Provisional refund sanctioning based on system risk scoring allows conditional provisional payouts with officer discretion and recovery mechanisms. Refund applications classified as low-risk by the system shall have a significant portion of the claimed refund sanctioned provisionally, subject to existing FORM issuance timelines; the proper officer may, with reasons recorded in writing, refuse provisional sanction and undertake detailed examination. Notified categories are excluded from provisional refunds and statutory eligibility conditions remain applicable. If provisional sanctioning exceeds the finally admissible amount, the officer shall issue a show cause notice and recover the excess under the prescribed refund and demand provisions. The risk-based provisional regime applies to applications filed on or after the effective date, with an interim similar treatment for inverted duty structure claims.