<h1>Oil supply disruption may not yet raise pump prices sharply due to spare capacity and strategic reserves limiting immediate shortages.</h1> Geopolitical hostilities between Israel and Iran create risk to energy supplies but spare production capacity, international emergency reserves, and unsold Iranian cargoes currently mitigate immediate price spikes. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz or sustained attacks would raise shipping and insurance costs and force use of alternative routes, transmitting higher wholesale and retail fuel prices. Sluggish demand and constrained central-bank options due to inflationary pressures further condition the macroeconomic impact; escalation would remove current buffers and amplify cost-of-living effects.