<h1>Economic contraction risk from pandemic; fiscal stimulus prioritising health and income support can limit global downturn.</h1> The COVID-19 pandemic risks global economic contraction in 2020 through disrupted supply chains, collapsed tourism and trade, and steep declines in private consumption, investment and exports. The severity depends on the duration of movement restrictions and the scale and efficacy of fiscal responses: well designed stimulus prioritising health spending and income support can limit recessionary impact, whereas inadequate responses and prolonged lockdowns will deepen demand shocks, raise unemployment, and spill over to developing economies dependent on tourism and commodity exports.