<h1>E-commerce GMV to exceed ?1.15 lakh crore before Diwali 2025; dual-peak demand from GST tweaks forces two-wave planning</h1> A strategy consultancy's forecast projects e-commerce gross merchandise value during the 30-35 days before Diwali 2025 to exceed ?1.15 lakh crore, growing 20-25% year-on-year, driven by macro tailwinds and new retail models. Anticipated GST slab simplification around Diwali may create a dual-peak demand curve as consumers defer high-ticket purchases, obligating platforms and brands to plan for two demand waves. Quick commerce and value commerce are expected to expand rapidly, reshaping category dynamics-grocery, fashion, beauty, home, and electronics-with implications for inventory, pricing, contract terms with sellers, and regulatory compliance around taxation and consumer protection.