Milan, Jan 13 (360info) Daesh’s influence and capabilities have been severely degraded in the past few years. In the Iraqi and Syrian contexts, the group is a shadow of its former self, particularly when compared with its apex between 2014 and 2017.

Yet, despite the coordinated efforts of the Global Coalition against Daesh and the sacrifices endured by the Iraqi and Syrian peoples, the organisation known as Islamic State (IS) continues to pose a significant challenge.

Over more than 20 years, IS and its earlier iterations have repeatedly demonstrated their resilience and capacity to endure, exploiting specific conditions to re-emerge and pursue their aspirations. The conditions that enabled the group to regain strength between 2011 and 2014 – including Syria’s civil war, the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, the marginalisation of Arab Sunni communities, and policies under Iraq’s then Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki – were exceptional.

Lingering impacts of a “perfect storm” Yet, the legacy of this “perfect storm” lingers. Some of the conditions that enabled IS’s resurgence, such as those already mentioned, remain unresolved. Furthermore, the group’s ideological resilience is a critical factor. Despite the discredit brought upon it by its crimes, Daesh’s ideology persists, capable of exploiting local grievances for its own purposes.

In today’s context of global instability, monitoring IS’s evolution and renewing international support for the Tigris and Euphrates regions – designated by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as the heartland of his “caliphate” – are paramount. This urgency is particularly acute in Syria, where the fall of the Assad regime has further upended the country’s fragile equilibrium.

Daesh’s presence in Syria While the battle of Baghouz in 2019 marked the end of Daesh’s territorial base, the group’s presence in Syria remains significant. Its operational capacity is evidenced by the attacks it has conducted in recent years: 1,055 in 2019, 608 in 2020, 368 in 2021, 297 in 2022, and 121 in 2023. Alarmingly, 2024 is on track to surpass previous years, with over 250 attacks claimed by mid-November. Some analyses suggest the actual figures may be more than double.

Although IS no longer controls large swathes of Syrian territory, it has benefited from the country’s instability and the presence of competing power centres. These factors have allowed IS to exploit limited control by key actors over their territories, internal rivalries, and local grievances.

As in Iraq, the group has avoided heavily monitored areas, focusing instead on launching attacks in regions where its adversaries have limited presence. The group has mounted significant operations in Deir al-Zor, Raqqa, central Syria (Hama and Homs), and parts of Aleppo governorate. The location of three out of four IS leaders killed since 2019 – near Idlib and Afrin – underscores its broader presence in Syria.

Tactics of resilience Beyond attacks, IS regularly employs mafia-style tactics, including targeted assassinations, intimidation campaigns, and seizing military positions or territories for short durations. These strategies reinforce its presence on the ground and maintain its relevance.

A key target for IS remains the network of detention facilities in northeastern Syria, controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). These prisons house thousands of IS fighters, along with women and children linked to the group. IS views these individuals as assets, both for their potential contribution to the organisation and for the propaganda value of their liberation. Escalating violence in the region risks turning this scenario into reality.

Support Syria’s reconstruction Though weakened, IS retains considerable influence in Syria. The group continues to exploit the country’s enduring crisis, territorial fragmentation, power rivalries, and economic struggles. These factors enable IS to bide its time, awaiting favourable conditions for a resurgence.

The international community must act decisively to support Syrians as they rebuild their country and confront its challenges. This is not only a moral imperative but also essential to preventing Syria from once again becoming a launch pad for terrorism and instability. (360info) SCY SCY