Solana has returned to the spotlight as shifting conditions in the crypto market push SOL into a vulnerable zone. During the ongoing correction, the asset is being pressured on several fronts, including the first wave of outflows from Solana exchange-traded funds, a decline in total value locked, and a high-profile security incident. Three blows to Solana The Solana market is going through its most serious stress test in months. For the first time since launch, U.S. Solana exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows estimated at $8 million to $8.2 million in a single day. The primary driver was the 21Shares Solana ETF (TSOL), which saw $34 million in outflows. Other funds, including BSOL, GSOL, and FSOL, posted moderate inflows that partially offset the losses. Even so, institutional pressure has become noticeable, especially because ETF inflows had previously been a major source of support for Solana’s growth.

On-chain activity has weakened as well. Active addresses declined by 6%, fees fell by 16%, and total value locked dropped 20% in November alone, down 32% from the September peak. The sharpest declines are evident across major protocols such as Jito, Jupiter, Raydium, and Sanctum. The combination of softer network demand and institutional outflows creates a negative fundamental backdrop that strongly influences current expectations for Solana’s price.

Corporate developments are adding further strain. Upexi, one of the largest publicly traded companies accumulating SOL, announced a private placement of shares and warrants worth up to $23 million to expand its Solana reserves. Shortly afterward, the company reported a steep decline in asset value, posting losses of more than $200 million in dollar terms as SOL’s price fell from its September peak.

Market fails to hold momentum As fundamental indicators weaken, the Solana market continues to struggle with key technical levels. The latest rebound stalled at $145, a resistance area that has rejected the price three times in recent weeks. Investors now view these repeated pullbacks as a sign of diminishing buying momentum.

TVL dynamics reinforce the weaker outlook. Nearly all major DeFi projects on Solana are experiencing liquidity outflows, reducing overall market depth. The situation was further aggravated by the $36 million Upbit hack, where most of the stolen assets were Solana-based tokens. As a result, the South Korean exchange temporarily suspended SOL deposits and withdrawals.

Despite occasional attempts to recover, broader market conditions remain tense. Investors are cautious, liquidity is fragmented, and market reactions to news have become increasingly sharp.

A bearish flag targeting $100 Solana’s technical setup also points to elevated downside risks. The six-hour chart shows formation of a classic bearish flag, a continuation pattern that typically appears after a sharp downward move. The pattern began to take shape after the local peak near $170 and has since developed into a narrow upward-sloping consolidation channel.

Flag support is located near $140. If SOL breaks below this level, the technical target of the bearish flag indicates a potential decline to the $99-$100 range, representing an approximate 30% drop from current levels. Traders note that the $145 resistance zone remains critical for any meaningful reversal, but slowing momentum makes a breakdown increasingly likely.

Where Solana is heading What can investors expect from a short-term Solana price prediction? Taken together, both fundamental and technical indicators point to elevated risk of a move toward the $100 area, even despite periodic bursts of buying interest.

Solana retains long-term potential supported by strong developer activity and the presence of major corporate holders, but the short-term outlook remains difficult. ETF-related pressure, weakening network metrics, and the aftermath of the Upbit hack create conditions in which any recovery remains fragile.

For the outlook to improve, Solana would need to show stronger network activity, renewed liquidity in the DeFi segment, and stabilization in institutional flows. At present, the asset continues to trade under the weight of several negative factors, leaving the bearish scenario as the dominant one.

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