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    August 5, 2026
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    Foreign exchange stability measures support the rupee as policy continuity, capital inflows and global risk sentiment shape currency expectations.
    Foreign exchange market movement reflected a rupee appreciation against the US dollar following the monetary policy decision to retain the repo rate and neutral stance. Market sentiment was supported by softer crude oil prices, weakness in the US dollar, lower US Treasury yields and foreign equity inflows. The monetary policy framework sought to support capital inflows and maintain an orderly rupee trajectory, with geopolitical developments and US economic data remaining relevant to near-term exchange-rate expectations.
    August 5, 2026
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    Money-laundering investigation examines alleged proceeds from chit fund operations following searches linked to a former company managing director.
    A money-laundering investigation concerns alleged proceeds of crime arising from a multi-state chit fund operation associated with Welfare Building and Estates Pvt Ltd. The company is alleged to have collected investor deposits through investment schemes promising high returns before defaulting. Searches at premises linked to its former managing director form part of the inquiry into alleged laundering. The underlying alleged fraud had previously resulted in a CBI case and multiple police FIRs.
    August 5, 2026
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    Political restraint in public communications was urged, alongside adherence to principal-speaker protocol during press conferences and media interactions.
    Political restraint in public communications was urged after a social-media remark directed at Sunetra Pawar was criticised as ideologically irresponsible. It was stated that regret alone was insufficient and that leaders should exercise care in public comments. Press-conference protocol was also emphasised: the principal dignitary should respond to media questions, and those seated alongside should not participate in the interaction. Party colleagues were expected to act more responsibly in future media engagements.
    August 5, 2026
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    Neutral monetary policy stance continues as inflation clarity is awaited, alongside cooperative banking and lending-rate transparency measures.
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    August 5, 2026
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    Repo rate stability preserves the policy stance amid lower inflation projections, stronger growth expectations and external-sector resilience.
    Monetary policy maintained the repo rate at 5.25 per cent following a unanimous policy committee decision. The growth forecast for FY27 was marginally increased, while the inflation projection was lowered. Inflation conditions remain uncertain because of monsoon, El Nino and geopolitical developments. Liquidity remained in surplus, and external-sector indicators reflected a current-account surplus, buoyant foreign direct investment inflows, renewed foreign portfolio investment inflows, and adequate foreign-exchange reserves.
    August 5, 2026
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    Polymer currency notes target improved durability as monetary policy remains data-dependent and rupee management pursues an orderly trajectory.
    Polymer currency notes are targeted for circulation at the beginning of the next financial year, subject to implementation proceeding as planned. They are intended to improve durability, especially for lower-denomination notes with high circulation velocity. Monetary policy decisions will remain data-dependent and focused on aligning headline inflation with its medium-term target. Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) scheme inflows are expected to remain healthy until closure, with no proposal for premature termination. Rupee management aims to maintain an orderly exchange-rate trajectory.
    August 5, 2026
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    Customs anti-smuggling enforcement targets gold concealed as silver-coated armlets following passenger profiling and personal search at airport.
    Customs officers intercepted two passengers arriving from Istanbul after Advance Passenger Information System profiling and their activation of the Door Frame Metal Detector. A personal search recovered approximately one kilogram of gold, silver-coated and concealed as traditional armlets worn on the upper arms. The gold was seized under the Customs Act, a smuggling case was registered, and investigation was initiated into the source and any wider smuggling network.
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    Closing auction price discovery for eligible derivatives shares begins as monetary policy retains the repo rate and neutral stance.
    The Reserve Bank retained the repo rate with a neutral stance amid uncertainty over energy prices and supply disruptions. Stock exchanges introduced the Closing Auction Session in the equity cash segment for eligible shares with futures and options contracts. This auction-based mechanism determines closing prices of eligible stocks and aims to make price discovery more transparent and robust.
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    Services-sector growth slowed as weaker demand, competition and postponed orders moderated business activity, while employment improved modestly.
    Services-sector growth slowed as domestic and export orders moderated amid weaker demand, competitive pressures, softer market conditions and postponed orders. Output continued to expand, but at its weakest pace in more than four years. Employment growth improved modestly, while input costs rose and firms increased selling prices. Business confidence remained positive but declined, and the composite output indicator weakened due principally to the sharp slowdown in services activity.
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    Interim bail conditions require residence outside the state and trial attendance in alleged manpower commission corruption proceedings.
    Interim bail was granted to Anwar Dhebar in a matter involving alleged corruption and an illegal commission mechanism linked to a state marketing corporation. Conditions require him to remain outside Chhattisgarh, attend the trial court, and provide his residential address. The allegations concern manpower supply agencies allegedly being compelled to pay commissions for clearance of legitimate bills, with proceeds routed through intermediaries. The case was registered under the Indian Penal Code and the Prevention of Corruption Act.
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    The Taxation and Other Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2026 proposes to replace the Income-tax (Amendment) Ordinance, 2026 and amend payment-system and tax laws. It would prohibit charges on notified electronic payments, revise safe-harbour conditions for eligible investment funds and fund managers, and expand tax exemptions for Government securities, qualifying rough-diamond sales and bonded-warehouse component storage. It also modifies exemptions concerning electronic-goods contract manufacturing, data centres and business-trust dividends, while imposing a differentiated surcharge on qualifying special purpose vehicles. A separately included appropriation bill authorises excess expenditure from the Consolidated Fund of India.
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    Monetary policy rates were retained without change for a third consecutive review, with a neutral stance maintained amid uncertainty over energy prices and supply disruptions associated with the West Asia crisis. The policy assessment noted retail inflation above the medium-term target, alongside an upward revision to growth expectations and a downward revision to the inflation projection. Continued rupee depreciation was linked to higher oil prices, capital outflows, widening trade deficits and a stronger US dollar.
    August 5, 2026
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    Monetary policy expectations shape equity sentiment as softer crude prices and foreign investment support domestic financial assets.
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    Foreign exchange market movement strengthens as lower crude prices and monetary policy signals influence the rupee's direction.
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    Dearness allowance arrears must be cleared promptly, while the government examines legal remedies and continues its structured liquidation plan.
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    August 4, 2026
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    Money-laundering investigation examines alleged fraudulent industrial plot allotments, benami holdings and diversion of plots to residential use.
    A money-laundering investigation under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act examines alleged irregularities in industrial-plot allotments involving corporation officials, private persons, property dealers and alleged benamidars. The inquiry concerns alleged use of fictitious firms and false addresses to obtain plots, allotments to relatives and associates, and alleged diversion or change of land use from industrial to residential purposes. These activities are alleged to have generated private gains while causing loss to the public exchequer.
    August 4, 2026
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    Rupee exchange-rate movement gains support from capital inflows, while oil prices, dollar strength and monetary policy shape sentiment.
    Rupee exchange-rate movement was supported by foreign capital inflows and improved global risk sentiment, while elevated crude-oil prices and a stronger US dollar constrained gains. Market attention shifted to monetary policy, overseas dollar-deposit incentives and easier foreign access to government bonds, which were reported to support capital inflows and India's external position. A cautious approach to the benchmark repo rate was expected amid assessment of the West Asia conflict.

