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<h1>Nominal GDP shortfall risk as benign inflation and GST rate cuts curb price growth, while tariffs threaten exports.</h1> Benign inflation from a good kharif harvest and GST rate reductions may cause a nominal GDP shortfall versus Budget assumptions, while policy measures and contained inflation support meeting the targeted real GDP growth; the GST overhaul will affect both B2C and B2B transmission, and higher external tariffs present a downside risk to export-led momentum.