Kolkata, Dec 19 (PTI) The Election Commission's draft rolls in West Bengal and the impending second phase of verification hearings under SIR have unsettled the BJP’s Matua vote base ahead of the 2026 assembly polls, injecting uncertainty into 40 to 50 seats the party has relied on since 2019.

For the Matuas, a Dalit Hindu refugee community that migrated from Bangladesh over decades following religious persecution, the first statewide Special Intensive Revision (SIR) since 2002 has created anxieties among voters over identity and citizenship.

With a decisive presence across North 24 Parganas, Nadia and parts of South 24 Parganas, the community now finds itself at the centre of an electoral churn with potential consequences for the 2026 assembly polls.

But the draft electoral rolls under SIR have triggered apprehension among Matua families, many of whom fear that the second phase of hearings could expose gaps in documentation and result in the loss of voting rights.

Statewide, 58,20,898 names have been excluded from the draft rolls, reducing West Bengal’s electorate from 7.66 crore to 7.08 crore.

EC data also show around 1.36 crore entries flagged for logical discrepancies, and nearly 30 lakh voters categorised as unmapped, taking the number of voters who may be called for hearings to around 1.66 crore.

Matua leaders across party lines claimed a major share of these voters belong to the community.

“In the next phase, such voters may be summoned for verification and asked to produce one of the prescribed documents. However, many Matua families, owing to displacement, migration and lack of formal records, do not possess even a single such document," said Mahitosh Baidya, general secretary of the All India Matua Mahasangha.

The anxiety has been compounded, he said, by the non-recognition of Citizenship Amendment Act certificates or even CAA application forms during voter verification.

Though 60,000 to 70,000 CAA applications have reportedly been filed, only 10,000 to 15,000 certificates have been issued so far, leaving thousands in limbo, he claimed.

In Thakurnagar, the spiritual and political centre of the Matua movement, uncertainty over the draft rolls and hearings has become talk of the town. “In 2002, my parents and grandparents were not on the voter list. We came from across the border. Now we are being asked for documents. What will we show?” said a Matua voter there.

Most Matua electors possess Aadhaar and voter identity cards, but fear these may prove insufficient if additional proof of residence or parental linkage is sought.

EC officials have said that voters labelled unmapped will be given an opportunity to be heard, with hearings scheduled till January 15 and the final rolls to be published on February 14.

The BJP’s rise in Bengal since 2019 has been closely linked to its consolidation of Matua support, largely on the back of its promise to grant citizenship under the CAA. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and the 2021 assembly elections, the party made deep inroads into Matua-majority belts, dislodging the TMC.

In the Matua-dominated Bongaon Lok Sabha seat in 2024, the BJP led in six of seven assembly segments, with the TMC ahead in one. A similar pattern played out in Ranaghat, another Matua-influenced constituency.

Across West Bengal, the Matua vote is considered decisive in at least 50 assembly seats, including 30 reserved ones in Nadia, North and South 24 Parganas districts.

Political assessments suggest that up to half the voters in assembly segments under the Bongaon and Ranaghat Lok Sabha seats could be affected if Matua electors fail to establish eligibility during the second phase of SIR.

Data indicate that Matua-majority areas account for the highest concentration of unmapped voters.

In parts of Nadia, nearly two lakh of 2.5 lakh voters were reported to be unmapped. Such electors in North 24 Parganas account for 14.5 per cent in Gaighata, 13.6 per cent in Habra, 12.7 per cent in Bagda and over 11 per cent in Bongaon North.

Nearly three lakh voter deletions have been reported from 13 assembly seats, where Matuas are nearly 75 per cent of the electorate, in North 24 Parganas and Nadia districts.

By contrast, minority-dominated districts such as Murshidabad show significantly lower proportions of unmapped voters, typically below three per cent.

TMC Rajya Sabha MP Mamatabala Thakur, who heads the TMC-backed faction of the All India Matua Mahasangha, said nearly 75 per cent of those who will be summoned for hearings are Matuas.

“Those who came after 2002 lack documents and will lose voting rights,” she said, adding that many had supported the BJP believing its citizenship promise.

BJP spokesperson Ritesh Tiwari alleged that fear was being spread deliberately.

BJP MLA and senior Matua leader Subrata Thakur said confusion was being created over claims that linkage to the 2002 electoral rolls was mandatory, asserting that Aadhaar, along with one supporting document, will be sufficient.

A senior BJP leader from the Matua heartland, speaking on condition of anonymity, conceded that the party risks losing its electoral edge if large numbers of its core voters are unable to vote.

Political analyst Maidul Islam said the SIR could end up hurting the BJP more than helping it.

"The party’s narrative of one crore infiltrators has collapsed with EC data showing around 1.83 lakh ghost voters, while lakhs of Matua voters and sections of Hindi-speaking BJP supporters risk deletion due to duplication," he said. PTI PNT BDC