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      Customs & Trade

      Critical minerals give China an edge in trade negotiations

      June 12, 2025

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      Ganzhou (China), Jun 12 (AP) China's dominance over critical minerals in global supply chains was a powerful bargaining chip in trade talks between Beijing and Washington that concluded with both sides saying they have a framework to pursue a deal.

      China has spent decades building the world's main industrial chain for mining and processing such materials, which are used in many industries such as electronics, advanced manufacturing, defence and health care.

      Mines and factories in and around Ganzhou, a key production hub for rare earths, underpin China's control over the minerals. Many residents grew up collecting rocks containing the valuable minerals from the forested hills surrounding the southern city and today make a living from mining, trading or processing them.

      Critical minerals as a trade issue Responding to ever higher tariffs and other controls on advanced technology, China told exporters of certain key rare earths and other critical minerals to obtain licences for every shipment abroad. Approvals can take weeks, leading to supply chain disruptions in the US and other countries.

      President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that China would make it easier for American industry to obtain much-needed magnets and rare earth minerals, clearing the way for talks to continue between the world's two biggest economies. In return, Trump said, the US will stop efforts to revoke the visas of Chinese nationals on US college campuses.

      But details remain scarce. Beijing has not confirmed what the negotiators agreed to, and Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump himself have yet to sign off on it.

      The Chinese Commerce Ministry said on Saturday it had approved a "certain number" of export licences for rare earth products, apparently acknowledging Trump's personal request to Xi during a phone call last week. And on Wednesday, the Ganzhou-based rare-earth conglomerate JL MAG Rare-Earth Co confirmed it had obtained some export licences for shipments to destinations including the US, Europe and Southeast Asia.

      Experts say, however, Beijing is unlikely to do away with the permit system enabling it to control access to those valuable resources.

      The only scenario in which China might deregulate its critical minerals export is if the US first fully removes tariffs imposed on Chinese goods as part of the trade war, said Wang Yiwei, a professor of international affairs at Renmin University, echoing the Chinese government's earlier stance.

