal" for the party and could further fragment the anti-BJP vote.

"Mumbai has never been a stronghold of the Congress despite having a good support base. Its state leadership allowed the Shiv Sena to prosper politically in Mumbai over the years. The last time the Congress did well was in 1992 when its tally was in three-digits and in 2002 when it got 75 seats," the analyst said.

The January 15 polls will be a contest between the BJP's vision of a 'Global Mumbai' and the Thackeray brothers' appeal centring on 'Marathi pride'.

For the BJP, winning the Mumbai civic polls is like the 'final frontier' in Maharashtra, whereas for Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde, it is about being seen as the rightful heir to the legacy of Bal Thackeray.

The polls will also give an insight into whether the Marathi pride agenda, one of the oldest political themes in the country's financial capital and its premier migrant magnet, can strike a chord among voters again, analysts feel.

With the Shiv Sena having lost strength due to the split, and the Congress not as formidable as it once was, BJP, as per analysts, is in pole position ahead of polls, results of which will be declared on January 16. PTI MR BNM