<h1>Central bank warns 50% trading partner tariff risks demand; rating upgrade, good monsoon, rural wages may support recovery</h1> The central bank warned that a 50% tariff imposed by a major trading partner creates downside risk to aggregate demand in the country, even as a sovereign rating upgrade by an international ratings agency is expected to support capital inflows and sovereign yields. Favorable monsoon conditions and rising real rural wages may bolster rural demand, while muted food pressures have softened near-term inflation below target levels. Monetary policy will remain data-dependent, monitoring growth-inflation dynamics, ongoing rate cut transmission, fiscal support, and financial conditions to determine the appropriate policy path.