      "Without that," he said, "it will be difficult to blame China for continuing to strengthen its export controls." An industry built over decades with government support In 1992, Deng Xiaoping, the leader who launched China's ascent as the world's biggest manufacturing power, famously said "the Middle East has oil, China has rare earths," signalling a desire to leverage access to the key minerals.

      Several generations later, Beijing has made its rich reserves of rare earths, a group of 17 minerals that are abundant in the earth's crust but hard, expensive and environmentally polluting to process, a key element of China's economic security. In 2019, during a visit to a rare earth processing plant in Ganzhou, Xi described rare earths as a "vital strategic resource." China today has an essential monopoly over "heavy rare earths," used for making powerful, heat-resistance magnets used in industries such as defence and electric vehicles.

      The country also produces around 80 per cent of the world's tungsten, gallium and antimony, and 60 per cent of the world's germanium -– all minerals used in the making of semiconductors, among other advanced technologies.

      The risks of dependency on Chinese suppliers first came into focus in 2010, when Beijing suspended rare earths exports to Japan due to a territorial dispute. The ban was lifted after about two months, but as a precaution, Japan invested in rare earths processing plants in other countries and began stockpiling the materials.

      Beijing's across-the-board requirement for export licences for some critical minerals has put pressure on world electronics manufacturers and automakers.

      Some auto parts makers in Europe have shut down production lines due to delays in supply deliveries, according to the European Association of Automotive Suppliers. In the US, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said a shortage of rare earths is affecting his company's work on humanoid robots.

      China's critical minerals resources are dwindling In the drab industrial hub of Ganzhou, cradled by the scenic Dayu Mountains, the US-China trade war is still a distant stressor. Miners and small mineral traders interviewed by The Associated Press said they are more concerned about depleting the mountains' once-abundant resources.

      Zhong, a tungsten factory manager in Ganzhou who would only give his last name, worked his way up to manager from a miner, but he is unsure there is a future for him and others in the industry.

      "I find growing difficulties to source tungsten these days," he said, adding that smaller mines and trading companies are slowly disappearing as the resources are dwindling. Tungsten is an ultra-hard metal used in armour-piercing ammunition, nuclear reactors and semiconductors.

      At least five tungsten mines have closed in the area in recent years, according to state media. Remaining reserves are deeper and harder to extract and process after decades of exploitation, said Li Shangkui, chairman of the Ganzhou-based Jiangxi Yuean Advanced Materials Co Ltd.

      Processing factories in Ganzhou now routinely source materials from other provinces or other countries. Zhong's plant imports some raw materials from places like Africa and Cambodia.

      Major state-owned and private companies in Ganzhou are also ramping up investments abroad. Tungsten producer Ganzhou Haisheng, for instance, announced last year a USD 25 million investment in a new tungsten plant in Thailand.

      Whatever the challenges in procuring raw materials, China likely will seek to maintain its dominance in critical minerals, said Fabian Villalobos, an engineer and critical minerals expert at the RAND think tank.

      The US lags far behind China on critical minerals Between 2020 and 2023, the US imported at least 70 per cent of the rare earth compounds it used from China, according to the US Geological Survey. It has diversified its sources in recent years, but still mainly relies on China.

      Since beginning his second term in office, Trump has made improving access to critical minerals a matter of national security. But the US has an incredibly long way to go to catch up with China, experts say.

      The sole operational US rare earths mine, in Mountain Pass, California, is unable to separate heavy rare earths. It sends its ore to China for processing. The US Defense Department has provided funding to the mine's owner, MP Materials, to build new separation facilities. It will take months to build and still only produce a fraction of what is needed.

      Friction over the issue has opened the way for government-backed financing that was unavailable before, said Mark Smith, who ran the Mountain Pass mine in the early 2010s and now leads NioCorp. It is seeking about USD 780 million in financing through the US Export-Import Bank to build a processing facility in Nebraska for critical minerals including rare earths.

      The Defense Department has committed USD 439 million to building domestic rare earth supply chains, but building a complete mining and processing industrial chain like China's could take decades.

      "There are going to be some real issues here unless we can figure out how to get along with China for a period of time while we're developing our own resources and our mainstream processing," Smith said.

      The spotlight on critical minerals also provides opportunities for smaller miners to invest in extracting and processing some critical minerals, such as tungsten, considered "niche" because they are needed in relatively small amounts in key industries, said Milo McBride, an expert on sustainability and geopolitics at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

      "For many of these companies, the business strategy hedges on a scenario where the US and China become more confrontational and where trade relations become more uncomfortable," McBride said. "And all of a sudden, what was once an uneconomic project somewhere outside of China starts to make more sense." (AP) RUK RUK

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